#Investors
#Savings Banks
#Banks

20.07.2018

Markets and Trends 2018: Much going on – nobody cares!

Helaba Research takes stock halfway through the year

Dr. Gertrud Traud, Helaba’s Chief Economist, and her team take stock of Markets and Trends 2018 and find that the need for adjustment is very limited. Referring to the overall forecast, Traud commented: “The key messages of our baseline scenario are still valid. However, in view of elevated political risks, we have raised the probability of our negative alternative scenario from 10 % to 15 % and reduced that of our positive alternative scenario from 20 % to 15 %”.

Economic sentiment: The United States ahead of the rest

In 2018, the global economy will grow at a similarly dynamic rate as in the previous year. For the United States, there are signs of an acceleration in growth in 2018 from 2.3 % to 2.8 %, even if the unpredictable nature of trade policy continues to weigh on the invest­ment climate. The euro area and Germany will not be able to maintain their high growth rates – and inflation has returned: price rises are hovering at around the European Central Bank’s (ECB) inflation target of 2 %.

Central banks less expan­sionary

The US Federal Reserve and the ECB are both gradually reducing the extent of monetary expansion in their own ways: while the Fed is unwinding its portfolio of securities as planned, the ECB will initially halve its purchasing programme from EUR 30 billion to EUR 15 billion before terminating it completely in December. However, it is unlikely to make any changes to the key interest rate until the second half of 2019, when it is expected to raise it from zero to 0.25 percent.

„The key messages of our baseline scenario are still valid. However, in view of elevated political risks, we have raised the probability of our negative alternative scenario from 10 % to 15 % and reduced that of our positive alternative scenario from 20 % to 15 %“

Dr. Gertrud Traud
Chief Economist of Helaba

Recommendations for investors

Although continuing (geo)political tensions, trade disputes and looming question marks over the economy are the subject of intense discussions among market participants, investors have so far remained fairly relaxed. A correction of high valuation levels is still outstanding. Since there is a danger of declining prices on bond markets, shorter and medium durations should be the first choice for new invest­ments. Over the next few months, the DAX is likely to test the lower end of a range of between 10,500 and 13,500 points. In terms of its level at the end of the year, we stick to our previous forecast of 12,300 index points. Real estate remains attractive. Thanks to robust demand for land and a persi­stently low level of interest rates, prices are still rising in many submarkets. Furthermore, it is likely that the price of gold will soon bottom out. That is why Dr. Gertrud Traud strongly recommends putting this asset class onto the “shopping list”, adding: “Due to a renewed increase in the need for security, the gold price is likely to rise towards a level of 1,400 USD/oz”.

You can find a detailed update to Markets and Trends 2018 here:


Ursula-Brita Krück
Deputy Press Officer

We, the Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen Girozentrale (Helaba), use cookies that are absolutely necessary to provide you with our website. No additional cookies will be set for the duration of your visit to this website if you close the banner by clicking on "Decline". If you give your consent, we will use additional cookies to process information about your use of our website for the purposes of statistics (such as measuring reach) and marketing (such as displaying personalized content).

Your consent is voluntary and not necessary for the use of the website. By clicking on "Settings", you can individually determine in detail which cookies we may use based on your consent.

You can also consent to all additional cookies at the same time by clicking on "Accept".

You can revoke your consent at any time via the "shield icon" in the toolbar on each page or change your cookie settings there.

Cookies

When you visit our website, Helaba makes use of required and optional cookies. Cookies are small text files that are stored on your computer and saved by your browser. Their purpose is to make our range of services more user-friendly, for example so that you do not have to re-confirm an automatically generated disclaimer more than once. Cookies that we use are so-called “session cookies” because they are automatically reset at the end of your visit to our website.

Further information on the use of cookies on helaba.com can be found at Data protection.

cookie [publisher]purposestorage period / Follow-up processingthird country transfer
disclaimer_disclosureRequirements [helaba]necessary: Verification when accessing certain (sub) areas of the websitesessionno
disclaimer_residenceGermany [helaba]necessary: Verification when accessing certain (sub) areas of the websitesessionno
hideCookieNotice [helaba]necessary: Saves that the cookie or data protection notice will not be requested every time you visit.30 daysno
WSESSIONID [helaba]necessary: Standard cookie to use with PHP session data.sessionno

The sole purpose of using analytical services on our website is to optimise the online information we provide. Data collected in this way, such as IP address, date or time of the request, contents of the page accessed or the browser used do not enable any users to be directly identified. Analysis by Helaba of a user’s data is not intended to identify any individuals or conduct any profiling, in order to, for instance, send online advertising to visitors of our website.

You  find more information on statistics cookies here: Data protection

cookie [publisher]purposestorage period / Follow-up processingthird country transfer
_et_coid [etracker]statistic: cookie detection2 years / Evaluation to improve the user experience of our websiteno
allowLoadExternRessources [helaba]statistic: Saves the user decision that external components may be loaded automatically.30 days / Evaluation to improve the user experience of our websiteno
allowTracking [helaba]statistic: Saves the user decision that visitor behavior may be tracked.30 days / Evaluation to improve the user experience of our websiteno
BT_ctst [etracker]statistic: Is used to detect whether cookies are activated in the visitor's browser or not.session / Evaluation to improve the user experience of our websiteno
BT_pdc [etracker]statistic: Contains Base64-coded visitor history data (is customer, newsletter recipient, visitor ID, displayed smart messages) for personalization.2 years / Evaluation to improve the user experience of our websiteno
BT_sdc [etracker]statistic: Contains Base64-encoded data of the current visitor session (referrer, number of pages, number of seconds since the beginning of the session), which is used for personalization purposes.session / Evaluation to improve the user experience of our websiteno
isSdEnabled [etracker]statistic: Detection of whether the visitor's scroll depth is measured.1 hour / Evaluation to improve the user experience of our websiteno

On our website, we use a so-called re-targeting technology provided by The UK Trade Desk Ltd., 10th Floor, 1 Bartholomew Close, London EC1A 7BL, United Kingdom. With this technology, cookies (so-called third-party cookies) are stored on your hard drive when you visit our website. These cookies are either permanent or temporary cookies that are automatically deleted after a certain period of time has elapsed.

You find more information on marketing cookies here: Data protection

cookie [publisher]purposestorage period / Follow-up processingthird country transfer
EDAAT [.adsrvr.org]Marketing: Stores a temporary security token for EDAA sign-out pages such as http://www. youronlinechoices. com/1 hour / evaluation for the playout of banners for marketing purposesyes / United Kingdom
TDCPM [.adsrvr.org]Marketing: Matching IDs to avoid redundant calls.365 days / evaluation for the playout of banners for marketing purposesyes/ United Kingdom
TDID [.adsrvr.org]Marketing: recognition of web profiles over time on different websites.365 days / evaluation for the playout of banners for marketing purposesyes / United Kingdom
TTDOptOut [.adsrvr.org]Marketing: Stores the decision to opt out of re-targeting.5 years / evaluation for the playout of banners for marketing purposesyes / United Kingdom
TTDOptOutOfDataSale [.adsrvr.org]Marketing: Stores the decision against selling data to third parties.5 years / evaluation for the playout of banners for marketing purposesyes / United Kingdom
No choice made so far
Partial selection made
Agreed to all cookies