---
title: "SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update"
url: https://www.helaba.com/en/ssa-and-financials-weekly-market-update-25
type: dd_research
language: en
updated: 2026-09-28
keywords: Renten, Weekly Market Update_englisch
---

# SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update

Focus on: SSA & Financials 3 November 2022 © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 3 November 2022 1 of 7 Research & Advisory Weekly Market Update Primary market environment: After the ECB, the BoE and the Fed also raised interest rates this week, as expected. The focus remains on the USA. Congressional elections will be held there next Tuesday. Polls point to gains on the Republican side. Overall, primary market conditions and the right transaction timing remain challenging. The recently visible signs of easing are mostly a thing of the past again. Nevertheless, the two transactions in the senior unsecured segment were placed relatively successfully.. Primary market barometer The market environment in the SSA segment is difficult. Shifting factors such as widening swap spreads are contributing to this, as is a possible balance sheet reduction by the ECB. Issues require higher new issue pre- miums and deals are just barely mak- ing it across the finish line. Primary market activity has been lim- ited recently. The interest rate deci- sions of various central banks, holi- day-related interruptions and the search for a suitable issuing window contributed to this. The approaching end of the year makes a significant revival seem unlikely. The senior unsecured segment was comparatively active this week de- spite the ongoing reporting season, holidays and central bank decisions, and probably benefited from the re- cently friendlier market environment. The market thus remains open for transactions, albeit at high spreads. Covered Bonds Senior Unsecured SSA Risk trend indicator signals renewed increase in risk aversion Spread trend indicator\*, ASWspread change versus … \*ASW levels standardized and 2T-smoothed, since 14.2.22 changed calculation of ASW levels by Markit. Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory IB OXX EUR O 1 day 1 week 4 week 13 weeks 52 weeks 104 weeks Germany 0,00 -0,18 0,43 0,63 -1,73 -1,99 European Union 0,03 0,03 0,51 1,06 1,39 1,20 Germany Covered 0,04 0,19 -0,10 -0,35 0,46 -0,14 EU Covered 0,01 0,06 0,02 -0,03 0,33 0,16 Banks senior preferred 0,00 -0,47 0,04 1,14 2,72 1,84 Banks senior bail-in (SNP) -0,03 -0,44 0,17 1,19 2,77 1,87 Banks subordinated 0,01 -0,38 -0,32 0,88 2,51 1,42 Supranational 0,04 0,12 0,35 0,41 0,86 0,33 Agencies 0,05 0,00 0,41 0,30 -0,53 -0,92 Sub-Sovereigns Germany 0,02 0,06 0,10 -0,27 -1,21 -1,57 Sub-Sovereigns 0,03 -0,01 0,25 0,18 -0,17 -0,75 strong middle weak unchanged weak middle strong spread widening spread tightening Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 3 November 2022 2 of 7 SSA The sentiment in the SSA segment has recently become more clouded. However, this had already be- come apparent, especially since even placements such as those of the EU could only point to rela- tively moderate book-to-cover ratios for this name. The slight improvement in sentiment of the past week has al- ready faded. Even a green label no longer automatically becomes a bestseller. The EIB's tap of the 11/29 maturity did not succeed in narrowing the marketing spread on MS-17 again. The books were filled with just under one bil- lion euros, including 200 million JLM, just enough for the deal to go through. EURO-FIMA did somewhat better with its green bond maturing 11/31. The spread was narrowed by 3 bps compared to the marketing indi cation. Overall, the market is depressed and repricing is expected to occur gradually. In this environment, we believe that caution is advisable across the entire curve. Outlook: The environment is challenging, so it remains to be seen which issuers will show up on the primary mar- ket in the coming days. Covered Bonds Pre-Christmas calm? Not quite! However, the very limited primary market volume this week due to various holidays and the Fed meeting provided a foretaste of what to expect as the year draws to a close. In any case, the remaining issuance window is likely to be limited to the next five weeks or so. At best, pull-forward effects in the course of an as- set allocation that has already begun could provide another temporary boost. Another argument to be- come active this year is the expectation that spreads in the core segment will be higher next year than is currently the case. Irrespective of the motivation, the other conditions for an issue must of course also be right. Today Deutsche Bank placed a 5-year bench- mark Pfandbrief. The issue met with good demand, so that the book was 1.6 times oversubscribed. The mar- keting spread of MS+10 was narrowed by 2 bps to MS+8. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 1,375% KFW Aaa /AAA/AAA 1,000bn  07.06.2032 ms -16 bps  31.10.2022 1,200bn ms-16 area tbd Eurofima Aa2 /AA/- 0,500bn 09.11.2031 ms +19 bps 02.11.2022 ms + 22 area 2,625% Hessen - /AA+/- 0,500bn 10.09.2027 ms -19 bps 02.11.2022 0,840bn ms - 19 area 2,750% Nederlandse Watershapsbank Aaa /AAA/- 0,500bn 09.11.2027 ms -11 bps 02.11.2022 0,700bn ms - 11 area 0,050% EIB Aaa /AAA/AAA 1,000bn 15.11.2029 ms -17 bps 02.11.2022 1,350bn ms - 17 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € SSA issues week of 31 October 2022 „The SSA universe is currently experiencing a "radical change" and a difficult market environment seems to be accompanying the issuers for a long time. The end of the PSPP, the widening of swap spreads and specula- tion about an imminent reduction of the ECB's balance sheet explain the strong restraint of investors. In tendence, this leads to larger new issue premiums and investor enthusiasm remains limited Comment from the Helaba trading floor Spread gap from covered to senior grows ASW in Bp. Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Banks Senior Bail-in Banks Senior Preferred EUR Covered Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 3 November 2022 3 of 7 Our secondary market assessment that defensive action is to be preferred over the entire curve has not changed. Outlook: The results of the central bank meetings are on the table. In this respect, it is to be expected that the pri- mary market business will be somewhat more lively in the coming week. Various issuance projects are already in the pipeline. The motto: the shorter the maturity, the better, still applies. Senior Unsecured The primary market for senior unsecured bank bonds held up comparatively well this week despite the reporting season, holidays and central bank decisions. The order books were well filled for the two transactions in this segment. Spain's fourth-largest institution Banco Sabadell was able to place a preferred bond with a 6-year maturity very comfortably with a 4-fold oversubscribed order book, offering a quite attractive new issue premium of around 30 bp. The Swedish SEB met with lively investor interest with its new non-preferred bond on the basis of its good rating and with a somewhat shorter maturity of 4 years at a premium of 15 bp. Both bonds were green. The transactions were also supported by the banks’ ongoing reporting season: the majority of banks were able to surprise on the upside, mainly due to the surprisingly strong increase in net interest income, while problem loan ratios remained low for the time being and cost inflation remained under control. However, we see the strong loan demand by companies that are increasing their working capital and drawing liquidity lines in the current business environment as actually crisis-driven. Furthermore, demand for mortgage loans is already easing noticeably, driv- ing margin competition. Outlook: The next week will again be impacted by the publication of quarterly reports and the associated black- out period. In addition, the year is drawing to a close and many houses have largely implemented their issuance plans, in some cases even overfulfilled them. Concerns that the market environment will remain difficult into next year mean that opening market windows could still be used for prefunding. Furthermore, the issues in this seg- ment are strongly determined by regulatory requirements (MREL/TLAC). Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3,000% Deutsche Bank AG Aaa /-/- 1,000bn 28.03.2028 ms +8 bps 03.11.2022 1,600bn ms + 10 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Covered Bond issues week of 31 October 2022 „The market digested the ECB's 75bp rate hike last week well and heard rather dovish tones, further fuelling the current bear market rally. This week, the FED and BOE followed suit with 75 bps rate hikes each. Investor flows were below average due to regional holidays, but much more balanced than recent weeks. Real money continues to seek the money side. Blocks of short FRNs were given and also some medium maturities in larger volumes. Dealers are currently more willing to price enquiries due to the good sentiment. In Real Money, space is being created for the final spurt of new issues in the next 4 weeks. ETF Funds are the most active buyers, and likewise we are seeing a lot of activity from Private Banking at current yield levels." Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 3 November 2022 4 of 7 Short news 11/2 ECB sets deadlines for banks to deal with climate risks: The European Central Bank (ECB) published the results of its thematic review, which shows that banks are still far from adequately managing climate and environmental risks. The ECB is now setting staggered deadlines for banks to pro- gressively meet all the supervisory expectations it laid out in its Guide on climate-related and environmen- tal risks. The ECB has set institution-specific deadlines for achieving full alignment with its expectations by the end of 2024. 11/2 Moody's downgrades its outlook for the German banking system to negative: The agency expects banks' credit quality, profitability and access to funding to deteriorate. (a.o. Handelsblatt) 10/28 Banking activities in Russia: Russia-based AO Citibank is selling a portfolio of ruble-denominated per- sonal installment loans toPJSC bank Uralsib as its U.S. parent Citigroup Inc. seeks to reduce operation in and expo- sure to Russia. 10/27 EBA’s priorities for prudential supervisors for 2023: The European Banking Authority (EBA) published the European Supervisory Examination Programme (ESEP) for 2023, which identifies key topics for supervisory attention across the EU. The ESEP is part of an annual cycle and contributes to enhancing supervisory conver- gence by providing common directions and focus areas for supervisors, which helps them shape their prudential supervisory priorities and respective practices. 10/27 Villeroy calls for integrating climate stress tests into Basel: Climate change stress tests and transition plans for financial institutions globally should be integrated into the Basel capital requirements on risk govern- ance, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said. "In my view, the simplest and most international way forward is to integrate them into Basel capital requirements," he said. (Reuters) 10/27 Fitch Ratings Maintains Covered Bonds Refinancing Spread Level Assumptions in 3Q22: Fitch Ratings has kept its refinancing spread level (RSL) assumptions unchanged following its quarterly review, as the observed Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 5,125% Banco de Sabadell SA - /BB+/BBB- 0,750bn 10.11.2028 ms +225 bps  02.11.2022 2,900bn ms + 255 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior preferred issues week of 31 October 2022 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 4,000% SEB Aa3 /A+/AA 1,000bn 09.11.2026 ms +118 bps  02.11.2022 2,500bn ms + 140-145 Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Non-preferred issues week of 31 October 2022 Issuer Date Issuer Date NATWEST GROUP PLC 10/28 INTESA SANPAOLO 11/04 BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTA 10/28 ERSTE GROUP BANK AG 11/04 BNP PARIBAS 11/03 SOCIETE GENERALE SA 11/04 RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONA 11/03 BPCE SA 11/04 ING GROEP NV 11/03 Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Reporting dates of selected banks Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 3 November 2022 5 of 7 average sovereign and covered bonds spreads remain below its ‘B’ assumptions. The agency monitors its assump- tions and may modify applicable RSL, notably in case of a change of country rating or significant and lasting spread movements on sovereign debt or covered bonds. \* Closing prices from the previous day Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory, \* ASW-Spreads Market Data (current\*, vs. 1 week, vs. 4 weeks) E-STOXX 600 Banks 130 1,77% 6,21% iBoxx € Cov. Germany 3,0 1,7 1,3 iTraxx Senior Financial 120,7 -2,2 -21,8 10Yr-Yield 2,14 0,02 0,12 iBoxx € Cov. Bonds 13,0 2,0 2,5 iBoxx € Supranational 7,5 1,97 6,00 Swap 10J 3,06 0,08 0,10 iBoxx € Banks PS 93,6 -9,4 2,4 iBoxx € Agencies -12,4 1,21 8,28 iBoxx € Germany -69,9 -1,27 8,51 iBoxx Banks NPS 142,7 -10,9 6,9 iBoxx € Sub-Sov. Germany 0,8 1,36 3,80 iBoxx € EU 13,3 1,10 8,09 iBoxx Banks Subordinated 231,4 -17,2 -16,4 iBoxx € Sub-Sovereign 18,3 0,82 5,49 Leisure tip for the weekend: Goethe's residence and Goethe-National-Museum in Weimar Do you have ideas for leisure tips? We would be happy to receive your suggestions at research@helaba.de. Source: https://www.klassik-stiftung.de/en/goethe-national-museum/the-goethe-residence/ Goethe's residence in Weimar- "One’s home is half of one’s life," Goethe wrote in a letter in 1795. To get to know Goethe's life better, it is therefore worth visiting Goethe's residence, which he lived in since 1782 for almost 50 years. In addition to manuscripts and books, the house also housed Goethe's ever-growing art and natural science collections. Numerous original pieces as well as furniture from his estate can still be viewed today. The highlight is the uniquely furnished office with the poet's private library. Afterwards, a visit to the Goethe National Museum right next door is worthwhile. The current exhi- bition "Floods of Life - Storm of Deeds” illuminates Goethe's eventful life in the epoch of modernity and reveals Goethe's complexity as a naturalist, drafts- man and collector More information: The Goethe Residence - Klassik Stiftung Weimar (klas- sik-stiftung.de) Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 3 November 2022 6 of 7 Chartbook SSA, Covered Bonds, Senior Unsecured Senior Primary volumes Senior Unsecured: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2021 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Preferred 2021 Senior Non-preferred 2022 Senior Non-preferred 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Nov.21 Jan.22 Mrz.22 Mai.22 Jul.22 Sep.22 Nov.22 Banks Subordinated Banks Senior Bail-in Banks Senior Preferred Covered Primary volumes Covered Bonds: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2022 2020 2021 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Nov.21 Jan.22 Mrz.22 Mai.22 Jul.22 Sep.22 Nov.22 EUR Covered Covered Germany SSA: Primary volumes SSA: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2020 2021 2022 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 Nov. 21 Jan. 22 Mrz. 22 Mai. 22 Jul. 22 Sep. 22 Nov. 22 Sub-Sovereigns Agencies Supranationals Sub-Sovereigns Germany Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 3 November 2022 7 of 7 News from Research & Advisory  FOCUS ON: CREDITS - PRIMARY MARKET UPDATE EUR BENCHMARK BANK BONDS: Q3 2022  FOCUS ON: CREDITS - EUR CORPORATE BONDS: PRIMARY MARKET Q3 2022  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – BANK AND COVERED BOND PROFILES GERMANY  FOCUS ON: SSAS – GERMAN AGENCIES  FOCUS ON: COVERED BONDS – EUROPEAN COVERED BONDS: CENTRAL WEBSITE PROVIDES CLARITIY  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – LIVE DEALS – A USEFUL INDICATOR FOR PLANNING ISSUANCE  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – EUROPEAN BANKS: CLIMATE RISK STRESS TEST HIGHLIGHTS NEED FOR FURHTER ACTION  EUROPEAN BANKS: ACTIVITIES BECOMING EVER GREENER  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE: SPAIN VERSUS FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE – STATE OF PLAY: AUSTRIA VERSUS FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE – STATE OF PLAY IN FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  COVERED-BOND-LAWS: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU REGULATION (VIDEO) Team of authors Publisher and editorial office Helaba Research & Advisory Editor: Stefan Rausch Corporate Research & Advisory Responsible: Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chefvolkswirtin/ Head of Research & Advisory Neue Mainzer Str. 52-58 60311 Frankfurt am Main T +49 69 / 91 32 - 20 Internet: www.helaba.com Disclaimer This publication has been prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains only non-binding analyses and forecasts of current and future market conditions. The information is based on sources which we consider to be reliable, but for whose accuracy, completeness or up-to-dateness we cannot assume any liability. All state- ments made in this publication are for information purposes only. They must not be understood as an offer or recommendation for investment de- cisions. Here you can subscribe to our newsletter: https://news.helaba.de/research/ Dr. Susanne Knips Senior Credit Analyst T 069/91 32-32 11 Sabrina Miehs, CESGA Head of FI & SSA Research Senior Advisor Sustainable Finance T 069/91 32-48 90 Christian Schmidt Covered Bond & SSA Analyst T 069/91 32-23 88

SSA: Sentiment environment clouds over. Covered Bonds: Pre-Christmas Calm Not Yet Reached. Senior Unsecured: Quarterly reporting season and blackout period dominate.