---
title: "SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update"
url: https://www.helaba.com/en/ssa-and-financials-weekly-market-update-15
type: dd_research
language: en
updated: 2026-09-28
keywords: Renten, Weekly Market Update_englisch
---

# SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update

Focus on: SSA & Financials 2 February 2023 © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 2 February 2023 1 of 8 Research & Advisory Weekly Market Update Primary market environment: Primary markets remain constructive. The Fed raised rates by 25 bps as expected and the ECB by 50 bps. The International Monetary Fund sees a "turning point" for the global economy and raised its growth forecast for the first time in a year. Euro- zone inflation has eased, but record core inflation has not. After a short breather, our risk trend indicator shows that risk aversion is increasing again in the short term. The longer-term assessment remains negative. Primary market barometer Issuing activities continue in view of the favourable market environment, even though the high level of dy- namics in January could not be con- tinued in the last few days. The primary market environment continues to be constructive, so that lively issuing activity can be expected in February as well. The 20 % quota applied by the ECB probably until the end of March acts as an additional factor. Nevertheless, the high Janu- ary turnover figures should not be reached again. Primary market activity has also weak- ened significantly in this area. Last but not least, the blackout period due to the current quarterly reporting sea- son is causing issuers to adopt a wait- and-see approach. However, the mar- ket environment remains construc- tive. Covered Bonds Senior Unsecured SSA Risk trend indicator: Increasing risks in the short term Relative\* ASW spread change \* ASW levels standardized and 2T-smoothed Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory IBOXX EURO 1 day 1 week 4 week 13 weeks 52 weeks 104 weeks Germany 0,06 0,13 -0,11 0,97 0,37 -0,78 European Union 0,05 -0,07 0,31 0,88 2,52 2,88 Germany Covered -0,03 -0,13 0,07 0,32 1,15 0,60 EU Covered -0,01 -0,06 0,06 0,22 0,78 0,62 Banks senior preferred 0,04 -0,04 -0,51 -1,27 1,34 1,19 Banks senior bail-in (SNP) 0,00 -0,11 -0,72 -1,51 1,09 1,16 Banks subordinated 0,05 -0,11 -0,56 -1,44 0,98 1,06 Supranational 0,02 -0,10 0,31 0,94 2,17 2,19 Agencies 0,00 0,04 -0,08 0,74 0,71 0,20 Sub-Sovereigns Germany -0,02 -0,14 0,05 0,63 -0,30 -0,36 Sub-Sovereigns 0,00 -0,09 0,06 0,57 0,79 0,59 strong middle weak unchanged weak middle strong spread widening spread tightening Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 2 February 2023 2 of 8 SSA In the SSA segment, 48 issues with a volume of EUR 63.42 billion were placed in January. Of these, 8 transactions (EUR 12.2 billion) were supranationals. This week, the state of Hesse stood out impres- sively with its issue of a nearly 10-year state treasury note. Contrary to expectations, this was issued with a volume of EUR 2 billion. The order book of EUR 4.6 billion was impressive, so that Hesse managed to narrow the initial spread by 2 bps to final MS-1 during the bookbuilding. No new issue premium had to be offered. The result was also remarkable in comparison with the NRW bond issued the previous week, which was priced at MS+2 bps. The result was remarkable. Outlook: A Sustainable Development Bond of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is still in the pipe- line. The EU is also planning to place bonds with a volume of EUR 70 billion in the first half of the year as part of the NextGenerationEU programme. The next transaction is on the agenda for the week of 13-17 February. A further €10 billion is to be generated through the newly created Macro-Financial Assistance Programme for Ukraine. Covered Bonds The monthly balance sheet for January is impressive. 53 covered bonds with a volume of EUR 43.5 billion were issued. The average maturity was 5.7 years, with the securities of DekaBank and Deutsche Kreditbank standing out with maturities of two and 12 years, respectively. The issuers had to accept a new issue premium of almost 7 bps and the coupons averaged 3.04%. As expected, the high issuing momentum of January did not continue in the run-up to the interest rate decisions of various central banks in the past few days. This week, Sparkasse Hannover opened the February settlement period very successfully on Monday. The order book for the five-year EUR 250 million subbenchmark mortgage Pfandbrief peaked at EUR 750 million. This enabled the final spread to be narrowed by 4 bps to final MS+8. compared to the marketing. However, this issue was also in the spotlight for another reason: market participants were very eager to find out whether the ECB would maintain its quota of previously 20 % for the covered bond maturing in February. As we know today, this was not the case. This knowledge brought relief to issuers and at the same time increased planning certainty. . In the reporting week ending 27 January, the ECB significantly reduced its CBPP3 holdings by EUR 678 million compared to the previous week. Overall, we observe follow-up purchases by our clients for this year's issues, which closes existing allocation gaps. The picture is constructive, with the outstanding performance of the new Lloyds 3y, which was recently issued at MS+24 and is currently trading at Midmarket +12, worth mentioning! Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 2,000% EU Aaa /AA+/AAA 2,265bn  04.10.2027 Auction 28.11.2022 2,330bn Auction 1,000% EU Aaa /AA+/AAA 1,765bn  06.07.2032 Auction 30.01.2023 4,000bn Auction 2,875% Hessen - /AA+/- 2,000bn 10.01.2033 ms -1 bps 31.01.2023 4,600bn ms + 1 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € SSA issues week of 30 January 2023 "Overall, the constructive trend towards tighter swap spreads continues. There is a willingness to buy at the current levels on the part of both customers and liquidity providers. It is helpful that the primary markets have clearly taken their foot off the gas at the moment. This has significantly reduced the supply pressure. In addition, some market segments (core/Scandis/Canada) have run too far out in investor perception despite the strong market showing expected in the coming weeks." Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 2 February 2023 3 of 8 Outlook: The primary market environment remains constructive. The brisk issuance activity will continue in Febru- ary, although it is likely that January's turnover will not be matched. In the pipeline is Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. for a 5-year covered. Chart of the Week The tight real estate markets in large parts of the world represent an increasing risk overall, espe- cially since higher interest rates are putting pressure on the finan- cial situation of households and threaten to exacerbate the de- cline in prices. For covered bond investors, however, the effects should be limited. The rating agency Fitch, for example, em- phasises that covered bond rat- ings are well protected against rising interest rates. According to the agency, covered bond programmes benefit from a large overcollateralisation cushion and high issuer ratings, which underpins the neutral outlook for the covered bond sector in 2023 (see also News in Brief). Senior Unsecured Following the flood of new issuance in January (EUR 49.2 billion, double yoy), primary market activity in senior unsecured bank bonds in the EUR benchmark format has slowed down significantly this week, due to the blackout period caused by the ongoing reporting season. In addition, the central banks' interest rate decisions this week caused a wait-and-see attitude among issuers. However, the market environment remained friendly, and the calmer primary market is having a noticeably posi- tive effect on risk premiums in both the primary and secondary markets; even longer maturities are attracting more interest again. All three transactions since Monday were thus able to achieve solid results and narrow the spread by 25 bps during the book building. The reporting season of the banks also brings good support: the results published so far exceed the already high expectations of market participants. Some banks were able to report multi-year record results for 2022, in- cluding Unicredit, BBVA and Deutsche Bank. The main revenue growth driver is net interest income, which is bene- fiting from the rising interest rate environment, especially in the customer deposit business. Boosted by other effects (including the TLTRO premium), net interest income at some banks grew by up to 30% year-on-year in the 4th quarter. Even if such growth rates cannot be continued to the same extent, the sector can be expected to achieve good results also in 2023 (see our Credit publication: "European banks – An optimistic outlook for 2023" of January 11, 2023). Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3,000% Sparkasse Hannover - /-/AAA 0,250bn 07.02.2028 ms +8 bps 30.01.2023 0,675bn ms + 12 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Covered Bond issues week of 30 January 2023 Permanently rising house price indices are a thing of the past Index points \*2015 = 1000 Quellen: Eurostat, Helaba Research & Advisory 80 100 120 140 160 180 80 100 120 140 160 180 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 EU 27 Countries France Italy Spain Germany Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 2 February 2023 4 of 8 In addition, the quality of the loan portfolios remains very stable despite all the crises. Although banks have set aside additional provisions for loans to take account of the weak economic outlook, problem loan ratios remain encouragingly stable at a low level or are even declining further in some cases. However, the developments in customer deposits raise ques- tions: Despite all the euphoria about margin develop- ment in the second half of 2022, market participants are paying extremely close attention to both declining volumes and the delay in passing on higher interest rates to customers. The ECB's latest Bank Lending Survey also clouded the picture somewhat, raising fears of a decline in corporate loan demand in the cur- rent quarter (see Short news). Outlook: The quarterly reporting season for banks continues next week, so the breather in issuance activity is likely to continue Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 5,000% Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG - /BBB+/- 0,500bn 05.02.2027 ms +215 bps  30.01.2023 1,750bn ms + 240 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Preferred issues week of 30 January 2023 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3,750% SEB A3 /A-/AA- 1,000bn 07.02.2028 ms +85 bps 30.01.2023 1,850bn ms + 110 area 3,750% Bayerische Landesbank A2 /-/A- 0,500bn 07.02.2029 ms +95 bps  31.01.2023 1,160bn ms + 120 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Non-preferred issues week of 30 January 2023 Issuer Date Issuer Date INTESA SANPAOLO 02/03 SVENSKA HANDELSBANKEN-A SHS 02/08 BNP PARIBAS 02/07 CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG-REG 02/09 BANCA M ONTE DEI PASCHI SIENA 02/07 KBC GROUP NV 02/09 BANCO BPM SPA 02/07 CREDIT AGRICOLE SA 02/09 OP CORPORATE BANK PLC 02/08 DNB BANK ASA 02/09 SPAREBANK 1 SR BANK ASA 02/08 SPAREBANKEN SOR 02/10 SOCIETE GENERALE SA 02/08 BPCE SA 02/10 ABN AM RO BANK NV-CVA 02/08 Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Reporting dates of selected banks „Credit spreads traded very constructively in January and were able to narrow again in the last trading week. The start of the reporting season at European banks brought very good figures, e.g. at Unicredit, UBS and BBVA, which further supported the positive market sentiment. Investor activity is currently at a very high level, allowing for good 2-way flows. The bonds issued in 2023 are of course outstanding in terms of turnover. This is where most of the real money flows are concentrated. ETF funds are also predominantly acting as buyers of the new issues. In general, the short end and the FRN segment in particular have picked up significantly over the last few weeks.” Comment from the Helaba trading floor BLS\*: Decline also in corporate loans? Change proportion of positive vs. negative values\*\*, in %. \*Bank Lending Survey \*\*Positive values are tightening/increasing, negative values are easing/decreasing Sources: ECB, Helaba Research & Advisory -50 -20 10 40 70 100 -50 -20 10 40 70 100 02/15 08/15 02/16 08/16 02/17 08/17 02/18 08/18 02/19 08/19 02/20 08/20 02/21 08/21 02/22 08/22 02/23 bank lending standards for enterprises corporate demand for loans expected for the next quarter Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 2 February 2023 5 of 8 Short news 1/31 Publication of Euro area bank lending survey: In the January 2023 bank lending survey (BLS), euro area banks reported a substantial further tightening of credit standards for loans or credit lines to enterprises in the fourth quarter of 2022. Risks related to the economic outlook, industry or firm- specific situation and banks’ risk tolerance continued to have a tightening impact on credit standards. Firms’ net demand for loans declined, corresponding to the recently observed moderation in loan flows to non-financial cor- porations. The decline in net demand was stronger than expected by banks in the previous quarter. Banks re- ported a strong net tightening of credit standards for housing loans and for consumer credit. The primary driver was higher risk perceptions and there was also a tightening contribution from the cost of funds and balance sheet constraints, and decreasing risk tolerance, alongside a slight tightening impact from competition for housing loans. 1/31 EBA launches 2023 EU-wide stress test: The European Banking Authority (EBA) launched the 2023 EU-wide stress test and released the macroeconomic scenarios. This year’s EU-wide stress test is designed to provide val- uable input for assessing the resilience of the European banking sector in the current uncertain and changing macroeconomic environment. The adverse scenario is based on a narrative of hypothetical heightened geopoliti- cal tensions, with high inflation and higher interest rates having strong adverse effects on private consumption and investments, both domestically and globally. The EBA expects to publish the results of the exercise at the end of July 2023. 1/30 Fitch Ratings: Covered Bond Ratings Well-Protected from Rising Interest Rates The rising interest-rate environment will exacerbate any interest-rate mismatches between assets and liabilities in unhedged covered bonds programmes, Fitch Ratings says. Programmes with more long-term fixed-rate assets and shorter-dated liabilities that will be refinanced sooner at higher rates will be most exposed. However, covered bonds programmes benefit from large over-collateralisation (OC) cushion and high issuer ratings, which underpin the neutral covered bonds sector outlook for 2023. 1/30 Spain’s windfall tax: Spain’s biggest banks will challenge the country’s controversial windfall tax after paying their first installment by February 20, according to people familiar with their plans heard by the Financial Times. The Spanish Banking Association has argued that if banks are forced to pay €3bn in taxes, it would reduce their lending capacity. 1/27 Bank lending shows lower growth: Growth in lending to companies in the euro area slowed significantly to- ward the end of the year in the face of higher key interest rates and concerns about the economy. In December, financial institutions in the currency area granted 6.3 % more loans to companies than a year ago, as the Euro- pean Central Bank announced in Frankfurt on Friday. In November, the growth had still been at 8.3 %, in October at 8.9 percent. (a.o. Handelsblatt) 1/27 ECB rejects banks' call for lower capital to boost lending: The European Central Bank (ECB) rejected calls from Europe's banks to ease capital rules to boost lending and put them on an equal footing with US rivals. As re- ported by Reuters, the ECB said it was open to discussing with the industry how supervisory processes can be fur- ther improved. 1/26 Sustainability reporting: The European Banking Authority (EBA) published an Opinion on the draft Euro- pean Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS) developed by the European Financial Reporting Advisory Group (EFRAG). The EBA acknowledges that the draft ESRS are consistent with international standards and relevant EU Regulation and welcomes the level of alignment with the Pillar 3 disclosure requirements reached at this stage. Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 2 February 2023 6 of 8 \* Closing prices from the previous day Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory, \* ASW-Spreads Market Data (current\*, vs. 1 week, vs. 4 weeks) E-STOXX 600 Banks 161 3,53% 8,11% iBoxx € Cov. Germany 6,5 0,1 1,3 iTraxx Senior Financial 86,9 -2,8 -6,3 10Yr-Yield 2,3 0,1 0,0 iBoxx € Cov. Bonds 19,7 -0,4 2,0 iBoxx € Supranational 19,1 0,32 3,90 Swap 10J 2,9 0,1 0,0 iBoxx € Banks PS 70,4 1,4 -12,4 iBoxx € Agencies 2,4 1,44 -0,35 iBoxx € Germany -46,0 3,6 0,1 iBoxx Banks NPS 100,8 -1,4 -24,9 iBoxx € Sub-Sov. Germany 12,0 -1,62 0,97 iBoxx € EU 25,6 1,1 4,5 iBoxx Banks Subordinated 166,9 -2,1 -27,3 iBoxx € Sub-Sovereign 27,3 -0,05 0,98 Leisure tip for the weekend: Rheinsberg with Rheinsberg Castle (Brandenburg) Do you have ideas for leisure tips? We would be happy to receive your suggestions at research@helaba.de. Source: https://www. rheinsberg.de Rheinsberg, with its Friderizian rococo castle, pretty town centre and sur- rounding water-rich landscape, is one of the most popular destinations in Brandenburg. In addition to its use as a museum, Rheinsberg Castle hosts special tours, lectures and concerts throughout the year. The castle on the water is a good starting point for other activities in the Ruppiner Land. Legendary among railway fans are the trips by the Berlin Railway Friends with historic steam locomotive trains from Berlin to Rheinsberg station, which combine railway romance with a visit to Rheinsberg. Further information: Rheinsberg Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 2 February 2023 7 of 8 Chartbook SSA, Covered Bonds, Senior Unsecured Senior Primary volumes Senior Unsecured: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 Senior Non-preferred 2023 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Non-preferred 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Feb.22 Apr.22 Jun.22 Aug.22 Okt.22 Dez.22 Feb.23 Banks Subordinated Banks Senior Bail-in Banks Senior Preferred Covered Primary volumes Covered Bonds: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 2022 2021 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Feb.22 Apr.22 Jun.22 Aug.22 Okt.22 Dez.22 Feb.23 EUR Covered Covered Germany SSA: Primary volumes SSA: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2022 2021 2023 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 Feb. 22 Apr. 22 Jun. 22 Aug. 22 Okt. 22 Dez. 22 Feb. 23 Sub-Sovereigns Agencies Supranationals Sub-Sovereigns Germany Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 2 February 2023 8 of 8 News from Research & Advisory  European banks: An optimistic outlook for 2023  Fokus on: Corporate Schuldschein: Burgeoning diversity creates new options for investors  Focus on: Primary Market update EUR Benchmark Bank Bonds Q4 2022  Focus on: Singaporean Covered Bonds - Top credit quality made in Asia  Credits: Corporate Schuldschein: Primary market 2022  Markets and Trends 2023  FOCUS ON CREDITS - BASEL III AND THE EU COUNCIL'S POSITION ON THE LEGISLATIVE PACKAGE  FOCUS ON: SUSTAINABLE FINANCE - THE RENDEZVOUS CLAUSE  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – BANK AND COVERED BOND PROFILES GERMANY  FOCUS ON: SSAS – GERMAN AGENCIES  FOCUS ON: COVERED BONDS – EUROPEAN COVERED BONDS: CENTRAL WEBSITE PROVIDES CLARITIY  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – LIVE DEALS – A USEFUL INDICATOR FOR PLANNING ISSUANCE  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – EUROPEAN BANKS: CLIMATE RISK STRESS TEST HIGHLIGHTS NEED FOR FURHTER ACTION  EUROPEAN BANKS: ACTIVITIES BECOMING EVER GREENER Team of authors Publisher and editorial office Helaba Research & Advisory Editor: Sabrina Miehs Corporate Research & Advisory Responsible: Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chefvolkswirtin/ Head of Research & Advisory Neue Mainzer Str. 52-58 60311 Frankfurt am Main T +49 69 / 91 32 – 20 24 Internet: www.helaba.com Disclaimer This publication has been prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains only non-binding analyses and forecasts of current and future market conditions. The information is based on sources which we consider to be reliable, but for whose accuracy, completeness or up-to-dateness we cannot assume any liability. All state- ments made in this publication are for information purposes only. They must not be understood as an offer or recommendation for investment de- cisions. Here you can subscribe to our newsletter: https://news.helaba.de/research/ Dr. Susanne Knips Senior Credit Analyst T 069/91 32-32 11 Sabrina Miehs, CESGA Head of FI & SSA Research Senior Advisor Sustainable Finance T 069/91 32-48 90 Christian Schmidt Covered Bond & SSA Analyst T 069/91 32-23 88

SSAs: Constructive market environment. Covered Bonds: Investors are still making decent purchases of newer paper on the secondary market. Senior Unsecured: Banks report record profits for 2022. Chart of the Week: Permanently rising house price indices are a thing of the past.