---
title: "SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update"
url: https://www.helaba.com/en/ssa-and-financials-weekly-market-update-29
type: dd_research
language: en
updated: 2026-09-28
keywords: Renten, Weekly Market Update_englisch
---

# SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update

Focus on: SSA & Financials 6 October 2022 © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 6 October 2022 1 of 7 Research & Advisory Weekly Market Update Primary market environment: The Ukraine war, interest rates and fears about the economy are still the main influencing factors. The government crisis in England did its part to keep volatility high. For equities, September was the worst month since the financial crisis. The collapse of Credit Suisse's share price triggered concerns about renewed turbulence on the markets. After a brief interim recovery, the mood of market participants has clouded over again. At the same time, the fun- damental environment does not promise much improvement. Primary market barometer Sources: Helaba Research & Advisory Overall, the mood in the SSA seg- ment is mixed. Tier 1 issuers/supras are enjoying good to very good in- vestor demand, while the smaller sub-sovereigns are finding it much more difficult to fill their books. With good market timing, in combi- nation with renowned issuer names, covereds with longer maturities of 5 or 6 years can also be placed, as the examples of CRH and Commerzbank show. Nevertheless, the trend to- wards shorter maturities is intact. Although the market remains recep- tive to this segment, issuers must of- fer attractive spreads to fill the order books. Investors remain very selec- tive. Due to regulatory requirements, among other things, issuers are nev- ertheless planning further transac- tions by the end of the year. Covered Bonds Senior Unsecured SSA Sentiment clouds over again Spread trend indicator\*, ASWspread change versus … \*ASW levels standardized and 2T-smoothed, since 14.2.22 changed calculation of ASW levels by Markit. Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory IBOXX EURO 1 day 1 week 4 week 13 weeks 52 weeks 104 weeks Germany 0,14 0,03 0,36 -0,08 -2,38 -3,05 European Union 0,04 0,30 0,56 0,23 0,88 -0,09 Germany Covered 0,13 0,14 0,16 -0,31 0,45 -0,16 EU Covered 0,03 0,04 0,05 -0,05 0,27 0,09 Banks senior preferred -0,02 0,59 0,65 0,34 2,61 1,66 Banks senior bail-in (SNP) -0,05 0,39 0,45 0,35 2,66 1,68 Banks subordinated -0,03 0,30 0,59 0,17 2,79 1,66 Supranational 0,04 0,17 0,27 -0,12 0,38 -0,35 Agencies 0,08 0,14 0,14 -0,43 -1,01 -1,43 Sub-Sovereigns Germany 0,02 0,07 0,09 -0,42 -1,11 -1,66 Sub-Sovereigns 0,02 0,19 0,29 -0,36 -0,35 -1,19 strong middle weak unchanged weak middle strong spread widening spread tightening Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 6 October 2022 2 of 7 SSA The German capital market, the most important platform for euro-denominated bonds, remained closed on Monday due to the holiday, so that primary market activity only picked up again somewhat from Tuesday. Overall, signs of fatigue are becoming increasingly visible. The recent appearance of the EFSF is an exception. Investors continued to demand its paper strongly. The order book was 4.3 times oversubscribed and the marketing spread narrowed from MS-17 to MS-19. For the EFSF, it was the last issue of the year, which we be- lieve further boosted demand. The Madrid region, on the other hand, struggled to reach its target volume. Outlook: Overall, a trend towards higher new issue premiums is emerging in the SSA segment. The demand side is also affected by the fact that asset managers have little free liquidity. Old bond portfolios can currently only be sold at a loss. We expect further issues in the coming weeks, but there is only a small need for refinancing on the part of the federal states and development banks. Covered Bonds The oversubscription rates currently ob- served for Covereds are limited com- pared to the first months of this year. The order books of Bank of Montreal and Singapore's DBS Bank were oversubscribed 1.2 and 1.3 times, respectively. In ad- dition, rising new issue premiums (NIP) of 8 and 7 bps respectively show that market conditions are increas- ingly challenging. In the case of UniCredit Bank Czech Republic & Slovakia's first mortgage-backed covered bond issue, the estimated NIP was as high as +15/+20 bps. But there is another way: On Wednesday, the French CRH was able to issue a "long" five-year cov- ered issue. Overall, however, it is noticeable that the transaction was optimised in terms of volume and not primarily in terms of spread, given the volatile market environment. With a final order book of just under 2.1 billion, the issue volume was set at 1.85 billion euros. While deals from the core segment are already struggling to cross the finish line, this is even more difficult for is- suers that do not belong to this group, despite some considerable NIPs. The same applies to the secondary mar- ket. With the exception of the ultra-short end, our trading sees predominantly selling interest in cash securities. The motivation is understandable, especially since the majority of bonds lost considerable price value in the course of the year and the low coupons from past times hardly offer a current interest rate. Outlook: The environment remains challenging. We do not expect the market conditions to change significantly in the coming days. Nevertheless, further issues by strong issuers are to be expected. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 2,375% EFSF AAA /AA/AA 3,500 Mrd. 11.04.2028 ms -19 Bp 04.10.2022 15,000 Mrd. ms - 17 area 2,822% Madrid Baa1 /A-/BBB 0,500 Mrd. 31.10.2029 SPGB +23 bp 04.10.2022 0,500 Mrd. SPGB +23 area 3,000% EIB Aaa /AAA/AAA 1,000 Mrd. 14.10.2033 ms -5 Bp 05.10.2022 4,400 Mrd. ms - 4 area 3,000% Flemish Community - /-/AA 0,750 Mrd. 12.10.2032 BGBs +40 bp 05.10.2022 1,200 Mrd. BGBs +40 area 3,250% Flemish Community - /-/AA 1,250 Mrd. 12.01.2043 BGBs +36 bp 05.10.2022 1,750 Mrd. BGBs +37 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM €-SSA-Issues week of 3 October 2022 Italian government bonds - rating agencies fuel rise in yields Yield on 10-year BTPs in % Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5 07.07.2022 07.08.2022 07.09.2022 Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 6 October 2022 3 of 7 Senior Unsecured This week, both the difficult primary market environment and the simultaneous high refinancing needs of institutions in the senior unsecured segment were once again confirmed: In the risk-off mode dominating at the beginning of the week, only the Danish Jyske Bank showed up with a benchmark transac- tion on Tuesday. On the following day, the mood on the market brightened noticeably; BBVA and Crédit Agricole immediately took advantage of this momentum and placed a total of EUR 3.5 billion in senior unsecured bench- mark paper. Overall, primary market conditions remain extremely difficult. Jyske, for example, had to offer a new issue pre- mium of around +60/+65 bp for its very defensive 3.5NC2.5-year issue. Despite the conservatively chosen maturity and the supposedly generous spread premium, the final order book was only EUR 635 million, and the spread could only be narrowed by around 10 bp compared to the first indication. Overall, it is noticeable that the place- ment volume has priority in the structuring of transactions, while issuers accept higher spreads. Outlook: The general situation is unlikely to change much in the coming days: The overall environment re- mains extremely volatile and challenging. In view of the geopolitical crises, but also individual corporate news (Credit Suisse), investors are nervous and are fo- cusing on quality and adequate spreads. Short maturi- ties, for example, probably do not yet sufficiently re- flect the recent interest rate decisions and have been among the underperformers in recent days. However, banks still have a high need for issuance (capital re- quirements, high maturities), thus transactions can still be expected when the opportunity is favorable. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 2,812% DBS Bank Ltd. Aaa /-/AAA 0,750 Mrd. 13.10.2025 ms +17 Bp 04.10.2022 0,000 Mrd. ms + 19 area 3,125% UniCredit Bank Czech Republic and Slovakia, a.s. Aa2 /-/- 0,500 Mrd. 11.10.2027 ms +55 Bp 04.10.2022 0,500 Mrd. ms + 55 area 2,750% Bank of Montreal Aaa /-/AAA 1,000 Mrd. 13.10.2026 ms +17 Bp 04.10.2022 1,150 Mrd. ms + 17 area 2,750% Caisse de Refinancement de l’Habitat Aaa /-/AAA 1,850 Mrd. 12.04.2028 ms +10 Bp 05.10.2022 2,100 Mrd. ms + 12 area 2,875% Commerzbank AG Aaa /-/- 0,750 Mrd. 13.10.2028 ms +6 Bp 06.10.2022 1,100 Mrd. ms + 8 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM €-Covered Bond-Issues week of 3 October 2022 "The fears that the uncertain large-scale weather situation would continue at the beginning of the new month have come true. The markets are being shaken up unabated in outright movements. But not only that, there is also a lot of movement on the curves. From steep to flat to inverse and then back around again! A catalyst for the recent movements was definitely the drama around Great Britain, which has certainly already been de- scribed, discussed and commented on many times in its script and effects. The significance and conclusions that can be drawn from the market reactions are likely to spoil the mood of the vast majority of players. " Comment from the Helaba trading floor Credit curve flattened significantly recently ASW spread in basis points Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 02/22 03/22 04/22 05/22 06/22 07/22 08/22 09/22 10/22 spread difference between IBOXX EUR Financials AA 5-7 Y and IBOXX EUR Financials AA Y Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 6 October 2022 4 of 7 Short news 10/5 Shock for Italy: Moody's rating agency threatens Rome with a bond downgrade to junk bond level. (Börsenzeitung) 10/5 Top EU banks exposed to 239 bn USD in fossil fuel assets: A new report by Finance Watch unveiled the ex- posure of EU banks to fossil fuel assets and called for higher capital requirements to ward off the financial stability risk of stranded fossil fuel assets. (EURACTIV) 10/5 BIS: Buffer usability and cyclicality in the Basel framework: The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision issued a second report on the evaluation of the impact and effectiveness of implemented Basel reforms. As re- ported by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the report finds some indications of a positive relationship between banks' capital headroom and lending while limited evidence emerges that banks' reluctance to use li- quidity buffers has affected their lending and market activity. (BIS) 10/4 European banks too optimistic about macro risks according to ECB: European banks are not taking loom- ing economic risks seriously as they enjoy the revenue-boosting benefits of higher interest rates, the European Central Bank Supervisory Board Chairman Andrea Enria said. As reported by Bloomberg, Enria repeated warnings on the risks posed by the business of lending to indebted companies as the ECB will impose higher capital re- quirements on lenders that don’t grapple with those risks. 9/30 EBA publishes Basel III impact report: The European Banking Authority (EBA) today its first mandatory Ba- sel III Monitoring Report which assesses the impact that Basel III full implementation will have on EU banks in 2028. According to this assessment, which uses a significantly larger sample than in previous years and applies the same methodology as the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS), the full Basel III implementation would result in an average increase of 15.0% of the current Tier 1 minimum required capital of EU banks. (see our report on the EU Banking Package 2021 dated 5. November 2021) 9/30 BIS: Basel III capital ratios for largest global banks on high levels: Initial Basel III capital ratios increased to the highest level since the beginning of the exercise in 2012, and banks' profits remained at or near record high Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 4,375% BBVA A3 /A/A- 1,250bn 14.10.2029 ms +155 bps  05.10.2022 1,900bn ms + 175-180 bp na Euroclear Bank - /AA/AA 0,500bn 13.10.2027 ms +65 bps 06.10.2022 3,400bn ms + 105 area na Intesa Baa1/BBB/BBB 0,75 Mrd. 13.01.2030 ms+235 06.10.2022 1,3000 Mrd. Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM €-Senior Preferred-Issues week of 3 October 2022 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 4,625% Jyske Bank A/S - /BBB+/- 0,500 Mrd. 11.04.2026 ms +210 Bp 04.10.2022 0,635 Mrd. ms + 220 area 4,000% Credit Agricole SA A3 /A-/A+ 1,000 Mrd. 12.10.2026 ms +135 Bp 05.10.2022 1,500 Mrd. ms + 150 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM €-Senior Non-Preferred-Issues week of 3 October 2022 "The markets do not come to rest and remain highly volatile in many segments following the interest rate de- cisions of the central banks. The equity markets have started a strong bear market rally and the iTraxx indices narrowed massively over the week, while at the same time yields fell massively and Bund swap spreads re- main near record levels. The cash markets experienced another week of widening." Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 6 October 2022 5 of 7 levels across all regions in H2 2021 according to the latest Basel III monitoring exercise. (BIS, Basel III Monitor- ing Report) 9/30 Europe faces ‘severe risks’ to financial system, regulators warn: The European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) have issued an unprecedented warning about “severe risks to financial stability” after concluding Russia’s inva- sion of Ukraine could create a toxic combination of an economic downturn, falling asset prices and financial mar- ket stress. The authority called on regulators to prepare for a potential crisis by requiring financial institutions to build up bigger buffers of capital and provisions that can absorb losses, the Financial Times reports. \* Closing prices from the previous day Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory, \* ASW-Spreads Market Data (current\*, vs. 1 week, vs. 4 weeks) E-STOXX 600 Banks 122 2,04% -1,39% iBoxx € Cov. Germany 1,7 1,4 -0,3 iTraxx Senior Financial 142,5 -5,4 16,6 10Yr-Yield 2,02 -0,12 0,45 iBoxx € Cov. Bonds 10,5 1,6 0,0 iBoxx € Supranational 1,5 2,25 1,50 Swap 10J 2,96 -0,13 0,53 iBoxx € Banks PS 91,2 11,7 13,8 iBoxx € Agencies -20,7 3,58 0,52 iBoxx € Germany -78,4 3,97 3,02 iBoxx Banks NPS 135,8 9,6 12,6 iBoxx € Sub-Sov. Germany -3,0 1,11 -0,71 iBoxx € EU 5,2 3,62 5,00 iBoxx Banks Subordinated 247,8 11,5 31,6 iBoxx € Sub-Sovereign 12,8 2,45 1,50 Leisure tip for the weekend: The Leica Museum in Wetzlar Do you have ideas for leisure tips? We would be happy to receive your suggestions at research@helaba.de. Source: https://leica-welt.com/leica-welt-erleben Leica - the epitome of photography "Made in Germany" and uncompromising engineering. At Leitzpark in Wetzlar, Leica enthusiasts, photography fans and guests from all over the world have the opportunity to immerse themselves in the unique, fascinating world of Leica. You will gain unique insights into the Leica manufactory and company history and experience milestones of pho- tography at first hand. The Leitzpark impresses with high-calibre, changing exhibitions that let visitors feel the spirit of photography. The exhibitions im- press with renowned photographers from all over the world. Exciting impres- sions and unusual encounters also await at events, guided tours and photo workshops. Afterwards, Café Leitz will provide culinary highlights for your physical well-being. The Leitzpark is worth a day trip as well as a complete weekend trip with an overnight stay in the Leitzhotel. Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 6 October 2022 6 of 7 Chartbook SSA, Covered Bonds, Senior Unsecured Senior Primary volumes Senior Unsecured: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2021 SP 2020 SP 2022 SP 2020 SNP 2021 SNP 2022 SNP 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Okt.21 Dez.21 Feb.22 Apr.22 Jun.22 Aug.22 Okt.22 Banks Subordinated Banks Senior Bail-in Banks Senior Preferred Covered Primary volumes Covered Bonds: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2022 2020 2021 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Okt.21 Dez.21 Feb.22 Apr.22 Jun.22 Aug.22 Okt.22 EUR Covered Covered Germany SSA: Primary volumes SSA: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2020 2021 2022 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 Okt. 21 Dez. 21 Feb. 22 Apr. 22 Jun. 22 Aug. 22 Okt. 22 Sub-Sovereigns Agencies Supranationals Sub-Sovereigns Germany Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 6 October 2022 7 of 7 News from Research & Advisory  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – BANK AND COVERED BOND PROFILES GERMANY  FOCUS ON: SSAS – GERMAN AGENCIES  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – EUROPEAN BANKS: NET INTEREST INCOME RISES SHARPLY IN Q2 2022  FOCUS ON: COVERED BONDS – EUROPEAN COVERED BONDS: CENTRAL WEBSITE PROVIDES CLARITIY  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – LIVE DEALS – A USEFUL INDICATOR FOR PLANNING ISSUANCE  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – PRIMARY MARKET UPDATE EUR BENCHMARK BANK BONDS: Q2 2022  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – EUROPEAN BANKS: CLIMATE RISK STRESS TEST HIGHLIGHTS NEED FOR FURHTER ACTION  EUR CORPORATE BONDS: PRIMARY MARKET Q2 2022  EUROPEAN BANKS: ACTIVITIES BECOMING EVER GREENER  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE: SPAIN VERSUS FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE – STATE OF PLAY: AUSTRIA VERSUS FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE – STATE OF PLAY IN FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  COVERED-BOND-LAWS: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU REGULATION (VIDEO) Team of authors Publisher and editorial office Helaba Research & Advisory Editor: Stefan Rausch Corporate Research & Advisory Responsible: Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chefvolkswirtin/ Head of Research & Advisory Neue Mainzer Str. 52-58 60311 Frankfurt am Main T +49 69 / 91 32 - 20 Internet: www.helaba.com Disclaimer This publication has been prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains only non-binding analyses and forecasts of current and future market conditions. The information is based on sources which we consider to be reliable, but for whose accuracy, completeness or up-to-dateness we cannot assume any liability. All state- ments made in this publication are for information purposes only. They must not be understood as an offer or recommendation for investment de- cisions. Here you can subscribe to our newsletter: https://news.helaba.de/research/ Dr. Susanne Knips Senior Credit Analyst T 069/91 32-32 11 Sabrina Miehs, CESGA Head of FI & SSA Research Senior Advisor Sustainable Finance T 069/91 32-48 90 Christian Schmidt Covered Bond & SSA Analyst T 069/91 32-23 88

SSA: Signs of fatigue increasingly visible. Covered Bonds: New issue premiums rise. Senior Unsecured: Investors very selective