---
title: "SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update"
url: https://www.helaba.com/en/ssa-and-financials-weekly-market-update-37
type: dd_research
language: en
updated: 2026-09-28
keywords: Renten, Weekly Market Update_englisch
---

# SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update

Focus on: SSA & Financials 11 August 2022 © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 11 August 2022 1 of 6 Research & Advisory Weekly Market Update Primary market environment: Risk aversion has eased somewhat in the meantime. However, in view of a number of uncertainty factors such as economic and inflation concerns, tensions be- tween China and the USA, the Ukraine crisis, the development of energy prices or the govern- ment crisis in Italy, this can quickly change again. The temporary easing phase seems to have come to an end again, especially for covered bonds, as shown by the increasing red coloration of our spread indicator in the short term. In the case of senior unsecured bank bonds, spreads recently narrowed further - supported by the low level of issuance activity - but here, too, our indicator signals a risk aversion above the longer-term average. Primary market barometer Sources: Helaba Research & Advisory In some federal states the summer holidays are already ending. How- ever, there is no end in sight to the summer lull on the SSA primary mar- ket. The abstinence of issuers, which has lasted for many days, is causing spreads to tighten. Issuing activity in the covered bond segment came to a complete stand- still this week. This was despite the fact that the placement of the Deka- Bank sub-benchmark in the previous week showed that the market - if the conditions are right - is quite recep- tive. The two limiting factors - the report- ing season and the summer break - are coming to an end and are thus losing their paralyzing influence on the primary market. We expect issu- ance activity for senior unsecured bank bonds to pick up as of next week. Covered Bonds Senior Unsecured SSA Back to risk-off mode Spread trend indicator\*, ASWspread change versus … \*ASW levels standardized and 2T-smoothed, since 14.2.22 changed calculation of ASW levels by Markit. Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory IBOXX EURO 1 day 1 week 4 week 13 weeks 52 weeks 104 weeks Germany 0,02 -0,01 -0,29 -0,82 -2,57 -3,65 European Union 0,09 -0,05 -0,29 0,68 0,21 -0,70 Germany Covered 0,12 0,18 -0,06 0,73 0,64 -0,32 EU Covered 0,03 0,05 0,00 0,25 0,26 -0,01 Banks senior preferred 0,02 -0,08 -0,79 -0,15 1,55 0,55 Banks senior bail-in (SNP) 0,01 -0,05 -0,70 0,00 1,63 0,62 Banks subordinated 0,00 -0,04 -0,88 0,03 1,42 0,34 Supranational 0,09 0,03 -0,17 0,74 0,16 -0,48 Agencies 0,05 -0,05 -0,30 -0,11 -0,83 -1,33 Sub-Sovereigns Germany 0,06 -0,02 -0,05 0,11 -1,12 -1,28 Sub-Sovereigns 0,07 -0,08 -0,27 0,27 -0,48 -1,15 strong middle weak unchanged weak middle strong spread widening spread tightening Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 11 August 2022 2 of 6 SSA Summer is showing itself from its best side. What pleases many people causes a lull in issuance on the primary market and this to an extent not seen for a long time. This in turn has a clear impact on spreads, which continue to narrow. Nevertheless, we should also look ahead, especially since many SSA addresses still have to bring some issues to the market in the second half of the year. For example, a volume of EUR 70 billion (incl. EU) is still to be expected for the "E" names. This sum is by no means small, especially as the market has been used to the ECB's QE since 2015. Moreover, we believe that the ECB's new tool - the TPI - excludes the Su- pras. This means that there is a chance that some SSA issuers will come to the market with attractive NIPs in the autumn, which should give the secondary market some breathing space. Covered Bonds Our expectation expressed here last week that a revival of primary market activity was not to be ex- pected has (unfortunately) been fully confirmed this week. Not one transaction could be booked. The reasons for this are once again the expiry of the Q2 reporting period with the associated "black out" periods, the lack of final approvals or confirmations in the implementation of the European covered bond legislation and, last but not least, the peak of the holiday season. Outlook: Next Monday, the feast of the Assumption of the Virgin Mary will be celebrated in several Christian de- nominations. In parts of Bavaria, Saarland, Austria and Liechtenstein, as well as in eight Swiss cantons, 15 August is a public holiday. This feast is called "Dormitio" in Latin, i.e. "Dormition", and so we expect a slow reawakening of primary market activity. We hear that transactions are already being prepared and RfPs (Request for Proposal) have been sent out. In addition, first transactions in non-EUR currencies (e.g. GBP, AUD) and also in Scandinavia could be observed. Within the framework of APP, the ECB reduced its covered bond portfolio (CBPP3) by EUR 1.657 billion in the last reporting week. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication none Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM €-SSA-Issues week of 8 August 2022 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication none Quellen: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM €-Covered Bond-Issues week of 8 August 2022 "The summer drought continues in the SSA universe. We have not seen as few primary market issues as in the last 10 days for a long time. This is one of the reasons why we are seeing very strong ASW performance in SSAs, with spreads tightening. The lack of benchmark issuance only partly explains this movement: new highs in German swap spreads and a general risk-on sentiment also contribute." Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 11 August 2022 3 of 6 Senior Unsecured Issuance activity for senior unsecured bank bonds in EUR benchmark format came to a complete standstill this week. The main reasons for this are the ongoing quarterly reporting season at Euro- pean banks and the general summer break. However, issuers took advantage of the comparatively strong investor demand in other currencies and were able to place issues very successfully in USD (BNPP AT1, Credit Suisse Group) or in AUD (BNG) and GBP (DNB), for example. In our view, this confirms that the market is fundamentally receptive and that open market windows that present themselves can be exploited. The reporting season is approaching its finale. Most banks were able to meet or even exceed expectations. The credit fundamentals were robust; in this context, the stable low problem loan ratios and high capital buffers should be mentioned in particular. In addition, rising interest rates supported net interest income. However, the macroeconomic outlook is a cause for concern. Many banks are preparing for an increase in loan defaults by 2023 at the latest. Outlook: In the coming week, the two limiting factors, the re- porting season and the summer break, become less important. Institutions have not yet ful- filled their issuance plans for this year. High maturities and strict regulatory requirements for bail-in capital are creating further refinancing needs. Re- cent key rate hikes, for example by the Bank of England, and political turbulence, for example in Italy, appear to have been largely factored into valuations for the time being, with the result that spreads have recently been sta- ble or even slightly firmer. If the market environment remains stable, we expect the primary market to pick up as early as next week. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication none Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM €-Senior Preferred-Issues week of 8 August 2022 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication none Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM €-Senior Non-Preferred-Issues week of 8 August 2022 “Last Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) raised the key interest rate by 50 bps as expected. The U.S. labor market data published the following day were surprisingly strong and caused fears on the other side of the Atlantic that the Fed might maintain the brisk pace of its 75bps rate hikes in September. While the iTraxx indi- ces moved sideways, the cash market was surprisingly calm about this news and was able to build on the pre- vious week's good performance. The bulk of capital flows continue to be in small sizes. ETF funds continue to be the driving force, although one or the other asset manager now also dares to enter the ring again. The summer slump can be felt and the change from reporting season to issuance season is longed for. Until then, trading will remain sluggish and characterized by illiquidity.” Comment from the Helaba trading floor US inflation remains high % YoY Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 11 August 2022 4 of 6 Short news 8/8 Situation in Italy: After Standard & Poor's had already lowered the outlook for Italy from positive to stable at a rating of BBB on July 29, the rating agency Moody's now followed suit. It lowered the outlook from stable to negative, with a rating of Baa3, which is only one notch above junk bond level. 8/4 Deposit guarantee data: The EBA has published updated data on deposit guarantee schemes across the Eu- ropean Economic Area. From 2020 to 2021, the amount of available funding held by deposit guarantee schemes across the European Economic Area increased significantly by 19%. 8/4 Interest rate environment: The Bank of England raised its key rate by 50 basis points - its largest single increase since 1995 - to 1.75%, and warned that the U.K. is now projected to fall into recession that would last for five consecutive quarters starting in the final three months of 2022. \* Closing prices from the previous day Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory, \* ASW-Spreads Market Data (current\*, vs. 1 week, vs. 4 weeks) E-STOXX 600 Banks 132 1,80% 8,89% iBoxx € Cov. Germany 5,5 2,6 -1,6 iTraxx Senior Financial 128,8 -2,2 9,6 10Yr-Yield 0,89 0,02 -0,26 iBoxx € Cov. Bonds 13,7 2,7 -1,2 iBoxx € Supranational 3,0 1,91 -2,79 Swap 10J 1,76 0,07 -0,20 iBoxx € Banks PS 65,9 -2,7 -21,2 iBoxx € Agencies -17,1 -0,20 -6,40 iBoxx € Germany -80,7 -2,64 -7,28 iBoxx Banks NPS 104,8 -2,7 -24,5 iBoxx € Sub-Sov. Germany 5,0 1,11 -1,71 iBoxx € EU 1,4 1,33 -4,08 iBoxx Banks Subordinated 182,7 -3,6 -59,2 iBoxx € Sub-Sovereign 16,2 0,33 -4,45 Leisure tip for the weekend: European Elvis Festival Do you have ideas for leisure tips? We would be happy to receive your suggestions at research@helaba.de. Source: www.bad-nauheim.de/de/erlebnisreich/festivals-kulturelles/european-elvis-festival From 12th to 14th August 2022 the 20th European Elvis Festival will take place in Bad Nauheim. At this event, fans from all over the world celebrate their idol once a year. The festival is always organized around the time of the anniver- sary of Elvis Presley's death (16th August). The program offers not only famous cover bands, Elvis movies and numerous Cadillacs, but also a special exhibi- tion about the "King of Rock'n Roll". In addition, there will be a music contest, in which the best interpretation of Elvis songs is searched. Besides the festi- val, the latest biographical film about Elvis Presley can be seen in the cine- mas. The film was released on 23rd June 2022. More information: Elvis Festival Bad Nauheim Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 11 August 2022 5 of 6 Chartbook SSA, Covered Bonds, Senior Unsecured SSA: Primary volumes SSA: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW in bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2020 2021 2022 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Aug. 21 Okt. 21 Dez. 21 Feb. 22 Apr. 22 Jun. 22 Aug. 22 Sub-Sovereigns Agencies Supranationals Sub-Sovereigns Germany Covered Primary volumes Covered Bonds: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW in bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2022 2020 2021 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Aug.21 Okt.21 Dez.21 Feb.22 Apr.22 Jun.22 Aug.22 EUR Covered Covered Germany Senior Primary volumes Senior Unsecured: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread in bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2021 SP 2020 SP 2022 SP 2020 SNP 2021 SNP 2022 SNP 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Aug.21 Okt.21 Dez.21 Feb.22 Apr.22 Jun.22 Aug.22 Banks Subordinated Banks Senior Bail-in Banks Senior Preferred Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 11 August 2022 6 of 6 News from Research & Advisory  FOCUS ON: COVERED BONDS – EUROPEAN COVERED BONDS: CENTRAL WEBSITE PROVIDES CLARITIY  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – LIVE DEALS – A USEFUL INDICATOR FOR PLANNING ISSUANCE  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – PRIMARY MARKET UPDATE EUR BENCHMARK BANK BONDS: Q2 2022  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – EUROPEAN BANKS: CLIMATE RISK STRESS TEST HIGHLIGHTS NEED FOR FURHTER ACTION  EUR CORPORATE BONDS: PRIMARY MARKET Q2 2022  EUROPEAN BANKS: ACTIVITIES BECOMING EVER GREENER  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE: SPAIN VERSUS FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE – STATE OF PLAY: AUSTRIA VERSUS FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE – STATE OF PLAY IN FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  COVERED-BOND-LAWS: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU REGULATION (VIDEO) Team of authors Publisher and editorial office Helaba Research & Advisory Editor: Stefan Rausch Corporate Research & Advisory Responsible: Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chefvolkswirtin/ Head of Research & Advisory Neue Mainzer Str. 52-58 60311 Frankfurt am Main T +49 69 / 91 32 - 20 Internet: www.helaba.com Disclaimer This publication has been prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains only non-binding analyses and forecasts of current and future market conditions. The information is based on sources which we consider to be reliable, but for whose accuracy, completeness or up-to-dateness we cannot assume any liability. All state- ments made in this publication are for information purposes only. They must not be understood as an offer or recommendation for investment de- cisions. Here you can subscribe to our newsletter: https://news.helaba.de/research/ Dr. Susanne Knips Senior Credit Analyst T 069/91 32-32 11 Sabrina Miehs, CESGA Head of FI & SSA Research Senior Advisor Sustainable Finance T 069/91 32-48 90 Christian Schmidt Covered Bond & SSA Analyst T 069/91 32-23 88

SSA: Lack of issuance activity causes tighter spreads. Covered Bonds: Hope for more activity. Senior: Primary market environment remains subdued. Senior Unsecured: Revitalization of primary market activity in EUR benchmark format foreseeable.