---
title: "SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update"
url: https://www.helaba.com/en/ssa-and-financials-weekly-market-update-28
type: dd_research
language: en
updated: 2026-09-28
keywords: Renten, Weekly Market Update_englisch
---

# SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update

Focus on: SSA & Financials 13 October 2022 © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 13 October 2022 1 of 7 Research & Advisory Weekly Market Update Primary market environment: The escalation of the Ukraine war and possible further steps by the central banks to curb inflation have recently led to rising yields, wider bund swap spreads and nervous stock markets. The market environment remains very volatile. The search for relatively safe assets in a generally very nervous mood among market participants is also reflected in our risk trend indicator. At least attractive entry opportunities are also being used for unsecured bonds on the secondary market, but overall the environment remains very volatile. Primary market barometer In a persistently difficult market envi- ronment, the SSA segment is benefit- ing noticeably from its position as a safe haven. Furthermore, investor demand in this segment is supported by expensive interest rate hedges for Bunds. However, good standing of the issuers and shorter maturities also count here. The almost desperate search for safe havens was particularly evident in covered bonds last week: In the EUR benchmark format, 9 transactions with a total volume of EUR 6.3 billion were placed, and the order books even totaled EUR 14.7 billion. A trend reversal is not expected for the time being. The primary market environment for senior unsecured bank bonds remains very difficult. Nevertheless, the market is generally receptive, al- beit at higher spreads. Here, too, high quality and short maturities are comparatively sought-after by inves- tors. Covered Bonds Senior Unsecured SSA Risk trend indicator: Safe havens sought after Spread trend indicator\*, ASWspread change versus … \*ASW levels standardized and 2T-smoothed, since 14.2.22 changed calculation of ASW levels by Markit. Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory IB OXX EUR O 1 day 1 week 4 week 13 weeks 52 weeks 104 weeks Germany 0,02 -0,17 -0,32 -0,43 -2,38 -3,05 European Union -0,05 -0,18 0,29 0,10 1,00 -0,30 Germany Covered -0,12 -0,24 -0,13 -0,38 0,27 -0,45 EU Covered -0,03 -0,06 -0,02 -0,06 0,23 0,02 Banks senior preferred 0,10 -0,21 0,48 0,27 2,43 1,54 Banks senior bail-in (SNP) 0,13 -0,03 0,62 0,52 2,59 1,60 Banks subordinated 0,07 -0,04 0,69 0,27 2,65 1,65 Supranational -0,08 -0,20 0,02 -0,23 0,37 -0,57 Agencies 0,03 -0,17 -0,19 -0,57 -1,07 -1,61 Sub-Sovereigns Germany -0,07 -0,23 -0,16 -0,56 -1,24 -2,03 Sub-Sovereigns -0,03 -0,30 -0,08 -0,56 -0,48 -1,56 strong middle weak unchanged weak middle strong spread widening spread tightening Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 13 October 2022 2 of 7 SSA Demand for low-risk issuers remains high, as the EU impressively demonstrated this week with a dual tranche. In our view, the oversubscription rate of 4.5x, which the order book showed for the 20-year tranche in the amount of EUR 6 bn, is particularly remarkable. For this, however, it had to offer a generous spread premium of 4 bp; the bond has not been able to make up much ground on the secondary side either. In contrast, the two new issues of the French agencies this week seemed to focus more on favourable pricing from the issuer's point of view, thus their oversubscription rates were much lower. Outlook: Our expectation that a trend towards higher new issue premiums will also emerge in the SSA segment was confirmed this week. The demand side is determined, among other things, by the comparatively low liquidity of asset managers. Outstanding bond portfolios can currently only be sold at a loss. Although we expect further issues in the coming weeks, there ist lower funding need of the federal states and development banks. Covered Bonds The hunt for safe havens is particularly evident in the covered bond segment: 9 transactions with a total volume of EUR 6.3 billion have been placed in benchmark format in the course of the week so far. The total volume subscribed was 2.3 times. In Germany, two issuers from the Landesbank sector, LBBW and Bayern LB, successfully placed their transactions. LBBW's 2-year paper was outstanding with more than 5 times oversubscription. The two French issuers CaFFiL and La Banque Postale "dared" to enter the market with long maturities by 2029 and 2030 respectively. These transactions were also successfully closed, but with lower spread nar- rowing during the bookbuilding than the transactions with shorter maturities (-2 bps each). Outlook: The still high Bund swap spread supports demand for covered bonds (as well as SSA paper) as an alternative to Bunds with relatively expensive in- terest rate hedge positions. In the generally very diffi- cult market environment, this segment seems com- paratively attractive. The demand for safe assets will continue in view of the numerous risk factors. In addi- tion, rising refinancing costs will encourage issuers Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 1.625% EU Aaa /AA/AAA 5.000 M rd.  04.12.2029 ms -21 Bp 11.10.2022 16.500 M rd. ms - 20 area 3.375% EU Aaa /AA/AAA 6.000 M rd. 04.11.2042 ms +32 Bp 11.10.2022 27.000 M rd. ms + 34 area 3.500% Agence Francaise de Developpement - /AA/AA 1.200 M rd. 25.02.2033 FRTRs +55 bp  12.10.2022 1.300 M rd. FRTRs +55 area 3.000% Caisse des Depots et Consignations Aa2 /AA/AA 0.500 M rd. 25.11.2027 FRTRs +57 bp  12.10.2022 0.650 M rd. FRTRs +58 area 3.125% Rheinland-Pfalz - /-/AAA 0.250 M rd. 20.10.2032 . 13.10.2022 not disclosed . Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € SSA issues week of 10 October 2022 Bund swap spread as major driver EUR SWAP vs Govt Bond 10Y, in Bp. Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 10/06 10/09 10/12 10/15 10/18 10/21 Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 13 October 2022 3 of 7 with funding requirements to bring forward transactions. For the year as a whole, we have therefore raised our pri- mary market forecast to around EUR 190 billion (see Primary Market Update EUR Benchmark Bank Bonds of 7 October 2022). Senior Unsecured The primary market for senior unsecured bank bonds has slowed down noticeably in recent days. De- spite the crisis-ridden general climate, it seems to be continuously receptive, as the Finnish OP Cor- porate Bank impressively demonstrated on Tuesday with a new preferred issue. The placement volume of EUR 500 million with a 4.5-year maturity was 1.5 times oversubscribed at an ASW spread of 105 bps. Outlook: The environment in the senior unsecured segment remains extremely challenging. Liquidity among both investors and dealer desks is tending to decline, according to our observations. Furthermore, the Q3 2022 bank reporting season is starting and thus the black-out period. Particular attention will probably be paid to problem loan ratios when the results are presented. These have been stable so far, but an increase is foreseeable in view of the gloomy business environment. The net interest income of the banks and its sensitivity to rising interest rates on the other hand side is also likely to be a focus of attention. Nevertheless, we were able to raise our primary market forecast for 2022 as a whole from EUR 150 billion to EUR 160 to 170 billion after the lively activity in the course of the year to date. High maturities, strict regulatory requirements for bail-in capital, credit growth and the expectation of rising interest rates are the main drivers here. However, investors are becoming increasingly selective and are focusing on high quality and shorter to me- dium maturities (see Primary Market Update EUR Benchmark Bank Bonds of 7 October 2022). Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3.250% CaFFiL Aaa /AA+/- 1.000 M rd. 19.02.2029 ms +11 Bp 10.10.2022 1.300 M rd. ms + 13 area 2.750% LBBW Aaa /-/- 1.000 M rd. 18.10.2024 ms -12 Bp 11.10.2022 5.100 M rd. ms - 6 area 3.250% Belfius Bank SA/NV - /AAA/AAA 0.500 M rd. 18.10.2027 ms +7 Bp 11.10.2022 1.250 M rd. ms + 10 area 3.250% La Banque Postale Home Loan SFH - /AAA/- 1.000 M rd. 23.01.2030 ms +13 Bp 11.10.2022 1.500 M rd. ms + 15 area 3.125% Bayerische Landesbank Aaa /-/- 0.500 M rd. 19.10.2027 ms -3 Bp 12.10.2022 2.400 M rd. ms + 2 area 3.250% Hypo Vorarlberg Bank AG Aaa /-/- 0.500 M rd. 19.02.2027 ms +16 Bp 12.10.2022 0.750 M rd. ms + 18 area 3.250% Argenta Spaarbank NV - /AAA/- 0.500 M rd. 20.10.2026 ms +14 Bp 12.10.2022 0.600 M rd. ms + 16 area 3.246% Commonwealth Bank of Australia Aaa /-/AAA 1.000 M rd. 24.10.2025 ms +18 Bp 12.10.2022 1.350 M rd. ms + 20 area 3.000% Landesbank Berlin Aaa /-/- 0.250 M rd. 20.04.2027 ms -3 Bp 13.10.2022 0.420 M rd. ms + 1 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Covered Bond issues week of 10 October 2022 „At the short end, the music continues to play in the positive spread sense. A general shortage of collateral for Bunds and thus evasive movements to high-quality "substitute assets" continue to keep the band playing. The effort to sell cash holdings in bonds that have been traded for some time is also unbroken. It is noticeable that securities at the very long end have also been sold again recently. In general, with the exception of ultra- short maturities, caution is still called for in the development of spreads against the background of further upward risks for absolute yields.“ Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 13 October 2022 4 of 7 Short news 10/13 SRB and ECB agreement on margin for redemptions of liabilities: The Single Resolution Board (SRB) and the European Central Bank (ECB) have reached an “in principle” agreement on the margin for redeeming eligible liabilities. The new “in principle” agreement is applicable to authorisations granted as of 1 January 2023, including General Prior Permission (GPP) renewals. 10/10 EBA on real estate market risks: Banks are exposed to downside risks as residential real estate markets get overheated, according to a thematic note on EU banks’ residential real estate exposures published by the European Banking Authority (EBA). EU banks reported more than EUR 4.1 trillion of loans and advances collateral- ised by residential immovable property according to the report. This corresponds to 1/3 of all loans towards households and non-financial corporates. 10/7 Moody's on risks from energy crisis at banks: Banks must prepare for an increase in problem cases in their loan books due to rising energy prices, according to rating agency Moody's. (Handelsblatt) 10/7 EBA updates on reglatory bail-in capital: The European Banking Authority (EBA) published an updated total loss-absorbing capacity and minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities (TLAC/MREL) monitoring Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 4.125% OP Corporate Bank plc Aa3 /Aa-/- 0.500bn 18.04.2027 ms +105 bps 11.10.2022 0.750bn ms + 115 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior preferred issues week of 10 October 2022 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication keine Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Non-preferred issues week of 10 October 2022 Issuer Date Issuer Date JP M ORGAN CHASE & CO 10/14 SVENSKA HANDELSBANKEN-A SHS 10/19 WELLS FARGO & CO 10/14 BAWAG GROUP AG 10/19 CITIGROUP INC 10/14 DNB BANK ASA 10/20 BANK OF AM ERICA CORP 10/17 NORDEA BANK ABP 10/20 GOLDM AN SACHS GROUP INC 10/18 BANKINTER SA 10/20 Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Reporting dates of selected banks "Flows are below average, but with an unchanged pattern. Real money is a seller and tries to reduce risk and duration, e.g. in core European financials and US banks. ETF funds are sentiment-driven, but mostly as sellers as they experience outflows. Private banking and retail desks are using the high yields as buying opportuni- ties in small trading volumes. Otherwise, we see 2-way activity from fast money in new issues. The attractive- ness of the current yield levels is definitely there and should keep attracting some cherry pickers in short and medium maturities." Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 13 October 2022 5 of 7 Report. The EBA has observed that its recommendations have been well implemented. However, it has identified the need for a few new notable provisions to be recommended and for some others to be avoided. 10/7 BdB on sustainability in the corporate customer business: The new episode of the German Banking Associ- ation (BdB)'s podcast "Bank Secret" is about sustainability in the corporate customer business with a special focus on the automotive sector in Germany. It is key to plan the sustainable transformation of the individual com- panies to make investments and finance them. 10/6 EBA risk dashboard confirms stable CET1 ratios and rising profitability: The European Banking Authority (EBA) published its quarterly risk dashboard. According to the report, the banks’ profitability improved in Q2, which was largely due to higher interest rates translating into higher net interest income. Furthermore, bank sol- vency also remained solid, with the average CET1 ratio staying at 15%. \* Closing prices from the previous day Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory, \* ASW-Spreads Market Data (current\*, vs. 1 week, vs. 4 weeks) E-STOXX 600 Banks 117 -4.11% -11.13% iBoxx € Cov. Germany 1.3 -0.4 -0.9 iTraxx Senior Financial 148.3 5.8 32.0 10Yr-Yield 2.34 0.32 0.65 iBoxx € Cov. Bonds 10.3 -0.2 -0.5 iBoxx € Supranational 0.8 -0.66 0.61 Swap 10J 3.31 0.35 0.76 iBoxx € Banks PS 88.5 -2.7 13.2 iBoxx € Agencies -21.1 -0.40 -1.43 iBoxx € Germany -78.6 -0.20 -2.24 iBoxx Banks NPS 137.9 2.0 20.2 iBoxx € Sub-Sov. Germany -4.9 -1.94 -2.75 iBoxx € EU 4.7 -0.47 3.71 iBoxx Banks Subordinated 248.6 0.9 40.4 iBoxx € Sub-Sovereign 11.1 -1.70 -0.60 Leisure tip for the weekend: Sanssouci in Potsdam Do you have ideas for leisure tips? We would be happy to receive your suggestions at research@helaba.de. Source: Sanssouci Palace - Retreat on the Vineyard | SPSG Sanssouci- in English "without worry" can be understood as the wish and leit- motif of King Frederick the Great, because this is where he preferred to retreat with his dogs. The location of the palace on the famous vineyard terraces and the original room furnishings from the 18th century allow visitors today to im- merse themselves in the world of the "philosopher of Sanssouci" and bring a touch of Versailles to Brandenburg. The rooms are characterized by elegance and stylish splendor. Sanssouci also impresses with its park with the unique terraces and the magnificent fountain, world-famous and included in the UNESCO World Heritage List. More information: : Sanssouci Palace - Retreat on the Vineyard | SPSG Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 13 October 2022 6 of 7 Chartbook SSA, Covered Bonds, Senior Unsecured Senior Primary volumes Senior Unsecured: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2021 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Preferred 2021 Senior Non-preferred 2022 Senior Non-preferred 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Okt.21 Dez.21 Feb.22 Apr.22 Jun.22 Aug.22 Okt.22 Banks Subordinated Banks Senior Bail-in Banks Senior Preferred Covered Primary volumes Covered Bonds: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2022 2020 2021 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Okt.21 Dez.21 Feb.22 Apr.22 Jun.22 Aug.22 Okt.22 EUR Covered Covered Germany SSA: Primary volumes SSA: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2020 2021 2022 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 Okt. 21 Dez. 21 Feb. 22 Apr. 22 Jun. 22 Aug. 22 Okt. 22 Sub-Sovereigns Agencies Supranationals Sub-Sovereigns Germany Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 13 October 2022 7 of 7 News from Research & Advisory  FOCUS ON: CREDITS - PRIMARY MARKET UPDATE EUR BENCHMARK BANK BONDS: Q3 2022  FOCUS ON: CREDITS - EUR CORPORATE BONDS: PRIMARY MARKET Q3 2022  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – BANK AND COVERED BOND PROFILES GERMANY  FOCUS ON: SSAS – GERMAN AGENCIES  FOCUS ON: COVERED BONDS – EUROPEAN COVERED BONDS: CENTRAL WEBSITE PROVIDES CLARITIY  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – LIVE DEALS – A USEFUL INDICATOR FOR PLANNING ISSUANCE  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – EUROPEAN BANKS: CLIMATE RISK STRESS TEST HIGHLIGHTS NEED FOR FURHTER ACTION  EUROPEAN BANKS: ACTIVITIES BECOMING EVER GREENER  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE: SPAIN VERSUS FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE – STATE OF PLAY: AUSTRIA VERSUS FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE – STATE OF PLAY IN FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  COVERED-BOND-LAWS: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU REGULATION (VIDEO) Team of authors Publisher and editorial office Helaba Research & Advisory Editor: Stefan Rausch Corporate Research & Advisory Responsible: Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chefvolkswirtin/ Head of Research & Advisory Neue Mainzer Str. 52-58 60311 Frankfurt am Main T +49 69 / 91 32 - 20 Internet: www.helaba.com Disclaimer This publication has been prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains only non-binding analyses and forecasts of current and future market conditions. The information is based on sources which we consider to be reliable, but for whose accuracy, completeness or up-to-dateness we cannot assume any liability. All state- ments made in this publication are for information purposes only. They must not be understood as an offer or recommendation for investment de- cisions. Here you can subscribe to our newsletter: https://news.helaba.de/research/ Dr. Susanne Knips Senior Credit Analyst T 069/91 32-32 11 Sabrina Miehs, CESGA Head of FI & SSA Research Senior Advisor Sustainable Finance T 069/91 32-48 90 Christian Schmidt Covered Bond & SSA Analyst T 069/91 32-23 88

SSA: Even in the safe haven, quality and maturities are crucial. Covered Bonds: Demand driven by high Bund swap spread. Senior Unsecured: Upcoming reporting season should provide more insight into risks in the credit books.