---
title: "SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update"
url: https://www.helaba.com/en/ssa-and-financials-weekly-market-update-12
type: dd_research
language: en
updated: 2026-09-28
keywords: Renten, Weekly Market Update_englisch
---

# SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update

Focus on: SSAs & Financials 23 February 2023 © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 23 February 2023 1 of 7 Research & Advisory Weekly Market Update Primary market environment: On the primary market, the SSA segment was clearly ahead in the past few days. The ifo business climate index rose for the fifth time in a row. In the US, some FOMC members are in favour of 50 bp interest rate step and risks to the financial system due to the debt ceiling have been pointed out. According to our risk trend indicator, investors have recently become much more cautious. In particular, they have been cautious about bank bonds following the rally of recent weeks.. Primary market barometer Primary market activity in the SSA segment dominated events in the current week. Most of the issues were significantly oversubscribed, so that the final spreads were narrowed compared to the marketing. The state of Bremen had a hard time crossing the finish line. At the beginning of the week, various issuers took advantage of the last chance to profit from an ECB partici- pation on the primary market. But even without this special factor, the order books were well filled. Issuing activity in this segment has cooled noticeably. The environment, which is dominated by interest rate fears, is having a negative impact, and investors are again demanding signifi- cantly higher spreads. After the al- ready extensive issuance YtD, issuers are not prepared to make concessions for the time being.. Covered Bonds Senior Unsecured SSAs Risk trend indicator: Risks are weighted higher again Relative\* ASW spread change \* ASW levels standardized and 2T-smoothed Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory IBOXX EURO 1 day 1 week 4 week 13 weeks 52 weeks 104 weeks Germany 0,00 0,16 0,06 1,05 1,09 -0,47 European Union -0,02 0,04 -0,10 0,99 2,67 2,95 Germany Covered 0,01 0,15 -0,04 0,52 1,02 1,01 EU Covered 0,00 0,04 -0,03 0,22 0,74 0,75 Banks senior preferred -0,04 0,17 -0,61 -1,00 0,94 1,09 Banks senior bail-in (SNP) -0,01 0,26 -0,70 -1,17 0,70 1,11 Banks subordinated 0,00 0,20 -0,41 -1,04 0,59 1,12 Supranational -0,01 0,05 -0,12 0,93 2,16 2,29 Agencies -0,01 0,04 -0,17 0,58 0,96 0,17 Sub-Sovereigns Germany -0,02 0,01 -0,28 0,32 -0,12 -0,19 Sub-Sovereigns -0,03 0,04 -0,32 0,46 0,86 0,76 strong middle weak unchanged weak middle strong spread widening spread tightening Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 23 February 2023 2 of 7 SSAs The SSA segment remains busy compared to previous weeks. The new issues met with very good de- mand. For example, the EUR 3 billion European Stability Mechanism (ESM) bond maturing in March 2028 generated an order book of EUR 13.6 billion and orders from 150 different counterparties. The final pricing was MS-10 bps, which is 3 bps tighter than the marketing. The issue volume was higher than usual in the past (EUR 2 billion), 38% of the planned total volume for the year has already been placed. The state of Brandenburg achieved 1.3 times oversubscription for its 9-year state treasury note (EUR 600 m, MS - 4) and was even able to expand the originally planned issue volume, although the pricing seemed somewhat expensive. The French Cades was very successful with its third bond issue this year. The 7-year social bond with a volume of EUR 4 billion at- tracted buying interest of more than EUR 9 billion and shows once again that securities to finance social projects are becoming increasingly popular (see our publication "Social and Sustainability Bonds: ICMA Principles - The freestyle element makes all the difference"). The final spread of the social bond was fixed at OAT + 31 and thus 3 bps below the original target. Overall, the market presents itself strong and receptive at the moment. The state of Bremen, however, struggled to fill the book today. Outlook: There are currently no reasons for a further decline in issuing activity, even though there are no new pro- jects in the pipeline so far. Covered Bonds As was to be expected, the momentum on the primary market for covered bonds eased somewhat this week. On balance, however, more was issued than could have been expected in view of a series of regional holidays in Germany. The ECB's possibly last chance to participate in the primary market probably played a role. Credit Agricole SFH and SEB started the week with a dual tranche. Both were close to the curve for covered bonds and the trend towards lower new issue premiums seems to continue. NN Bank offered a 4.25-year Green Covered, which was placed at MS +10, 4 bps below the initial target. Spain's Sabadell stood out with a EUR 4.25bn order book for its 3.5-year benchmark (EUR 1bn, MS+25). The spread tightening in the secondary market continued for the latter. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3,000% ESM Aaa /AAA/AAA 3,000bn 15.03.2028 ms -10 bps 20.02.2023 13,600bn ms - 7 area 3,000% Brandenburg Aaa /-/- 0,600bn 27.02.2032 ms -4 bps 21.02.2023 0,770bn ms - 3 area 3,125% CADES Aa2 /AA/- 4,000bn 01.03.2030 FRTR +31 bp  21.02.2023 25,600bn FRTR +34 area 3,125% Investitionsbank Berlin - /-/AAA 0,500bn 01.03.2033 ms +2 bps 22.02.2023 not disclosed ms + 2 area t.b.d. Bremen - /-/AAA 0,500bn 02.03.2033 t.b.d. 23.02.2023 t.b.a. ms - 1 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € SSAs issues week of 20 Febuary 2023 "The ECB was involved in the primary markets for the last time this week. It is therefore not surprising that the syndicates currently have their hands full trying to place projects with investors. The good news is that this continues to work smoothly. The order books were well filled and the final bid levels are several basis points below the initial guidance. Subsequently, the bonds are also performing very well due to follow-up purchases. It seems as if the fading primary market demand from the € central banks could be solidly compensated by private demand." Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 23 February 2023 3 of 7 After the withdrawal of the Eurosystem central banks from the covered bond primary market, their activi- ties will generate further demand on the secondary market. Overall, the secondary market remained friendly this week with a tendency towards tighter swap spreads. The focus continues to be on short and medium maturities, especially since the curve struc- ture has not changed. According to rating agency Fitch (see also our news- flash), the sector outlook for covered bonds from the Asia-Pacific region (APAC) is neutral and supported by issuer default ratings (IDR) with stable outlooks re- spectively a rating watch positive. Outlook: Primary market activity has slowed some- what recently and lower issuance volumes are to be expected in the coming days. However, this development is not surprising, especially since many transactions have already been brought forward in view of the ECB's change in strategy. Senior Unsecured The iTraxx Europe Senior Financial Index has widened by 4.8 bps since our last Weekly a week ago. Interest rate fears now seem to have gained the upper hand again over recession fears, and the markets are clearly more tense after the rally of recent weeks. In the senior unsecured segment, issuance activity has been very limited so far this week, with only BPCE and MPS showing up with transactions. BPCE S.A. issued a EUR 1 billion 7-year non-preferred benchmark bond on Tuesday. Demand was good, but inves- tors asked for a higher premium to the secondary curve of about 30 bps again after the partly heavily oversub- scribed issues of the previous weeks with low new issue premiums and good performance in the secondary mar- kets, whereupon the bond was able to gain nicely in secondary terms. Outlook: The quarterly reporting season for banks is now almost completed, which means that the blackout peri- ods are also over. In view of the extensive maturities in 2023 and regulatory requirements for total liable capital Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3,250% Credit Agricole Home Loan SFH Aaa /AAA/AAA 1,000bn 28.09.2026 ms +3 bps 20.02.2023 2,000bn ms + 8 area 3,250% Credit Agricole Home Loan SFH Aaa /AAA/AAA 1,000bn 28.09.2032 ms +29 bps 20.02.2023 1,800bn ms + 33 area 3,250% SEB Aaa /-/- 1,500bn 04.05.2029 ms +15 bps 20.02.2023 2,500bn ms + 19 area 3,250% Nationale-Nederlanden Bank N.V. - /AAA/- 0,750bn 28.05.2027 ms +10 bps  21.02.2023 2,000bn ms + 14 area 3,500% Banco de Sabadell SA Aa1 /-/- 1,000bn 28.08.2026 ms +25 bps 21.02.2023 4,250bn ms + 32 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Covered Bond issues week of 20 Febuary 2023 „Interest rate hike announcements from central bank representatives are heard every day. All this is not new, and yet the markets are gradually realizing the headwind from the future environment. Investor flows have cooled noticeably with the increasing uncertainty and at the same time have shifted somewhat to the money side. Real money is now looking for bids and taking profits from the rally so far. ETF Funds have clearly turned to sell. Fast Money is holding back noticeably compared to previous weeks.” Comment from the Helaba trading floor APAC-Spreads with temporary change of direction ASW | Iboxx Covereds Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Mrz22 Apr22 Jun22 Aug22 Okt22 Dez22 Feb23 Singapore Australia New Zealand Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 23 February 2023 4 of 7 (MREL/TLAC), institutions are still a long way from having implemented their issuance plans for the year as a whole. Currently, an initial wave of consolidation seems to be underway, but yields are at attractive levels in some cases and, with adequate spread concessions, new issues should continue to perform solidly. Chart of the week The major European banks reported strong profit growth in fiscal year 2022. The good results were driven in particular by rapidly rising net interest in- come in the fast-changing interest rate environment. Banks built up additional loan loss provisions due to the gloomy economic outlook, but problem loan ratios remained encouragingly stable despite their histori- cally low levels. In the inflationary environment, costs increased, but cost cutting programs continued and overall administrative expenses remained under con- trol. As a result of the payout freezes in place during the Corona pandemic, the banks have high equity ra- tios and have therefore been able to continue their share buyback programs. The increase in net interest income is expected to continue in 2023 and more than compensate for rising credit risk costs. (see our Credit publication "European Banks – An optimistic outlook for 2023" of Jan. 11, 2023) The only drasback is that current market prices for equities and bonds are already likely to largely reflect the good outlook. Short news 2/21 Sustainable Finance – NextGenerationEU: The European Commission (EC) has adopted a Com- munication marking the two-year anniversary of the creation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), the key instrument at the heart of the EUR 800 billion NextGenerationEU recovery plan for Europe. As the EC President, Ursula von der Leyen, affirmed, the recovery plan continues to be a central driver of the EU's green and digital transformation. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 6,750% Banca M onte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A B1 /-/B+ 0,750bn 02.03.2026 ms +321 bps 23.02.2023 1,500bn 7-7,125% area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Preferred issues week of 20 Febuary 2023 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 4,625% BPCE SA Baa1 /BBB+/A+ 1,000bn 02.03.2030 ms +160 bps 21.02.2023 2,300bn ms + 175/180 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Non-preferred issues week of 20 Febuary 2023 Issuer Date Issuer Date ERSTE GROUP BANK AG 2/28 BANK OF IRELAND GROUP PLC 3/7 AAREAL BANK AG 3/2 DEUTSCHE PFANDBRIEFBANK AG 3/8 Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Reporting dates of selected banks Quarterly results: Interest rate hike as main driver bn .EUR % \* Selection of European banks (Banco Santander, BBVA, Commerzbank, Deut-sche Bank, ING Group, Nordea, Unicredit, SEB, Swedbank) Quellen: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21 Q1/22 Q2/22 Q3/22 Q4/23 Net profit\* (lhs) Return on Equity\* (rhs) Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 23 February 2023 5 of 7 2/21 Deposit guarantee schemes: The European Banking Authority (EBA) published its final revised Guidelines on deposit guarantee schemes (DGS) contributions. The revised Guidelines further strengthen the link between the riskiness of a credit institution and how much it needs to contribute to the DGS funds that will be used to reim- burse depositors in case their bank fails in the interest of financial stability. 2/21 Fitch Ratings: Canadian Covered Bonds Going Strong Despite Falling Home Prices and Inflation Canadian covered bond ratings have shown resilience in 2022 despite falling home prices, inflation, and rising interest rates, according to Fitch Ratings. All eight Fitch-rated programs have maintained their initially assigned ratings and continue to have Stable Rating Outlooks. All but one have ‘AAA’ ratings. 2/20 ECBC Global Concept Note on Third Country Equivalence for Covered Bonds The implementation of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s (BCBS) framework, together with a common legislative Directive on Covered Bonds in the 30 countries of the European Economic Area (EEA), is radically revo- lutionising the Capital Markets Infrastructure of the Old Continent, providing new common crisis management tools for policy makers and market participants, and an efficient financial asset to support the real economy whilst facilitating the transition to a greener world. 2/20 EU and Banking Union Law: The Single Resolution Board (SRB) will hold its second legal conference on Thursday, 27 April 2023. The virtual conference will be organised around a number of expert panels made up of senior legal practitioners in the field, distinguished judges and globally eminent academics. A range of topical le- gal issues pertinent to both EU and Banking Union law will be discussed. 2/17 Fitch Ratings – Neutral Outlook for APAC Covered Bonds: Asia-Pacific (APAC) covered bonds have a neutral sector outlook, supported by the Stable Outlook or Rating Watch Positive – depending on the individual credit – on each issuing bank’s Issuer Default Rating (IDR). Other factors leading to the neutral sector outlook include sub- stantial nominal overcollateralisation (OC) and at least a two-notch cushion against an IDR downgrade before the covered bonds’ ‘AAA’ ratings would be downgraded, says Fitch Ratings. \* Closing prices from the previous day Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory, \* ASW-Spreads Market Data (current\*, vs. 1 week, vs. 4 weeks) E-STOXX 600 Banks 163 0,46% 5,37% iBoxx € Cov. Germany 6,7 0,9 -0,8 iTraxx Senior Financial 84,9 0,3 -1,8 10Yr-Yield 2,5 0,1 0,5 iBoxx € Cov. Bonds 19,6 0,6 -1,2 iBoxx € Supranational 18,5 0,37 -1,67 Swap 10J 3,0 0,1 0,4 iBoxx € Banks PS 65,2 1,7 -13,7 iBoxx € Agencies 1,5 -0,23 -1,85 iBoxx € Germany -42,9 0,7 2,0 iBoxx Banks NPS 97,1 6,0 -19,5 iBoxx € Sub-Sov. Germany 10,4 -0,06 -5,02 iBoxx € EU 24,8 0,3 -1,6 iBoxx Banks Subordinated 163,3 8,2 -17,9 iBoxx € Sub-Sovereign 26,4 0,12 -3,88 Leisure tip for the weekend: Bauhaus-Museum in Weimar Do you have ideas for leisure tips? We would be happy to receive your suggestions at research@helaba.de. Source: https://www.klassik-stiftung.de/en/bauhaus-museum-weimar/ On the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the State Bauhaus in Weimar, the new Bauhaus Museum Weimar opened in April 2019, showcasing the treasures of the world’s oldest Bauhaus collection. The exhibition centres around the key issues, ideas and design proposals of the Bauhaus and its significance in our life today. Based on the question “How do we want to live together?”, the exhibition highlights key issues which are just as relevant today as they were in the Bauhaus era. Further information: Bauhaus-Museum Weimar Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 23 February 2023 6 of 7 Chartbook SSAs, Covered Bonds, Senior Unsecured Senior Primary volumes Senior Unsecured: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 Senior Non-preferred 2023 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Non-preferred 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Feb.22 Apr.22 Jun.22 Aug.22 Okt.22 Dez.22 Feb.23 Banks Subordinated Banks Senior Bail-in Banks Senior Preferred Covered Primary volumes Covered Bonds: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 2022 2021 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Feb.22 Apr.22 Jun.22 Aug.22 Okt.22 Dez.22 Feb.23 EUR Covered Covered Germany SSAs: Primary volumes SSAs: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2022 2021 2023 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 Feb. 22 Apr. 22 Jun. 22 Aug. 22 Okt. 22 Dez. 22 Feb. 23 Sub-Sovereigns Agencies Supranationals Sub-Sovereigns Germany Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 23 February 2023 7 of 7 News from Research & Advisory  Focus on Credits: Social and sustainability bonds: ICMA Principles - the freestyle element makes all the difference  European banks: An optimistic outlook for 2023  Focus on: Corporate Schuldschein: Burgeoning diversity creates new options for investors  Focus on: Primary Market update EUR Benchmark Bank Bonds Q4 2022  Focus on: Singaporean Covered Bonds - Top credit quality made in Asia  Credits: Corporate Schuldschein: Primary market 2022  Markets and Trends 2023  FOCUS ON CREDITS - BASEL III AND THE EU COUNCIL'S POSITION ON THE LEGISLATIVE PACKAGE  FOCUS ON: SUSTAINABLE FINANCE - THE RENDEZVOUS CLAUSE  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – BANK AND COVERED BOND PROFILES GERMANY  FOCUS ON: SSAS – GERMAN AGENCIES  FOCUS ON: COVERED BONDS – EUROPEAN COVERED BONDS: CENTRAL WEBSITE PROVIDES CLARITIY  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – LIVE DEALS – A USEFUL INDICATOR FOR PLANNING ISSUANCE  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – EUROPEAN BANKS: CLIMATE RISK STRESS TEST HIGHLIGHTS NEED FOR FURHTER ACTION Team of authors Publisher and editorial office Helaba Research & Advisory Editor: Stefan Rausch Corporate Research & Advisory Responsible: Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chefvolkswirtin/ Head of Research & Advisory Neue Mainzer Str. 52-58 60311 Frankfurt am Main T +49 69 / 91 32 – 20 24 Internet: www.helaba.com Disclaimer This publication has been prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains only non-binding analyses and forecasts of current and future market conditions. The information is based on sources which we consider to be reliable, but for whose accuracy, completeness or up-to-dateness we cannot assume any liability. All state- ments made in this publication are for information purposes only. They must not be understood as an offer or recommendation for investment de- cisions. Here you can subscribe to our newsletter: https://news.helaba.de/research/ Dr. Susanne Knips Senior Credit Analyst T 069/91 32-32 11 Sabrina Miehs, CESGA Head of FI & SSA Research Senior Advisor Sustainable Finance T 069/91 32-48 90 Christian Schmidt Covered Bond & SSA Analyst T 069/91 32-23 88

SSA: High absorption capacity. Covered Bonds: Order books very well filled. Senior Unsecured: Primary market remains open at elevated spread levels. Chart of the Week: Banks' quarterly results - rising net interest income largely priced in.