---
title: "SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update"
url: https://www.helaba.com/en/ssa-and-financials-weekly-market-update-23
type: dd_research
language: en
updated: 2026-09-28
keywords: Renten, Weekly Market Update_englisch
---

# SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update

Focus on: SSA & Financials 17 November 2022 © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 17 November 2022 1 of 7 Research & Advisory Weekly Market Update Primary market environment: Primary market conditions remain challenging despite the recent easing of tensions: Republicans achieve a majority in the House of Representatives in the US midterms, US retail sales rose by 1.3% month-on-month in October and euro area inflation rises above the 10% mark in October for the first time since the introduction of the euro. Sentiment has eased in recent days. Our risk trend indicator also shows moderate improvements, although the short-term easing should not be overestimated in view of the numerous fundamental risks... Primary market barometer Many issuers have largely completed their funding projects for this year. In addition, the widening of spreads on the secondary market is unsettling. We therefore do not expect any sig- nificant revival. A historic week: On Monday, the EUR 200 billion sound barrier in issuance volume was broken for the first time. Activity continued unabated with higher spreads and in some cases de- cent new issue premiums. The near end of the year plays a significant role in this. After the surprisingly strong revival on the primary market for senior unse- cured bonds in the previous week, the high level of activity continues this week. Issuers are queuing up and meeting good demand from investors based on attractive spread offers. Funding reserves continue to expand. Covered Bonds Senior Unsecured SSA Risk trend indicator: traffic lights somewhat more relaxed Relative\* ASW spread change \* ASW levels standardized and 2T-smoothed Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory IB OXX EUR O 1 day 1 week 4 week 13 weeks 52 weeks 104 weeks Germany -0.04 0.34 0.83 1.59 -0.28 -1.35 European Union 0.00 -0.03 -0.01 1.18 1.72 1.52 Germany Covered -0.02 0.02 0.07 0.30 0.72 0.02 EU Covered 0.00 0.04 0.11 0.22 0.47 0.28 Banks senior preferred 0.01 -0.20 -0.17 1.09 2.63 2.17 Banks senior bail-in (SNP) -0.01 -0.29 -0.39 0.76 2.52 2.11 Banks subordinated 0.02 -0.25 -0.59 0.60 2.31 1.77 Supranational 0.02 0.04 0.17 0.84 1.21 0.66 Agencies 0.01 0.20 0.54 1.07 0.25 -0.39 Sub-Sovereigns Germany 0.05 0.10 0.28 0.34 -0.88 -1.30 Sub-Sovereigns 0.03 0.08 0.23 0.82 0.26 -0.35 strong middle weak unchanged weak middle strong spread widening spread tightening Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 17 November 2022 2 of 7 SSA In the SSA segment, it seems as if issuers have already largely completed their funding projects for this year. In addition, we believe that issuers have been unsettled by developments on the second- ary market. For example, the spreads of German federal states with long maturities have widened noticeably re- cently. In principle, duration is avoided, as the past weeks have already shown. Nevertheless, a heavyweight, the EU, came to the market this week with a dual tranche. The 10.25-year "green tranche" had an order book of almost EUR 42 billion. It was finally priced at MS+1 and a new issue premium of 5 bp. The 30.3-year bond also enjoyed strong investor demand. The notional bid-to-cover ratio was even higher at 11.8x. With a final marketing spread of 74 bps, the new issue premium was also 5 bps above the relevant second- ary market curve. For understandable reasons, other issuers did not want to compete with this. Outlook: We do not expect the primary market to pick up significantly in the coming week. Possibly one or the other federal state will still show itself in the short maturity segment. Covered Bonds As already suspected in the previous week, the momentum on the primary market continued at last. The magic barrier of EUR 200 billion since the beginning of the year was already broken at the begin- ning of the week. And this despite the fact that the market environment still holds one or two challenges. Higher spread concessions and the granting of new issue premiums, some of which are significant, are keeping the loco- motive under steam. The approaching end of the year is also narrowing the window of opportunity for liquid mar- kets. The motto of the last few weeks has been: short maturities are the trump card. It is therefore not surprising that the issuer with the shortest covered bond maturity this week - ING Bank with a 3-year bond - generated the high- est order book. The few buyers on the secondary market are cherry-picking and, unsurprisingly, are clustered at the short end of the curve. Due to the structure of the curve, this area is the most suitable for venturing an investment. Central banks are largely conspicuous by their absence and do not provide any support worth mentioning. In our view, the uncertainties in a fragile overall market remain and are likely to keep spreads high. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 2,750% EU Aaa /AA+/AAA 6,000bn 04.02.2033 ms +1 bps  15.11.2022 ms + 3 area 3,000% EU Aaa /AA+/AAA 2,500bn 04.03.2053 ms +74 bps 15.11.2022 29,500bn ms + 76 area 2,750% Swedish Export Credit Corporation Aa1 /AA+/- 1,000bn 23.02.2028 ms +16 bps 16.11.2022 1,250bn ms + 17 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € SSA issues week of 14 November 2022 „Turnover (secondary market) is like walking down a one-way street and consists for the most part of bid re- quests. The spreads vs. swaps are widening, which is also due to the fact that the primary market, which is running at full steam, only functions if generous NIPs are granted. The interaction between these same NIP's with valuations in the secondary market is causing spreads to rise. The massive relative increase in the price of covereds vs. EGBs (bund/swap tightening >20 bps in recent weeks) is another key driver. Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 17 November 2022 3 of 7 Outlook: Although no transaction has been officially announced yet, we expect further issuance in the coming week. Pre-funding and possible TLTRO redemptions - estimates are for a redemption on 23 November of up to EUR 750 bn - could favour this. Shorter maturities remain the first choice. Senior Unsecured After the surprisingly strong revival last week, the busy activity in the primary market for senior un- secured bank bonds in EUR benchmark format with fixed coupon continued this week. Since Monday, EUR 6.7 billion has been placed in 9 transactions, with order books more than twice as high. The robust market environment was reflected, among other things, in the fact that longer maturities and issuers from the periphery were also able to score. ABN AMRO Bank, for example, placed a dual tranche with non-preferred rank in the volume of EUR 1.25 billion with a maturity of 7.3 years and EUR 1.0 billion over 12 years, with the order book for the latter showing an oversub- scription rate of an impressive 3x. In this environment, less familiar names such as Raiffeisen Bank Zrt. from Hun- gary and the Greek Piraeus Bank also came out of the woodwork. However, the houses had to offer high spreads to get desired investor interest, and spread tightening in the secondary market was not quite as strong as it was a few weeks ago. In our opinion, this reflects the high level of nervousness currently prevailing on the market. Sentiment was supported, among other things, by the now largely completed reporting season for banks: The major European banks demonstrated very solid credit ratios for Q3 2022 and have high risk buffers in the current crisis environment. The rapid increase in net interest income in the core business is particularly encouraging. This should more than compensate for the loss of income brought about by the ECB's TLTRO III program. The repayment announcement tomorrow (Nov. 18) is eagerly awaited. According to our expec- tation, it could even be lower than the consensus esti- mate because banks want to maintain their liquidity ratios for the time being. (see our publication "Euro- pean banks: Q3 results instil confidence" of Nov. 16, 2022). Outlook: Issuers are taking advantage of the comparatively favorable market window for prefinancing in order to be well prepared for potentially even more difficult times in the global crisis environment and to ensure compli- ance with their regulatory requirements (MREL/TLAC). The brisk primary market activity could therefore continue next week, as we expect, in a friendly market environment. However, the year is drawing to a close and many issu- ers have largely implemented their issuance plans, in some cases even exceeding them. We therefore expect a slowdown in activity in December at the latest. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 2,750% ING Bank N.V. Aaa /AAA/AAA 1,750bn 21.11.2025 ms +2 bps 14.11.2022 2,250bn ms + 6 area 2,875% Credit Agricole Home Loan SFH Aaa /AAA/AAA 1,000bn 23.06.2028 ms +15 bps 14.11.2022 1,300bn ms + 17 area 2,750% OP M ortgage Bank Aaa /AAA/- 1,250bn 22.06.2026 ms +6 bps 14.11.2022 1,400bn ms + 8 area 3,106% Westpac Banking Corporation Aaa /-/AAA 0,750bn 01.12.2027 ms +35 bps 15.11.2022 0,800bn ms + 35 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Covered Bond issues week of 14 November 2022 Unexpectedly steep rise in interest income bn EUR bn EUR \*selection of European banks (Banco Santander, BBVA, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, ING Group, Nordea, Unicredit, SEB, Swedbank) Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21 Q1/22 Q2/22 Q3/22 Net interet income (lhs) Loan loss provision expenses (rhs) Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 17 November 2022 4 of 7 Short news 11/15 Reuters: Euro banks face 'direct hit' to profits from house price slide: Europe's banks risk a significant hit to their profits if house prices across the region begin to slide, regulators and rating agencies warn. While banks' robust balance sheets mean declining house prices are unlikely to pose a systemic risk, the scale of lenders' exposure to the property sector means they could face a hit to earnings, Reuters re- ports. 11/15 European Supervisory authorities launch joint Call for Evidence on greenwashing: The three European Supervisory Authorities (EBA, EIOPA and ESMA – ESAs) today published a Call for Evidence on greenwashing to gather input from stakeholders on how to understand the key features, drivers and risks associated with green- washing and to collect examples of potential greenwashing practices. 11/11 Fitch Ratings: Spanish Covered Bonds Are Now Aligned with EU Standards: Spanish cédulas hipotecarias (CH) are more closely aligned with their European peers owing to new mandatory liquidity mechanisms offering payment continuity in stress scenarios, and selected mortgage pools securing outstanding covered bonds, Fitch Ratings says in a new report.Spain’s implementation of the EU Covered Bonds Directive on 8 July 2022 represents a “big-bang” for the cédulas market, in Fitch’s view. It strengthens the governance framework, adds liquidity pro- tection, and enables maturity extensions. 11/10 Russia activities RBI: Russia's VTB Bank PJSC is discussing a scheme to exchange its European assets for the Russian assets of Austria-based Raiffeisen Bank International AG, but no solution has been found regarding Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3.250% SEB Aa3 /A+/AA 1.000bn 24.11.2025 ms +55 bps 15.11.2022 1.500bn ms + 80 area 5.035% Banca M ediolanum S.p.A, - /BBB/BBB 0.300bn 22.01.2027 ms +225 bps 15.11.2022 0.740bn ms + 255 area 7.250% National Bank of Greece S.A. Ba3 /B+/- 0.500bn 22.11.2027 ms +474 bps 15.11.2022 1.050bn 7.75% area 8.750% Raiffeisen Bank, Zrt. Baa3 /-/- 0.300bn 22.11.2025 ms +590 bps 16.11.2022 0.650bn 9% area 8.250% Piraeus Bank S.A. B1 /B/- 0.350bn 28.01.2027 ms +580 Bp 17.11.2022 0.750bn 8.5% area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Preferred issues week of 14 November 2022 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 4,250% ABN AM RO Bank NV Baa1 /BBB/A 1,250bn 21.02.2030 ms +145 bps  14.11.2022 2,500bn ms + 170 area 4,500% ABN AM RO Bank NV Baa1 /BBB/A 1,000bn 21.11.2034 ms +165 bps 14.11.2022 3,000bn ms + 190 area 6,250% Hamburg Commercial Bank AG Baa2 /-/- 0,500bn 18.11.2024 ms +340 bps 14.11.2022 0,750bn ms + 350 area 6,000% Banco BPM S.p.A. Ba2 /-/BB+ 0,500bn 21.01.2028 ms +330 bps 14.11.2022 1,100bn ms + 360 area 4,375% KBC Group N.V. Baa1 /A-/A 1,000bn 23.11.2027 ms +170 bps 16.11.2022 3,000bn ms + 195 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Non-preferred issues week of 14 November 2022 „New issues are pursued in all maturities and liability ranks with high coupons, the likes of which have not been seen for many years. However, the secondary market has shown a split performance. On the one hand, last week's new bonds benefited from the squeeze after the US CPI data and are trading much tighter - e.g. Jyske 11/27, and the new UCGIM 11/27 as the high flyer - carried by the good market sentiment. This week's new issues are still trading slightly higher. Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 17 November 2022 5 of 7 the potential scheme at the political level, news agency TASS reported, citing VTB CEO Andrey Kostin. RBI's Rus- sian unit is one of Russia's systemically important banks. 11/10 ESG Due Diligence framework: Several EU member states, including Germany, France and Italy, are calling on the European Commission to shield or fully exclude the financial sector from the proposed Corporate Sustaina- bility Due Diligence framework, EU documents seen by Reuters showed. 11/10 Spanish bank tax: Spain's ruling coalition put forward amendments to its banking tax proposal, widening its scope to include local units of foreign financial institutions under direct ECB supervision, regardless of the amount of their revenue, Reuters reported. The move comes after the ECB raised concerns over the temporary bank levy, which aims to raise €3 billion by 2024, saying it could hurt banks' capital and negatively impact compe- tition and financial sector stability. \* Closing prices from the previous day Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory, \* ASW-Spreads Market Data (current\*, vs. 1 week, vs. 4 weeks) E-STOXX 600 Banks 135 1.55% 7.05% iBoxx € Cov. Germany 4.0 0.4 2.0 iTraxx Senior Financial 105.7 -11.5 -31.8 10Yr-Yield 2.01 -0.17 -0.36 iBoxx € Cov. Bonds 15.6 1.1 4.3 iBoxx € Supranational 9.3 0.77 2.80 Swap 10J 2.70 -0.24 -0.55 iBoxx € Banks PS 94.2 -7.0 -5.3 iBoxx € Agencies -5.0 2.57 7.72 iBoxx € Germany -57.4 4.19 11.21 iBoxx Banks NPS 138.5 -10.9 -13.7 iBoxx € Sub-Sov. Germany 4.4 2.21 5.65 iBoxx € EU 14.1 -0.15 0.21 iBoxx Banks Subordinated 224.3 -16.0 -32.4 iBoxx € Sub-Sovereign 21.3 1.05 3.60 Leisure tip for the weekend: Bergpark Wilhelmshöhe in Kassel Do you have ideas for leisure tips? We would be happy to receive your suggestions at research@helaba.de. Source: https://museum-kassel.de/en/museums-parks-palaces/unesco-world-heritage-site-of-bergpark-wilhelmshoehe/wilhelmshoehe-palace Bergpark Wilhelmshöhe - With an area of 2.4 square kilometers, Bergpark Wil- helmshöhe in Kassel is the largest mountain park in Europe and has been a UNESCO World Heritage since 2013. The impressive sight in Hesse was cre- ated as a park as early as 1696 and expanded again and again in the following 150 years. The Bergpark Wilhelmshöhe offers not only a beautiful view over Kassel, but also many architectural highlights, such as the Wilhelmshöhe Pal- ace, which today houses, among other things, the art gallery "Old Masters" and presents about 500 paintings, and shows an excellent overview of the Eu- ropean painting series from the late Gothic to Classicism. Another highlight in the Bergpark is the 11.3 m tall statue of Hercules, which is enthroned on the top of a steep pyramid on a grotto structure on the summit of the Karlsberg. More information: wilhelmshöhe palace | Museumslandschaft Hessen Kas- sel (museum-kassel.de) Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 17 November 2022 6 of 7 Chartbook SSA, Covered Bonds, Senior Unsecured Senior Primary volumes Senior Unsecured: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2021 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Preferred 2021 Senior Non-preferred 2022 Senior Non-preferred 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Nov.21 Jan.22 Mrz.22 Mai.22 Jul.22 Sep.22 Nov.22 Banks Subordinated Banks Senior Bail-in Banks Senior Preferred Covered Primary volumes Covered Bonds: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2022 2020 2021 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Nov.21 Jan.22 Mrz.22 Mai.22 Jul.22 Sep.22 Nov.22 EUR Covered Covered Germany SSA: Primary volumes SSA: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2020 2021 2022 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 Nov. 21 Jan. 22 Mrz. 22 Mai. 22 Jul. 22 Sep. 22 Nov. 22 Sub-Sovereigns Agencies Supranationals Sub-Sovereigns Germany Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 17 November 2022 7 of 7 News from Research & Advisory  Focus on Credits - European banks: Q3 results instil confidence  FOCUS ON CREDITS - BASEL III AND THE EU COUNCIL'S POSITION ON THE LEGISLATIVE PACKAGE  FOCUS ON: SUSTAINABLE FINANCE - THE RENDEZVOUS CLAUSE  FOCUS ON: CREDITS - PRIMARY MARKET UPDATE EUR BENCHMARK BANK BONDS: Q3 2022  FOCUS ON: CREDITS - EUR CORPORATE BONDS: PRIMARY MARKET Q3 2022  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – BANK AND COVERED BOND PROFILES GERMANY  FOCUS ON: SSAS – GERMAN AGENCIES  FOCUS ON: COVERED BONDS – EUROPEAN COVERED BONDS: CENTRAL WEBSITE PROVIDES CLARITIY  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – EUROPEAN BANKS: CLIMATE RISK STRESS TEST HIGHLIGHTS NEED FOR FURHTER ACTION  EUROPEAN BANKS: ACTIVITIES BECOMING EVER GREENER  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE: SPAIN VERSUS FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE – STATE OF PLAY: AUSTRIA VERSUS FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE – STATE OF PLAY IN FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  COVERED-BOND-LAWS: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU REGULATION (VIDEO) Team of authors Publisher and editorial office Helaba Research & Advisory Editor: Stefan Rausch Corporate Research & Advisory Responsible: Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chefvolkswirtin/ Head of Research & Advisory Neue Mainzer Str. 52-58 60311 Frankfurt am Main T +49 69 / 91 32 - 20 Internet: www.helaba.com Disclaimer This publication has been prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains only non-binding analyses and forecasts of current and future market conditions. The information is based on sources which we consider to be reliable, but for whose accuracy, completeness or up-to-dateness we cannot assume any liability. All state- ments made in this publication are for information purposes only. They must not be understood as an offer or recommendation for investment de- cisions. Here you can subscribe to our newsletter: https://news.helaba.de/research/ Dr. Susanne Knips Senior Credit Analyst T 069/91 32-32 11 Sabrina Miehs, CESGA Head of FI & SSA Research Senior Advisor Sustainable Finance T 069/91 32-48 90 Christian Schmidt Covered Bond & SSA Analyst T 069/91 32-23 88

Covered bonds: EUR 200 billion sound barrier for issuance volume broken. SSA: Many issuers have largely completed their funding projects. Senior unsecured: Extremely lively activity used for pre-funding.