---
title: "SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update"
url: https://www.helaba.com/en/ssa-and-financials-weekly-market-update-9
type: dd_research
language: en
updated: 2026-09-28
keywords: Renten, Weekly Market Update_englisch
---

# SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update

Focus on: SSAs & Financials 16 March 2023 © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 16 March 2023 1 of 7 Research & Advisory Weekly Market Update Primary market environment: The collapse of SVB Bank and the closure of Signature Bank by US regulators increased risk aversion and concerns about further bank failures made the rounds in the financial markets. Today's ECB rate decision, however, was as expected with a 50 basis point hike. For some time now, our risk trend indicator has been signalling increasing risks. In the wake of recent market de- velopments, the lights have now turned red. Primary market barometer The recent market turmoil caused caution, both among issuers and in- vestors. Nevertheless, 3 primary mar- ket transactions, 2 of which were taps, were carried out. It is rare that there are no primary market transactions in a week out- side the summer and winter break. Currently, however, the volatilities were far too high even in this seg- ment to be able to carry out a serious placement. The senior unsecured segment is in particular focus in view of the banking crisis. The primary market came to a complete standstill. Spreads widened, in some cases very significantly. At Credit Suisse, risk premiums widened extremely for well-known reasons. Covered Bonds Senior Unsecured SSAs Risk trend indicator: Traffic lights jump to red - Bunds in strong demand Relative\* ASW spread change \* ASW levels standardized and 2T-smoothed Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory IB OXX EUR O 1 day 1 week 4 week 13 weeks 52 weeks 104 weeks Germany -0,12 -0,95 -0,82 -0,35 1,09 -1,30 European Union 0,04 0,08 0,07 0,53 2,71 2,81 Germany Covered 0,23 0,09 0,10 0,28 0,96 1,21 EU Covered 0,08 0,06 0,05 0,15 0,75 0,89 Banks senior preferred 0,35 0,75 0,99 0,71 1,23 2,04 Banks senior bail-in (SNP) 0,27 0,91 1,21 0,67 1,35 2,10 Banks subordinated 0,18 0,68 0,94 0,49 0,99 1,99 Supranational 0,08 0,10 0,10 0,53 2,40 2,33 Agencies 0,05 -0,30 -0,21 -0,14 1,10 0,06 Sub-Sovereigns Germany 0,09 0,10 0,02 0,04 -0,01 -0,19 Sub-Sovereigns 0,10 0,07 0,11 0,24 1,07 0,92 strong middle weak unchanged weak middle strong spread widening spread tightening Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 16 March 2023 2 of 7 SSAs The troubled SVB triggered a series of chain reactions and caused caution among market partici- pants. The increasing risk aversion was impressively demonstrated, for example, by sharp price swings in the Bund Future. On Monday, the future climbed by around two percent, a relatively rare occurrence. On Tuesday, KfW was the only one to venture onto the primary market with a tap of its bond (EUR 1 billion, WNG), which runs until 2025. As this transaction was only accompanied by one bank, we do not know the order book size. In the end, pricing was fixed at MS-41, slightly below the first spread indication. On Wednesday, the state of Lower Saxony followed with a tap of the 2031 bond (EUR 500m, WNG, MS-2) and the state of Brandenburg with a bench- mark issue. Outlook: The EU has sent out RfPs (Request for Proposals) for an issue expected next week. Other issuers, possi- bly other federal states, could subsequently appear on the market, especially as the issuance window is narrowing in view of the upcoming Fed meeting and the approaching quarterly end. Covered Bonds The covered bond segment could not escape the risk aversion that arose in the course of the banking crisis. A sharp decline in market liquidity was the consequence, while spreads were were hardly af- fected at first, but ultimately widened slightly against swaps. Even the recently favoured short-dated bonds showed a marked reluctance to buy. The secondary buying programmes helped to calm the situation moderately. However, it is still to be feared that some pressure will be generated on the part of the market makers: It cannot be ruled out that stocks will be offered "on the street" to improve the books, but that they will not be taken up. Overall, liquidity decreased as measured by the widening bid-offer spreads. In the primary market, market partici- pants did not lean out of the window in the run-up to the ECB interest rate decision and the subsequent state- ment. In our opinion, little or nothing can be expected to set new price points on this "playing field" at the mo- ment, as there are simply not enough investors to make a new commitment in markets characterised by high vola- tility. Moreover, the end of the quarter is already within striking distance. market participants have turned away. For cash valuations, the last few days have seen spread losses of 2-3 bps for core names and 4-6 bps for non-core securities. This development was largely due to some cash selling and poor market liquidity. Outlook: Primary market activity in the covered bond segment also depends crucially on the framework condi- tions. As long as volatility remains high, issuers are likely to hold back. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 6m€+0 Bp Brandenburg Aaa /-/- 0,500bn 21.03.2028 not disclosed 14.03.2023 not disclosed not disclosed 2,500% KFW Aaa /AAA/AAA 1,000bn  19.11.2025 ms -41 bps 14.03.2023 not disclosed ms -41,3 Bp 2,750% Niedersachsen - /-/AAA 0,500bn  17.02.2031 ms -2 bps 15.03.2023 0,825bn ms - 2 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € SSAs issues week of 13 March 2023 "The shock waves currently running through the market (multisigma moves in short rates, Treasury yields, Bund/swap spreads) are undoubtedly at record levels historically. In view of the alarm signals triggered in the US banking sector, quite a few market participants are asking themselves whether and how the central banks will react to this, especially with regard to the interest rate path/terminal rate. Doubts about certainties be- lieved to be safe are probably in order and, on sober reflection, the big picture will ultimately not change. However, one thing has been clear since the last few days: cash turnover is sharply declining!" Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 16 March 2023 3 of 7 Chart of the week The risk aversion currently pre- vailing on the markets is also re- flected in the development of the 10-year Bund swap spread. It widened dynamically in a short time from around 54 to a peak of 82. The last time there was an almost comparable in- crease was in September 2022. On Tuesday, the 3-month Euri- bor initially fell by more than 20 bps, the most since September 2001. This revealed a clear decline in bets on further interest rate hikes by the ECB. Senior Unsecured The start of the week was accompanied by further spreads (see also our charts on page 6) in the cash and iTraxx indices. Real money, fast money and ETFs were active across all issuers, jurisdictions and liability tiers on the issuer side. Events surrounding the troubled Silicon Valley Bank - the largest collapse since the 2008 global financial crisis - and the regulatory shutdown of New York-based Signature Bank heightened con- cerns about further bank failures. Others, such as First Republic Bank, Western Alliance Bancorp, and PacWest Bancorp, were under heavy pressure in the stock market. This shows that the market is already on the lookout for more badly positioned institutions. Last weekend, the US authorities activated backstops for banks, which, ac- cording to Fed officials, are large enough to protect the deposits of the entire country. The Bank Term Funding programme allows banks to monetise their loss-making hold-to-maturity portfolio without realising losses. The programme enables funding at the face value of the pledged securities. Easing of lending through the discount window (main direct lending facility) and continued access to financing through the Federal Home Loan Bank also provided some reassurance to the significantly depressed sentiment. Overall, the measures are aimed at avoiding a run on the banks that would increase the risk of a recession. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication none Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Covered Bond issues week of 13 March 2023 „Credit spreads have widened very significantly on a weekly basis on iTraxx indices and the cash market. After a brief tightening trend from the highs during Tuesday and Wednesday morning, widening mode has pre- vailed again since the escalation around Credit Suisse and volatility should remain high with central bank meetings and further uncertainties in the near future."ast " Comment from the Helaba trading floor 10YR Bund swap spread with significant widening ASW \*As of 16.03.23, 9:30h Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 16 March 2023 4 of 7 Primary market activity in the senior unsecured segment - unsurprisingly - came to a complete standstill this week in light of recent developments. Outlook: There is no fundamental improvement in sight, especially as Credit Suisse (CS) fuelled worries about pos- sible contagion in the banking sector through "significant deficiencies" in reporting, statements by investor Saudi National Bank and the subsequent slide in share prices. Credit Suisse's senior unsecured spreads widened mas- sively. In the meantime, it became known that Credit Suisse would receive liquidity assistance from the SNB of up to CHF 50 billion, which caused a moderate calming on the markets. On the primary market, we believe that the spreads of new bonds will widen when the situation calms down again and new issue premiums are higher. Short news 03/15 (Bloomberg) ESG ETFs Used by Central Bank of Denmark to Cut CO2 Footprint. Denmark’s central bank said it’s shifted investments to cut the carbon footprint of its foreign-currency reserves, as it looks for ways to build a climate strategy. In its first-ever emissions disclosure, the central bank said it ad- justed its government bond holdings to halve the portfolio’s absolute financed emissions in 2022, according to a statement on Wednesday. The bank also shifted some investments into exchange-traded funds that follow benchmarks complying with European Union requirements for Paris-aligned indexes, which it says cut emissions tied to equity and corporate bonds by more than 70%. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication none Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Preferred issues week of 13 March 2023 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication none Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Non-preferred issues week of 13 March 2023 STOXX 600 Banks clearly on a downward trend US-KWB Banking Index plunges Priceindex Indexpoints \*As of 16.03.23, 10h Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory \*As of Closing price on 15.03.23 Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 16.09.2022 16.11.2022 16.01.2023 16.03.2023 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 16 March 2023 5 of 7 3/13 Declining real estate lending business at Pfandbrief banks: In its press release, the vdp reports declining real estate lending business. In 2022 as a whole, the vdp member institutions recorded new business of EUR 158 billion, 11% less than the previous year. The trend was mixed: although it achieved a record volume of EUR 49.0 billion in the first quarter of 2022 (some borrowing having been brought forward due to expectations of higher interest rates) and even grew in the second quarter compared to the prior-year period, loan commitments de- clined significantly in the second half of the year with double-digit rates. The restraint shown by market players, in particular private borrowers, is a consequence of high inflation. For the current year, the vdp expects loan demand to continue to be restrained. 3/13 The European Supervisory Authorities (ESAs), together with the European Central Bank (ECB), today pub- lished a Joint Statement on climate-related disclosure for structured finance products. The Statement encour- ages the development of disclosure standards for securitised assets through harmonised climate-related data re- quirements. Currently, there is a lack of climate-related data on the assets underlying structured finance products. This poses an obstacle for the classification of products and services under the EU Taxonomy Regulation and Sus- tainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) and hinders the proper assessment and management of climate- related risks. The Statement sets out the joint efforts of the ECB and the ESAs to facilitate access to climate-related data with a view to improving sustainability-related transparency in securitisations and to promoting consistent and harmonised requirements for similar instruments. \* Closing prices from the previous day Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory, \* ASW-Spreads Marktdaten (aktuell\*, ggü. 1 Woche, ggü. 4 Wochen) E-STOXX 600 Banken 143 -14,64% -12,26% iBoxx € Cov. Germany 6,4 -1,1 -0,3 iTraxx Senior Financial 131,5 46,6 46,9 10J-Rendite 2,12 -0,53 -0,36 iBoxx € Cov. Bonds 19,7 -0,5 0,1 iBoxx € Supranational 19,2 -0,02 0,67 Swap 10J 2,93 -0,27 -0,09 iBoxx € Banks PS 90,6 18,9 25,4 iBoxx € Agencies -3,7 -6,83 -5,18 iBoxx € Germany -62,86 -21,78 -19,98 iBoxx Banks NPS 139,5 32,1 42,4 iBoxx € Sub-Sov. Germany 10,8 0,50 0,39 iBoxx € EU 25,25 -0,21 0,48 iBoxx Banks Subordinated 212,3 35,4 49,0 iBoxx € Sub-Sovereign 27,2 -0,50 0,87 Leisure tip for the weekend: Opel Zoo in Kronberg Do you have ideas for leisure tips? We would be happy to receive your suggestions at research@helaba.de. Source: https://www.opel-zoo.de The Opel Zoo is located amidst the scenic slopes of the Vordertaunus be- tween Kronberg and Königstein. In a unique way, it presents around 1700 animals from over 200 species mainly from Africa, Asia and Europe. These include the only elephants in Hesse, giraffes, zebras, earth males, red pan- das, cheetahs, kangaroos, spectacled penguins and many more. You can get very close to the animals and some species, such as elephants, can also be fed with carrots. There is also the opportunity for children to take part in pony rides or even camel rides! Further information: Opel Zoo Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 16 March 2023 6 of 7 Chartbook SSAs, Covered Bonds, Senior Unsecured Senior Primary volumes Senior Unsecured: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 Senior Non-preferred 2023 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Non-preferred 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Mrz.22 Mai.22 Jul.22 Sep.22 Nov.22 Jan.23 Mrz.23 Banks Subordinated Banks Senior Bail-in Banks Senior Preferred Covered Primary volumes Covered Bonds: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 2022 2021 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Mrz.22 Mai.22 Jul.22 Sep.22 Nov.22 Jan.23 Mrz.23 EUR Covered Covered Germany SSAs: Primary volumes SSAs: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2022 2021 2023 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 Mrz. 22 Mai. 22 Jul. 22 Sep. 22 Nov. 22 Jan. 23 Mrz. 23 Sub-Sovereigns Agencies Supranational Sub-Sovereigns Germany Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 16 March 2023 7 of 7 News from Research & Advisory  Focus on Credits: Social and sustainability bonds: ICMA Principles - the freestyle element makes all the difference  European banks: An optimistic outlook for 2023  Focus on: Corporate Schuldschein: Burgeoning diversity creates new options for investors  Focus on: Primary Market update EUR Benchmark Bank Bonds Q4 2022  Focus on: Singaporean Covered Bonds - Top credit quality made in Asia  Credits: Corporate Schuldschein: Primary market 2022  Markets and Trends 2023  FOCUS ON CREDITS - BASEL III AND THE EU COUNCIL'S POSITION ON THE LEGISLATIVE PACKAGE  FOCUS ON: SUSTAINABLE FINANCE - THE RENDEZVOUS CLAUSE  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – BANK AND COVERED BOND PROFILES GERMANY  FOCUS ON: SSAS – GERMAN AGENCIES  FOCUS ON: COVERED BONDS – EUROPEAN COVERED BONDS: CENTRAL WEBSITE PROVIDES CLARITIY Team of authors Publisher and editorial office Helaba Research & Advisory Editor: Sabrina Miehs Corporate Research & Advisory Responsible: Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chefvolkswirtin/ Head of Research & Advisory Neue Mainzer Str. 52-58 60311 Frankfurt am Main T +49 69 / 91 32 – 20 24 Internet: www.helaba.com Disclaimer This publication has been prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains only non-binding analyses and forecasts of current and future market conditions. The information is based on sources which we consider to be reliable, but for whose accuracy, completeness or up-to-dateness we cannot assume any liability. All state- ments made in this publication are for information purposes only. They must not be understood as an offer or recommendation for investment de- cisions. Here you can subscribe to our newsletter: https://news.helaba.de/research/ Dr. Susanne Knips Senior Credit Analyst T 069/91 32-32 11 Sabrina Miehs, CESGA Head of FI & SSA Research Senior Advisor Sustainable Finance T 069/91 32-48 90 Christian Schmidt Covered Bond & SSA Analyst T 069/91 32-23 88

SSAs: Recent market turmoil caused caution. Covered Bonds: Sharp decline in market liquidity. Senior Unsecured: Concerns about further bank failures. Chart of the Week: 10YR Bund Swap Spread Widened Significantly.