---
title: "SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update"
url: https://www.helaba.com/en/ssa-and-financials-weekly-market-update-16
type: dd_research
language: en
updated: 2026-09-28
keywords: Renten, Weekly Market Update_englisch
---

# SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update

Focus on: SSA & Financials 26 January 2023 © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 26 January 2023 1 of 7 Research & Advisory Weekly Market Update Primary market environment: The primary markets continue to run at full speed. January is the most active month ever in terms of bond sales. Records are being broken in rows. The Ifo busi- ness climate in Germany rises for the fourth time in a row. The Fed will raise interest rates by 25 bps and the ECB by 50 bps next week, according to consensus estimates. Risk aversion has eased for the second week in a row. Accordingly, our risk trend indicator is showing an increas- ing green tint in the short term. Primary market barometer The general conditions in the SSA segment continue to be favourable. After the minor teething problems at the beginning of the year, issuing ac- tivities have now picked up speed. It is particularly noteworthy that 30- year maturities are also passing through again without any problems. Primary supply meets stable demand, so it is not surprising that the volume issued in January is at a record level. Looking ahead, the question is whether the ECB will change its pur- chasing strategy as early as February. Issuance volumes in senior unsecured bank bonds have weakened noticeably recently, which was to be expected in view of the quarterly reporting season and the blackout periods in Europe. Next weeks, a number of banks will present their annual financial state- ments, so we expect a further slow- down in activity. Covered Bonds Senior Unsecured SSA Risk trend indicator: Risk aversion decreases Relative\* ASW spread change \* ASW levels standardized and 2T-smoothed Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory IBOXX EURO 1 day 1 week 4 week 13 weeks 52 weeks 104 weeks Germany -0,08 -0,34 -0,05 1,38 0,31 -0,74 European Union 0,01 -0,12 0,58 1,10 2,64 2,92 Germany Covered -0,04 -0,07 0,28 0,63 1,20 0,71 EU Covered 0,00 -0,01 0,16 0,38 0,80 0,66 Banks senior preferred -0,09 -0,41 0,02 -0,95 1,46 1,18 Banks senior bail-in (SNP) -0,11 -0,48 -0,23 -1,20 1,30 1,06 Banks subordinated -0,05 -0,26 -0,25 -1,19 1,15 1,09 Supranational 0,01 -0,08 0,59 1,21 2,24 2,28 Agencies -0,03 -0,20 0,06 1,10 0,64 0,17 Sub-Sovereigns Germany 0,02 -0,09 0,35 0,90 -0,14 -0,39 Sub-Sovereigns -0,01 -0,23 0,41 0,87 0,80 0,60 strong middle weak unchanged weak middle strong spread widening spread tightening Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 26 January 2023 2 of 7 SSA The emission activities continued unabated. So far, there are no signs that this might change in the near future. A total of 8 transactions with a volume of EUR 13.35 billion were carried out this week. The EU made a very successful appearance with a 30-year issue. The state of North Rhine-Westphalia made use of a dual tranche. The total volume of EUR 5 billion was divided equally between a 9-year and a 30-year maturity. For both, the final spreads could be tightened by 2 bps compared to the marketing. The oversubscription rates were very good at 5.2 and 4.8 respectively. Overall, the 30-year transactions should be highlighted as they prove that investors are willing to invest at the long end of the yield curve even in an inverse yield curve environment. How- ever, the curve inversion leads to very high spreads compared to the swap curve, which rules out an issue with such maturities for many issuers from a cost perspective. Outlook: The hustle and bustle on the primary market is likely to continue in the coming days and weeks. Among other things, the lack of seasonal patterns in the SSA segment as well as possible catch-up effects in the wake of the weaker start to the year will contribute to this. The state of Berlin is already in the pipeline with a sustainability bond and another federal state has announced a 10-year bond. Covered Bonds Issuing activity continues to run at full speed, so that the first month of the year could be the busiest January ever. The upcoming month-end and the concern that the ECB will reduce the order rates for new issues with a February value date to 10% have caused an increase in activity compared to the previous week. The EUR 40 billion mark (YTD) was thus exceeded. There also seems to be some activity in terms of maturities after Deutsche Kreditbank successfully placed the longest euro benchmark - a 12-year EUR 500 million social Pfandbrief - in over six months. Including this transac- tion, three ESG bonds were placed this week. Banque Postale Home Loan SFH was a social debut issue. Caja Rural de Navarra came up with a green labelled bond. Slovenská sporitel'ňa issued the first covered bond from Slovakia this year. Short to medium maturities remain the first choice for investors. The average maturity this week is 5.1 years. "The trend is your friend" is a stock market adage. If one believes this, one would have to assume that the trend towards widening spreads (chart), which is clearly evident in parts, will continue. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 2,750% Niedersachsen - /-/AAA 0,750bn 17.02.2031 ms -1 bps 23.01.2023 1,150bn ms flat area 2,900% Region Ile de France Aa2 /-/AA 0,600bn 30.04.2031 FRTRs + 46 bp  23.01.2023 2,300bn FRTRs 50 area 3,000% EU Aaa /AA+/AAA 5,000bn  04.03.2053 ms +86 bps 24.01.2023 51,900bn ms + 88 area 2,750% NRW Aa1 /AA/AAA 2,500bn 15.01.2032 ms +2 bps 25.01.2023 8,500bn ms + 4 area 2,900% NRW Aa1 /AA/AAA 2,500bn 15.01.2053 ms +68 bps 25.01.2023 10,500bn ms + 70 area 3,050% Ile-de-France Mobilités Aa3 /-/AA- 0,500bn 03.02.2033 FRTRs + 49 bp  25.01.2023 2,600bn FRTRs +52 area 3,400% Ile-de-France Mobilités Aa3 /-/AA- 0,500bn 25.05.2043 FRTR + 54 bp  25.01.2023 2,400bn FRTR +57 area 2,875% Bpifrance Financement Aa2 /-/AA 1,000bn 25.11.2029 FRTR +45 Bp 26.01.2023 2,000bn FRTR +47 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € SSA issues week of 23 January 2023 "The extreme inversion of yield curves continues to prevent the swapperformance of covereds (in line with other asset classes) beyond 5-year maturities. Since this week, this basic scenario has been joined by exam- ples that give cause for hope. For example, the follow-on performance of the 12Y DKRED is quite remarkable (issued at MS+22, currently MS+18 midmarket) which was not to be expected given the prevailing investor behavior." Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 26 January 2023 3 of 7 In the past 3 months the risk premiums of covered paper from France and Austria have in- creased the most. This can partly be explained by the very extensive primary market activi- ties. Covereds with a volume of EUR 4.85 billion were issued from the Alpine republic this month, which is around 29% of the previous year's volume. Overall, it seems that the high premiums are increasingly at- tracting new (or former) buyers. However, the "supply tsunami" should subside in the medium term, so that the pressure that caused high secondary spreads via high new issue premiums will ease in the medium term. The central driver is and remains the yield curve, which will continue to determine the direction of swap spreads. Outlook: The big question is to what extent the ECB will change its activities from next month. Overall, the month to date has also been characterised by very high maturities. This constellation will change in any case, so that the issuance volume should remain high in the coming weeks, but no longer approach the extremely strong January. Senior Unsecured Primary market activity in the senior unsecured segment has slowed down noticeably this week, which was to be expected in view of the upcoming reporting season of European banks and the asso- ciated blackout periods. However, the five new issues announced since Monday met with buoyant demand in the friendly market environment. This week, the stage belongs to issuers that are usually not regularly active in the primary market, such as the Spanish Kutxabank, Hypo Niederösterreich-Wien or Oldenburgische Landesbank. PKO Bank Polski, which very successfully placed EUR 750 million on the basis of a 3.3-fold oversubscription, met with particular investor demand. Outlook: While the major U.S. banks have already presented their Q4 2022 results, the reporting season in Europe really gets going next week. The onset of blackout periods could therefore further dampen issuance activity. The reporting season is likely to focus primarily on the impact of rising interest rates, the development of deposit and loan volumes, and possible signs of increasing loan defaults. While banks are among the winners of rising in- terest rates, problem loan ratios have recently remained surprisingly stable despite their low level. (See in detail our “Credit outlook for European banks2023”). Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3,250% Slovenská sporiteľňa Aaa /-/- 0,500bn 12.01.2026 ms +33 bps 23.01.2023 0,620bn ms + 35 area 3,000% La Banque Postale Home Loan SFH - /AAA/- 1,250bn 31.01.2031 ms +27 bps  23.01.2023 1,600bn ms + 30 area 3,000% Deutsche Kreditbank AG Aaa /-/- 0,500bn 31.01.2035 ms +22 bps  23.01.2023 1,200bn ms + 25 area 3,125% Hypo Tirol Bank AG Aa1 /-/- 0,300bn 31.01.2028 ms +29 bps  23.01.2023 0,415bn ms + 32 area 3,263% National Australia Bank Aaa /-/AAA 1,500bn 13.02.2026 ms +25 bps 23.01.2023 2,250bn ms + 30 area 3,125% RLB Oberösterreich AG Aaa /-/- 0,750bn 30.01.2026 ms +18 bps 24.01.2023 1,000bn ms + 22 area 3,000% BNPP Home Loan SFH - /AAA/AAA 1,000bn 31.01.2030 ms +22 bps 24.01.2023 2,700bn ms + 27 area 2,875% Commerzbank AG Aaa /-/- 1,000bn 28.04.2026 ms -3 bps 24.01.2023 2,200bn ms + 2 area 3,375% Tatra Banka a.s. Aaa /-/- 0,500bn 31.01.2026 ms +48 bps 25.01.2023 0,700bn ms+ 50 area 3,000% Achmea Bank N.V. - /AAA/- 0,500bn 31.01.2030 ms +29 bps 25.01.2023 1,300bn ms + 32 area 3,000% Arkéa Home Loans SFH Aaa /-/AAA 0,750bn 30.03.2027 ms +19 bps 25.01.2023 1,400bn ms + 23 area 3,250% Lloyds Bank plc Aaa /-/AAA 1,000bn 02.02.2026 ms +24 bps 26.01.2023 4,000bn ms +30 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Covered Bond issues week of 23 January 2023 French and Austrian spreads with largest widening ASW \* Portugal: Year-to-date value not representative without relevant turnover Quellen: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory 11,1 11,5 6,2 9,5 9,8 8,3 9,0 8,5 4,1 10,7 9,6 3,5 3,4 1,6 2,4 2,8 2,6 1,8 1,5 -0,2 2,9 2,6 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Austria Covered France Covered Germany Covered Netherlands Covered Norway Covered Sweden Covered UK Covered Italy Covered Portugal Covered Spain Covered Covered Change since beginning of year Change since 3 months Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 26 January 2023 4 of 7 Short news 1/26 French OFH Ratings Protected Against Deteriorating Asset Performance: The French Obliga- tions Financement de l’Habitat (OFH) issued by the six Fitch-rated Societes de Financement de l’Hab- itat (SFH) programmes benefit from ample over-collateralisation (OC). This allows them to absorb significant dete- rioration in asset performance, a decline in house prices and a reduction of available excess spread, Fitch Ratings says in a new report. 1/24 ESG supervision: The European Central Bank published its maiden set of climate-related statistical indi- cators through which it aims to better examine the impact of climate-related risks on the financial sector and monitor the development of sustainable and green finance. The new indicators are either experimental or analyti- cal, with the former meeting many but not all of the quality requirements of official ECB statistics, the regulator said. 1/24 Banking package - ECON keeps an eye on some specifics of the European banking market: The European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) proposed numerous amendments to the Euro- pean Commission's legislative proposal on the implementation of Basel III in the European Union (EU) (the so- called banking package) in its meeting today after long and partly controversial discussions. This paves the way Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 4,000% HYPO NOE - /A/- 0,500bn 01.02.2027 ms +115 bps  23.01.2023 1,750bn ms + 125/130 bp 4,000% Kutxabank, S.A. A3 /-/A 0,500bn 01.02.2028 ms +110 bps 23.01.2023 1,380bn ms + 130 area 5,625% Oldenburgische Landesbank AG Baa2 /-/- 0,300bn 02.02.2026 ms +270 bps 24.01.2023 0,500bn ms + 280 area 5,625% PKO Bank Polski SA A3 /-/- 0,750bn 01.02.2026 ms +250 bps 25.01.2023 2,400bn . Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Preferred issues week of 23 January 2023 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 4,000% Helaba A2 /-/A+ 0,750bn 04.02.2030 ms +125 bps  26.01.2023 1,900bn ms +145 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Non-preferred issues week of 23 January 2023 Issuer Date Issuer Date UNICREDIT SPA 1 / 31 DEUTSCHE BANK AG-REGISTERED 2 / 2 UBS GROUP AG-REG 1 / 31 BANCO SANTANDER SA 2 / 2 UNICREDIT BANK AG 1 / 31 SPAREBANKEN VEST 2 / 2 SWEDBANK AB - A SHARES 1 / 31 ING GROEP NV 2 / 2 BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTA 2 / 1 NORDEA BANK ABP 2 / 2 RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONA 2 / 1 INTESA SANPAOLO 2 / 3 Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Reporting dates of selected banks „The majority of turnover continues to take place in the new issues year to date, even though the focus is once again increasingly on older bonds. As the wave of new issues subsides, asset managers are increasingly inter- vening in the secondary market in an attempt to improve their own allocations somewhat. Particular atten- tion continues to be paid to the new FRNs, where performance, which was initially subdued in some cases, has picked up speed and has even attracted the attention of savings banks. Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 26 January 2023 5 of 7 for timely negotiations on the various proposals of the European legislative bodies, the so-called trilogue. (Deutsche Kreditwirtschaft) 1/24 Securitizations: Europe seeks to revive moribund securitization market. EU politicians will vote on a banking regulation change that reduces by half the increase in the capital on securitizations that would have occurred un- der new capital rules, the Financial Times (FT) reports. Hopes for change were boosted by a report from EU finan- cial watchdogs acknowledging shortcomings in the securitization framework. (Financial Times) 1/23 BaFin increasingly focuses on interest rate risks: In the view of the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin), another interest rate shock has become one of the greatest risks for the financial sector. Cur- rently, the abrupt rise in interest rates is already putting pressure on the profitability of many banks. This is due to losses in their securities portfolios. A further sudden and sharp rise in interest rates would place a heavy burden on some institutions. This is the conclusion of the report "Risks in the focus of BaFin 2023", which BaFin pub- lished on January 23, 2023. \* Closing prices from the previous day Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory, \* ASW-Spreads Market Data (current\*, vs. 1 week, vs. 4 weeks) E-STOXX 600 Banks 156 0,65% 10,42% iBoxx € Cov. Germany 6,4 -1,0 1,8 iTraxx Senior Financial 89,7 3,0 -11,5 10Yr-Yield 2,2 0,2 -0,3 iBoxx € Cov. Bonds 20,1 -0,7 3,4 iBoxx € Supranational 18,8 -1,41 5,81 Swap 10J 2,8 0,2 -0,4 iBoxx € Banks PS 69,0 -9,8 -1,2 iBoxx € Agencies 1,0 -2,37 0,28 iBoxx € Germany -49,6 -4,7 -1,2 iBoxx Banks NPS 102,2 -14,5 -9,4 iBoxx € Sub-Sov. Germany 13,6 -1,78 5,12 iBoxx € EU 24,5 -1,9 6,2 iBoxx Banks Subordinated 169,0 -12,2 -14,9 iBoxx € Sub-Sovereign 27,3 -2,92 4,20 Leisure tip for the weekend: World Luge Championships in Oberhof Do you have ideas for leisure tips? We would be happy to receive your suggestions at research@helaba.de. Source: https://www. Oberhof.de World Champions & Olympic Champions in Oberhof. Who will win the medals this time? The World Luge Championships will take place from 23 to 29 January 2023 in the LOTTO-Thüringen Ice Arena. In addition to the exciting competitions on the track, there is also a lot to discover off the track in Oberhof, such as the Winter Fun Park or the Exo- tarium. Further information: Oberhof Luge World Championships Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 26 January 2023 6 of 7 Chartbook SSA, Covered Bonds, Senior Unsecured Senior Primary volumes Senior Unsecured: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 Senior Non-preferred 2023 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Non-preferred 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Jan.22 Mrz.22 Mai.22 Jul.22 Sep.22 Nov.22 Jan.23 Banks Subordinated Banks Senior Bail-in Banks Senior Preferred Covered Primary volumes Covered Bonds: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 2022 2021 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Jan.22 Mrz.22 Mai.22 Jul.22 Sep.22 Nov.22 Jan.23 EUR Covered Covered Germany SSA: Primary volumes SSA: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2022 2021 2023 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 Jan. 22 Mrz. 22 Mai. 22 Jul. 22 Sep. 22 Nov. 22 Jan. 23 Sub-Sovereigns Agencies Supranationals Sub-Sovereigns Germany Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 26 January 2023 7 of 7 News from Research & Advisory  European banks: An optimistic outlook for 2023  Focus on: Primary Market update EUR Benchmark Bank Bonds Q4 2022  Focus on: Singaporean Covered Bonds - Top credit quality made in Asia  Credits: Corporate Schuldschein: Primary market 2022  Markets and Trends 2023  FOCUS ON CREDITS - BASEL III AND THE EU COUNCIL'S POSITION ON THE LEGISLATIVE PACKAGE  FOCUS ON: SUSTAINABLE FINANCE - THE RENDEZVOUS CLAUSE  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – BANK AND COVERED BOND PROFILES GERMANY  FOCUS ON: SSAS – GERMAN AGENCIES  FOCUS ON: COVERED BONDS – EUROPEAN COVERED BONDS: CENTRAL WEBSITE PROVIDES CLARITIY  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – LIVE DEALS – A USEFUL INDICATOR FOR PLANNING ISSUANCE  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – EUROPEAN BANKS: CLIMATE RISK STRESS TEST HIGHLIGHTS NEED FOR FURHTER ACTION  EUROPEAN BANKS: ACTIVITIES BECOMING EVER GREENER Team of authors Publisher and editorial office Helaba Research & Advisory Editor: Stefan Rausch Corporate Research & Advisory Responsible: Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chefvolkswirtin/ Head of Research & Advisory Neue Mainzer Str. 52-58 60311 Frankfurt am Main T +49 69 / 91 32 – 20 24 Internet: www.helaba.com Disclaimer This publication has been prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains only non-binding analyses and forecasts of current and future market conditions. The information is based on sources which we consider to be reliable, but for whose accuracy, completeness or up-to-dateness we cannot assume any liability. All state- ments made in this publication are for information purposes only. They must not be understood as an offer or recommendation for investment de- cisions. Here you can subscribe to our newsletter: https://news.helaba.de/research/ Dr. Susanne Knips Senior Credit Analyst T 069/91 32-32 11 Sabrina Miehs, CESGA Head of FI & SSA Research Senior Advisor Sustainable Finance T 069/91 32-48 90 Christian Schmidt Covered Bond & SSA Analyst T 069/91 32-23 88

SSAs: 30-year issues possible again. Covered Bonds: 40 billion EUR mark (YTD) broken in issuance volume. Senior Unsecured: Blackout periods cause less activity