--- title: "SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update" url: https://www.helaba.com/en/ssa-and-financials-weekly-market-update-21 type: dd_research language: en updated: 2026-09-28 keywords: Renten, Weekly Market Update_englisch --- # SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update Focus on: SSA & Financials 1 December 2022 © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 1 December 2022 1 of 7 Research & Advisory Weekly Market Update Primary market environment: With inflation figures easing in Spain and Germany, the mood on the primary market brightened. In the wake of this, hopes were raised that the ECB will opt for a rate hike of 50 bps at its next meeting. Speaking of the ECB, statements on possible QT tapering in 2023 are also eagerly awaited. The risk trend indicator has turned from green to red for bonds from the SSA and covered bond segments . Not necessarily untypical for the end of the year with reduced demand. At least the market environment for the issu- ance of senior unsecured bank bonds was once again quite constructive. Primary market barometer In the SSA segment, the picture has hardly changed compared with the previous weeks. There are still hardly any transactions. The funding plans seem to be completed for this year. One highlight was that the EIB used blockchain technology to issue a bond. Somewhat declining inflation figures and the associated interest rate ex- pectations made themselves felt pos- itively on the primary market. This week's new issues went through smoothly. However, as the end of the year approaches, the opportunities for issuance are becoming fewer. After a slowdown at the beginning of the week, the primary market for sen- ior unsecured bank bonds picked up noticeably again today. Issuers took advantage of the constructive market environment also for non-preferred transactions. Yet, the year is drawing to a close and a pause in activity is foreseeable. Covered Bonds Senior Unsecured SSA Risk trend indicator: End of the year casts a shadow Relative\* ASW spread change \* ASW levels standardized and 2T-smoothed Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory IB OXX EUR O 1 day 1 week 4 week 13 weeks 52 weeks 104 weeks Germany -0,06 -0,10 0,62 1,41 -0,28 -1,87 European Union 0,08 0,17 0,28 1,37 1,90 1,92 Germany Covered 0,11 0,19 0,34 0,40 0,98 0,21 EU Covered 0,03 0,06 0,18 0,27 0,58 0,37 Banks senior preferred -0,02 -0,26 -0,40 0,26 1,82 1,66 Banks senior bail-in (SNP) -0,03 -0,17 -0,42 0,18 1,99 1,88 Banks subordinated -0,05 -0,38 -0,67 -0,38 1,54 1,39 Supranational 0,08 0,19 0,43 1,08 1,48 1,16 Agencies 0,04 0,17 0,70 1,27 0,32 -0,31 Sub-Sovereigns Germany 0,07 0,20 0,58 0,77 -0,67 -0,89 Sub-Sovereigns 0,06 0,14 0,46 1,03 0,30 -0,06 strong middle weak unchanged weak middle strong spread widening spread tightening Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 1 December 2022 2 of 7 SSA The activities in the SSA segment are currently manageable and thus only play a secondary role. It is noteworthy that the EIB issued a EUR 100 million bond (MS-33) on Tuesday using a private block- chain technology (Ethereum). The focus was to gain further insights in the use of digital technology and the set- tlement process. The transaction was the second tranche based on a digital process, although the initial place- ment was still conducted via a public platform. Already on Monday, the EU was active in the classic format (auc- tion). Two outstanding benchmark issues were raised by a total of EUR 16.27 billion. Outlook: The bulk of issuers have already closed the books for this year. For example, the lack of financing re- quirements at the federal states contributed to this. As January is traditionally one of the strongest months of the year in terms of issuance, a contrasting picture can be expected right at the start of the new year, and thus a sig- nificant increase in issuance activity. This is despite the fact that it can be assumed that advance financing has al- ready been provided in anticipation of rising interest rates and a widening of spreads. Covered Bonds As the end of the year approaches, issuers whose funding plans have not yet been fully completed are under time pressure. At least, the somewhat softening inflation figures have been conducive to moderate interest rate declines. At the same time, expectations of the next ECB rate hike were reduced, so that the majority of the market now assumes a 50 bps increase. Primary market activity also benefited from this develop- ment. Since Monday, 4 issues with a longest maturity of 5 years have been successfully placed. France's Credit Mutuel Home Loan SFH generated an order book of EUR1.45 billion for the covered (EUR1 billion, 5-year), which is 100% secured by prime residential loans. The final spread of MS+18 was 2 bps be- low the marketing spread. Com- merzbank chose a 3-year ma- turity for its Pfandbrief issue. In view of good demand - the order book was oversubscribed by al- most 1.8 times - the bond (UR 1 billion) was ultimately priced at MS+1 vs. MS+ 5 in marketing and a new issue premium of 3 bps. The latest issue increased Coba's placement volume this year to EUR 5.25 billion. Credit Suisse (Switzerland) probably closed the constructive week in the segment with its euro-comeback today. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 2,000% EU Aaa /AA+/AAA 2,265bn  04.10.2027 Auction 28.11.2022 2,330bn Auction 1,250% EU Aaa /AA+/AAA 1,000bn  04.02.2043 Auction  28.11.2022 1,930bn Auction 2,507% EIB Aaa /AAA/AAA 0,100bn 29.11.2024 ms -33 bps 29.11.2022 not disclosed ms - 33 area 0,625% KommuneKredit Aaa /AAA/- 0,300bn  11.05.2026 ms -7 bps 30.11.2022 0,300bn ms - 7 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € SSA issues week of 28 November 2022 Risk premiums increase differently and force differentiation iBoxx Covered Bond-Indizes, ASW in bps Sources: Refinitv, Helaba Research & Advisory -10 0 10 20 30 40 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Austria Covered France Covered Germany Covered Italy Covered Netherlands Covered Spain Covered Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 1 December 2022 3 of 7 Since April of this year, the spreads of various jurisdictions have been continuously diverging, illustrating in- creased differentiation. German Pfandbriefe, as recently issued by Commerzbank, thus remain relatively more ex- pensive. In our view, this trend will continue in the new year. In the secondary market, there are widespread fears that there will be renewed upward pressure on spreads when activity resumes in January 2023. There are also fears that the coming months will be very challenging, particu- larly with respect to the ability of market makers to smooth. A gradual pullback by central banks seems to be a foregone conclusion, although analyses conclude that QE played a rather subordinate role in terms of overall vol- ume. Our traders do not share the result of these studies in terms of spread effects, especially since the covered bond market has not been structurally homogeneous for many years, supposedly small changes in the adjusting screws are significant. In the week ending November 25, 2022, the ECB reduced its CBPP3 holdings by a relatively significant EUR 453 million compared to the previous week, as we expected at the end of the year. In terms of APP, holding positions in the amount of EUR 2.28 billion were reduced. Outlook: The remaining issuance window this year is steadily shrinking. The recent brightening of sentiment could encourage issuers to become active in the short term, especially as the primary market is expected to be very crowded in January. Senior Unsecured After it initially appeared at the beginning of the week as if the expected year-end calm had already set in, the primary market for senior unsecured bonds picked up again noticeably today. A total of five transactions in EUR benchmark format with fixed coupons were realized since Monday. Of these, three were non-preferred bonds. The Maltese Bank of Valetta was able to finalize its project for a non-preferred issue with a volume of EUR 325 million, which had already been announced in September. Issuers thus took advantage of the quite constructive market environment to issue bonds with weaker ratings. Medium to longer maturities were also in good demand, provided adequate spread premiums. Outlook: The primary market for senior unsecured bank bonds has been surprisingly active since the summer break, albeit at higher risk premiums. Many banks have overfulfilled their issuance plans; high funding reserves are in demand in uncertain times. In addition, the institutions want to ensure that they can meet their regulatory Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 2,750% Credit M utuel Home Loan SFH Aaa /AAA/AAA 1,000bn 08.12.2027 ms +18 bps 29.11.2022 1,450bn ms + 20 area 2,750% Commerzbank AG Aaa /-/- 1,000bn 08.12.2025 ms +1 bps 29.11.2022 1,800bn ms + 5 area 2,750% Arkéa Home Loans SFH Aaa /-/AAA 0,500bn 22.12.2026 ms +15 bps 30.11.2022 0,600bn ms + 15 area t.b.d. Credit Suisse (Schweiz) AG - /-/AAA 0,750 bn 05.12.2025 ms +73 bps 01.12.2022 1,150 bn ms + 75 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Covered Bond issues week of 28 November 2022 "The secondary market continues to work off increased swap levels! A sustainable recovery is not discernible in view of the unchanged framework conditions (no support from central banks, compression pressure in the Bund / swap spreads). At best, with the latest new issues <5Y, such as CMZB 2 ¾ 12/08/25 Corp -issued at MS+1- the NIP's are gradually pricing themselves out. It is quite conceivable that with primary market activity expected to close soon for the year, the pressure will ease somewhat.". Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 1 December 2022 4 of 7 requirements (MREL/TLAC) even in the case of a more difficult market environment. The year is now drawing to a close and the books will soon be closed. A significant slowdown in activity is therefore foreseeable In our view. Short news 11/31 ESG is taking over the loan market: Bankers expect at least half of the loan deals for invest- ment-grade firms in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa to be tied to environmental, social, and gov- ernance (ESG) targets in 2023, based on interviews conducted by Bloomberg. Firms are putting greater emphasis on this amid a push from regulators to force banks to pay closer attention to ESG. 11/26 Fitch Ratings on covered bonds in Singapore: According to Fitch Singapore covered bonds are on the right track to achieve equivalence with the European Union covered bonds, as they comply with most aspects of the EU Directive. The rating agency stressed that Singapore’s covered bonds are rated AAA, equal to or higher than cov- ered bonds in the EU. 11/26 Moody’s on planned credit register in Estonia: On 22 November, the Estonian Finance Ministry and bank- ing association advanced plans to introduce a credit register to provide a comprehensive account of loan appli- cants' existing debt. According to the agency, the measure is credit positive for the asset quality of Estonian banks and their covered bonds because it will increase the transparency of household indebtedness. The Ministry plans to establish the necessary legal framework in 2023 to operate the register from 2025 11/25 ECB hits banks with leveraged-loan capital charges: The European Central Bank (ECB) is imposing higher capital requirements on lenders including BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank, arguing that they have ignored warn- ings to cut risk in the lucrative business of leveraged finance, according to people familiar with the matter heard by Bloomberg. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 4,625% M ediobanca SpA Baa1 /BBB/BBB 0,500bn 07.02.2029 ms +195 bps  28.11.2022 1,600bn ms + 225 area 6,625% illimity Bank SpA -/-/BB- 0,300bn 09.12.2025 6,625% 01.12.2022 0,500 bn 7,00% area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Preferred issues week of 28 November 2022 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 10,000% Bank of Valetta - /-/BBB- 0,325bn 06.12.2027 ms +730 bps 29.11.2022 0,460bn 10% area 6,125% BPER Banca S.p.A. Ba2/-/BB- 0,500bn 01.02.2028 ms +360 bps 01.12.2022 2,100bn ms + 400 area tbd Société Générale Baa2/BBB/A- 1,500bn 06.12.2030 ms +180 bps 01.12.2022 5,500bn ms + 220 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Non-preferred issues week of 28 November 2022 „Due to the holiday day (Thanksgiving) and the shortened trading day on Black Friday, flows were rather be- low average; they were balanced between buyers and sellers overall - also in terms of maturities - but in rela- tively small volumes. ETF funds were active on both the bid and aks side. Asset managers and insurance com- panies took advantage of the still attractive spreads and tended to act as buyers. Here, yesterday's "Monthly Rebalancing" could provide some momentum again. Einschätzungen aus dem Handelsraum der Helaba Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 1 December 2022 5 of 7 11/24 Spain to push ahead with windfall tax on banks and energy groups: Spain will push ahead with its contro- versial plan to impose windfall taxes on banks and energy companies with lawmakers set to approve the move de- spite the concerns of international institutions. As reported by the Financial Times, an amendment says that at the end of 2024 the Spanish authorities should evaluate whether the taxes should be made permanent. 11/22 S&P on credit outlook for Danish covered bonds: According to the agency’s view, stable issuer ratings and outlooks and a strong sovereign will continue to support ratings stability for Danish covered bonds despite in- creasing interest rates and continued inflationary pressure. \* Closing prices from the previous day Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory, \* ASW-Spreads Market Data (current\*, vs. 1 week, vs. 4 weeks) E-STOXX 600 Banks 140 1,20% 8,13% iBoxx € Cov. Germany 5,7 2,4 2,7 iTraxx Senior Financial 102,4 3,4 -18,3 10Yr-Yield 1,95 0,02 -0,19 iBoxx € Cov. Bonds 17,7 2,4 4,7 iBoxx € Supranational 12,3 3,04 4,84 Swap 10J 2,61 -0,05 -0,45 iBoxx € Banks PS 84,0 -5,3 -9,5 iBoxx € Agencies -2,3 3,78 10,13 iBoxx € Germany -59,5 0,33 10,41 iBoxx Banks NPS 129,2 -4,6 -13,5 iBoxx € Sub-Sov. Germany 10,0 3,80 9,21 iBoxx € EU 16,7 3,02 3,40 iBoxx Banks Subordinated 194,9 -19,0 -36,5 iBoxx € Sub-Sovereign 24,0 2,71 5,70 Leisure tip for the weekend: Christmas tree felling at Schloss Wissen, Weeze Do you have ideas for leisure tips? We would be happy to receive your suggestions at research@helaba.de. Source: https://schloss-wissen.de/en/felling-your-own-christmas-tree/ Schloss Wissen, Weeze - With a self-cut tree your Christmas celebration gets a very individual touch. Children in particular are proud and happy when they return from their winter adventure from the forest with their favorite tree. The forestry operation plants several thousand Nordmann firs every year, which are lovingly cared for at least eight years until they have grown into magnificent Christmas trees and bring a sparkle to children's eyes. But it is not only the appearance of the Nordmann fir that brings joy: as it neither needles nor pricks, it is particularly easy to care for. By the way: a 2m tree needs about 2L of water per day. After cutting the fir tree, mulled wine and various delicacies await you at the huts. More information: Felling your own Christmas tree – Schloss Wissen (schloss-wissen.de) Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 1 December 2022 6 of 7 Chartbook SSA, Covered Bonds, Senior Unsecured Senior Primary volumes Senior Unsecured: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2021 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Preferred 2021 Senior Non-preferred 2022 Senior Non-preferred 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Nov.21 Jan.22 Mrz.22 Mai.22 Jul.22 Sep.22 Nov.22 Banks Subordinated Banks Senior Bail-in Banks Senior Preferred Covered Primary volumes Covered Bonds: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2022 2020 2021 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Nov.21 Jan.22 Mrz.22 Mai.22 Jul.22 Sep.22 Nov.22 EUR Covered Covered Germany SSA: Primary volumes SSA: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2020 2021 2022 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 Nov. 21 Jan. 22 Mrz. 22 Mai. 22 Jul. 22 Sep. 22 Nov. 22 Sub-Sovereigns Agencies Supranationals Sub-Sovereigns Germany Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 1 December 2022 7 of 7 News from Research & Advisory  Markets and Trends 2023  Focus on Credits - European banks: Q3 results instil confidence  FOCUS ON CREDITS - BASEL III AND THE EU COUNCIL'S POSITION ON THE LEGISLATIVE PACKAGE  FOCUS ON: SUSTAINABLE FINANCE - THE RENDEZVOUS CLAUSE  FOCUS ON: CREDITS - PRIMARY MARKET UPDATE EUR BENCHMARK BANK BONDS: Q3 2022  FOCUS ON: CREDITS - EUR CORPORATE BONDS: PRIMARY MARKET Q3 2022  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – BANK AND COVERED BOND PROFILES GERMANY  FOCUS ON: SSAS – GERMAN AGENCIES  FOCUS ON: COVERED BONDS – EUROPEAN COVERED BONDS: CENTRAL WEBSITE PROVIDES CLARITIY  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – LIVE DEALS – A USEFUL INDICATOR FOR PLANNING ISSUANCE  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – EUROPEAN BANKS: CLIMATE RISK STRESS TEST HIGHLIGHTS NEED FOR FURHTER ACTION  EUROPEAN BANKS: ACTIVITIES BECOMING EVER GREENER  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE: SPAIN VERSUS FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE – STATE OF PLAY: AUSTRIA VERSUS FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE – STATE OF PLAY IN FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  COVERED-BOND-LAWS: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU REGULATION (VIDEO) Team of authors Publisher and editorial office Helaba Research & Advisory Editor: Sabrina Miehs Corporate Research & Advisory Responsible: Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chefvolkswirtin/ Head of Research & Advisory Neue Mainzer Str. 52-58 60311 Frankfurt am Main T +49 69 / 91 32 - 20 Internet: www.helaba.com Disclaimer This publication has been prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains only non-binding analyses and forecasts of current and future market conditions. The information is based on sources which we consider to be reliable, but for whose accuracy, completeness or up-to-dateness we cannot assume any liability. All state- ments made in this publication are for information purposes only. They must not be understood as an offer or recommendation for investment de- cisions. Here you can subscribe to our newsletter: https://news.helaba.de/research/ Dr. Susanne Knips Senior Credit Analyst T 069/91 32-32 11 Sabrina Miehs, CESGA Head of FI & SSA Research Senior Advisor Sustainable Finance T 069/91 32-48 90 Christian Schmidt Covered Bond & SSA Analyst T 069/91 32-23 88 Covered bonds: Shorter maturities remain in demand. SSA: Issuance plans largely completed. Senior unsecured: Pre-funding in uncertain times.