---
title: "SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update"
url: https://www.helaba.com/en/ssa-and-financials-weekly-market-update-8
type: dd_research
language: en
updated: 2026-09-28
keywords: Renten, Weekly Market Update_englisch
---

# SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update

Focus on: SSAs & Financials 23 March 2023 © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 23 March 2023 1 of 8 Research & Advisory Weekly Market Update Primary market environment: After the forced marriage of UBS and Credit Suisse, volatility re- mains high and is once again causing slackness on the primary markets. The gold price benefits from the prevailing uncertainty and climbs to a new record high on a euro basis. The Fed raised the key interest rate by 25 bps for the ninth time in a row. The market turbulence is also reflected in our risk trend indicator. Last week, the lights jumped to red and sustain- able signs of easing have so far been absent. Primary market barometer Overall, issuers continued to hold back with issues. However, the few new placements gave positive sig- nals that a revival of private market activities can be expected soon. For the second week in a row, no new issues were recorded in the covered bond segment. Obviously, market participants are waiting for more fa- vourable conditions. Signals for a brightening of sentiment are present, so that in our opinion the market opening by a Tier 1 issuer could take place soon. In our opinion, it is still too early for senior unsecured issues, especially since the widening of spreads in the secondary market is far from being "made up". Overall, however, the issu- ing pressure should be significantly higher compared to the covered bond segment. Covered Bonds Senior Unsecured SSAs Risk trend indicator: It is too early to give the all-clear Relative\* ASW spread change \* ASW levels standardized and 2T-smoothed Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory IBOXX EURO 1 day 1 week 4 week 13 weeks 52 weeks 104 weeks Germany 0,23 0,25 -0,51 -0,22 0,87 -0,84 European Union 0,04 -0,03 0,02 0,62 2,55 2,77 Germany Covered 0,07 -0,04 0,05 0,38 0,89 1,18 EU Covered 0,02 0,00 0,05 0,20 0,74 0,90 Banks senior preferred -0,48 0,17 1,05 0,97 1,50 2,27 Banks senior bail-in (SNP) -0,62 -0,18 0,82 0,57 1,26 2,01 Banks subordinated -0,72 0,27 0,96 0,80 1,55 2,31 Supranational 0,04 -0,04 0,04 0,62 2,31 2,28 Agencies 0,16 0,01 -0,18 -0,10 0,88 0,13 Sub-Sovereigns Germany 0,01 -0,04 0,03 0,13 -0,01 -0,30 Sub-Sovereigns 0,03 0,00 0,10 0,43 1,07 0,89 strong middle weak unchanged weak middle strong spread widening spread tightening Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 23 March 2023 2 of 8 SSAs The general conditions, which were characterised by uncertainty and risk aversion, caused restraint on the primary market. The EU auctioned 4.5 and 9.3-year maturities. Based on a bid-to-cover ratio comparison, the auction was similarly successful as in the past. The Free State of Saxony also ventured onto the stage with the issue of a EUR 500 million benchmark maturing in 2028. The bond was placed at MS-9 and thus unchanged compared to the marketing. Given the current market environment, the deal went quite well. The German share of subscriptions is likely to have been relatively high. Experience shows that German development banks play an important role. Even if the "issuance train" has slowed down noticea- bly in the meantime, this year's issuance volume is quite respectable compared to previous years, as the chart shows. Outlook: The EU has sent out RfPs (Request for Pro- posals) for a benchmark issue expected next week. Af- ter the recent shorter-dated bonds, there is much to suggest that an issue at the long end is to be expected. To what extent other issuers will also show up remains to be seen. Covered Bonds Banks had to be rescued on two consecutive Sundays, which on the one hand led to an overall in- crease in risk aversion and on the other hand to another lack of primary market transactions this week. Compared to unsecured bonds, covered bonds once again performed very respectably. In view of the turbu- lence surrounding Credit Suisse, this only applies to a very limited extent to its covered bonds. In the case of the 750 EUR benchmark covered issued last December and maturing in 2025, the spread against swap widened to around 120 bps and thus at times by 60 bps. In the meantime, however, the picture has brightened noticeably (+75 bps). Overall, the effects for covereds in the secondary market with regard to the absolute swap spread move- ments were neither in one direction nor in the other as erratic as was the case with other asset classes. In this re- spect, the widening was noticeable but less dramatic and, accordingly, the spreads did not tighten more strongly in the calming phase. Overall, market liquidity has increased again, with the focus remaining on short maturities. In our opinion, there can be no talk of a return to normality yet. In particular, the further development of interest rates and the crisis management in the banking sector are likely to play a major role. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 2,000% EU Aaa /AA+/AAA 1,850bn  04.10.2027 Auction 20.03.2023 3,542bn Auction 1,000% EU Aaa /AA+/AAA 1,765bn  06.07.2032 Auction 30.01.2023 4,000bn Auction 2,875% Sachsen - /AAA/- 0,500bn 29.03.2028 ms -9 bps 21.03.2023 0,500bn ms - 9 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € SSAs issues week of 20 March 2023 SSA Issuance volume\* exceeds previous years Volume of the first 12 weeks of the respective year, EUR billion Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 71,5 113 97 132,8 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2020 2021 2022 2023 Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 23 March 2023 3 of 8 Outlook: There is much to be said for a resumption of primary market activity in the coming week. A number of issuers, especially from Germany, France, the Netherlands and outside the Eurozone, are likely to be waiting in the wings. It will be exciting to see who dares to step forward first and initiate the market opening. Furthermore, the development of the US regional banks (more on this below) is likely to play a role and influence overall market sen- timent. Chart of the week As mentioned above, US banks also remain in focus. The adja- cent market-based indicator shows the stress in the banking system. The gap between the three-month US forward rate agreement (FRA) and the three- month overnight index swap rate widened dynamically re- cently and climbed to its high- est level in more than three months on Monday. This devel- opment was caused by various regional banks in turmoil, above all Silicon Valley Bank. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication none Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Covered Bond issues week of 20 March 2023 "The strong efforts to prevent a banking crisis a la Lehman have brought relief to the overall market over the course of the week. In addition to the central banks as the "first line of defence", it is noticeable this time that the government went to great lengths to avert the disaster (guarantees from the Swiss government for the merger of Credit Suisse and UBS, government-guaranteed deposit insurance in the USA, possibly also over the $250k threshold in the future). The risk-on mode observed in the aftermath primarily affected the credit markets (cash and indices) and equities. The yield curves for EGBs also made a 180° turn (Treasury yields +50 bps since the beginning of the week), the same applies to a calming of the Bund/swap spreads.” Comment from the Helaba trading floor USD FRA OIS (Overnight Index Swap) 3M - Upward trend continues Bp. \*Closing price as of 22.03.23 Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 19.09.2022 19.11.2022 19.01.2023 19.03.2023 Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 23 March 2023 4 of 8 Senior Unsecured For the second weekend in a row, there was a bang for the buck. Following the turmoil on the US banking market, an extraordinary government-initiated takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS was sealed on Sunday. The purchase price is CHF 3 billion - the takeover was backed by extensive guarantees from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Swiss government. The SNB has granted extraordinary funds of an additional CHF 200 billion, the Confederation is guaranteeing risks amounting to CHF 9 billion. The AT1 bonds of Credit Suisse (CS) with a volume of CHF 16 billion are written down (bail in) and the amount is added to the equity of CS. This meas- ure caused disagreement, as the Swiss bail-in regime initially provides for a default on the shares, but in this case there seems to be an exception: the merger deal negotiated by the government stipulates that Credit Suisse shareholders will receive one UBS share for every 22.48 CS shares. Not surprisingly, AT1 investors are considering legal action against this (Swiss) measure.Some market participants fear that the future of the entire USD 275 bil- lion contingent convertible bond (CoCo) market could be significantly affected by the AT1 approach. A reassessment of UBS Group risks was not absent after the high-speed takeover. On Monday, the one-year CDS (credit default swaps) rose by 16 bps to 114 bps. The postponed repurchase plans and an expected long restruc- turing phase caused uncertainty among UBS shareholders in this phase. The rating agencies also reacted. Moody's and Standard & Poor's lowered their rating outlook for UBS liabilities. The market turbulences by no means left the treasury unaffected and so there was a double-digit widening across all ranks in a weekly comparison. Preferreds widened by an average of 30 bps, although the spreads of Scandina- vian and German banks widened more significantly, making them "underperformers". The periphery held up com- paratively well, with risk premiums rising by 14-18 bps. The picture was similar one tier lower. The spreads of the non-preferreds also widened by an average of 30 bps in a weekly comparison. However, the widening of German financials was even more pronounced at 95 bps on a weekly basis. US banks continue to be in the focus of attention. Not least after the rating agency Moody's lowered the entire US banking sector from "stable" to "negative". In the wake of the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), private eq- uity firms such as Blackstone Inc, KKR & Co. Inc, Apollo Global Management Inc, The Carlyle Group Inc and Ares Management Corp are interested in taking over SVB's loan portfolio of USD 74 billion. Regional banks play a signif- icant role in the US, for example, they originate about 80% of commercial real estate loans. Outlook: The effects emanating from the Credit Suisse bankruptcy, in particular its significance for banks with re- gard to Tier1 refinancing, continue to play a role. „An eventful week lies behind us. Just when the markets had halfway digested the shock condemned by the US regional banks, the Saudi National Bank (SNB) dropped the next bombshell with its announcement that it would not provide any further funds to Credit Suisse. The result was a massive sell-off in the banking sector. Only in the wake of the state-supported takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS did some calm return to the markets." Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 23 March 2023 5 of 8 Short news 03/22 Fitch Ratings: UK Covered Bonds Well Protected Against Weaker Economic Outlook. Fitch- rated UK covered bonds are well-protected from potential cover pool credit deterioration stemming from the UK’s weaker macroeconomic outlook. The first protection is the high credit quality of issuing bank and building societies, with Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) ranging from ‘A-’ to ‘AA-’. All have rating headroom, with sound capital and liquidity buffers built up over recent years which should cushion the impact of consumer afford- ability pressures and asset quality deterioration. Issuer creditworthiness, combined with an average nine notches of uplifts, translates to a buffer against IDR downgrade of between three and six notches for the ‘AAA’ covered bond ratings. 03/21 (BZ) CoCo Bonds- ECB supervisor Enria rules out Swiss variant. In the dramatic bank bailout in Switzer- land, bond investors of Credit Suisse have been left empty-handed, unlike shareholders. Europe's top banking su- pervisor rules out disadvantaging bondholders should it become necessary to merge banks in an emergency, as was the case in Switzerland. "We have made it clear that this approach would not be feasible under the European rulebook" said Andrea Enria, ECB director in the EU parliament. Enria considers a bank collapse in the EU unlikely. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication none Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Preferred issues week of 20 March 2023 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication none Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Non-preferred issues week of 20 March 2023 STOXX 600 Banks - Consolidation or more? S&P 500 US Regional Banks - 34 % loss YTD Priceindex Indexpoints \*As of 23.03.23, 9:30h Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory \*Closing price as of 22.03.23 Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 13.09.2022 13.12.2022 13.03.2023 60 80 100 120 140 60 80 100 120 140 20.09.2022 20.12.2022 20.03.2023 Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 23 March 2023 6 of 8 03/20 SRB, EBA and ECB Banking Supervision statement on the announcement on 19 March 2023 by Swiss au- thorities. The Single Resolution Board, the European Banking Authority and ECB Banking Supervision welcome the comprehensive set of actions taken yesterday by the Swiss authorities in order to ensure financial stability. The European banking sector is resilient, with robust levels of capital and liquidity. The resolution framework im- plementing in the European Union the reforms recommended by the Financial Stability Board after the Great Fi- nancial Crisis has established, among others, the order according to which shareholders and creditors of a trou- bled bank should bear losses. In particular, common equity instruments are the first ones to absorb losses, and only after their full use would Additional Tier One be required to be written down. This approach has been consist- ently applied in past cases and will continue to guide the actions of the SRB and ECB banking supervision in crisis interventions. Additional Tier 1 is and will remain an important component of the capital structure of European banks. 03/16 Fitch Ratings: Programme-Specific Arrangements Still Key for Portugal Covered Bonds Any rating impact from the completion of the new framework for Portuguese covered bonds will depend on pro- gramme-specific arrangements, Fitch Ratings says. These include overcollateralisation (OC) levels and the type of liquid assets that will be included in the cover pool to protect against short-term payment interruption risk.The draft secondary legislation issued by the Portuguese Security Exchange Commission (Comissao do Mercado de Valores Mobiliarios; CMVM) does not introduce stricter requirements than those in last year’s primary legislation that implemented the EU’s Covered Bond Directive (Decree Law 31/2022). This enables issuers to provide addi- tional investor protection contractually or voluntarily. Fitch already considers programme-specific protection in its analysis of covered bonds issued under the legacy Obrigacoes Hipotecarias (OH) framework. \* Closing prices from the previous day Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory, \* ASW-Spreads Market Data (current\*, vs. 1 week, vs. 4 weeks) E-STOXX 600 Banks 148 3,37% -9,87% iBoxx € Cov. Germany 6,4 0,0 -0,7 iTraxx Senior Financial 105,2 -26,3 15,4 10Yr-Yield 2,3 0,2 -0,2 iBoxx € Cov. Bonds 19,8 0,1 -0,1 iBoxx € Supranational 18,6 -0,57 -0,55 Swap 10J 3,0 0,1 -0,1 iBoxx € Banks PS 88,9 -1,8 20,8 iBoxx € Agencies -1,5 2,21 -2,83 iBoxx € Germany -52,9 10,0 -8,1 iBoxx Banks NPS 124,5 -15,0 19,8 iBoxx € Sub-Sov. Germany 9,7 -1,07 -0,45 iBoxx € EU 24,8 -0,5 -0,6 iBoxx Banks Subordinated 208,2 -4,1 30,8 iBoxx € Sub-Sovereign 27,0 -0,29 0,06 Leisure tip for the weekend: Friedenstein Palace in Gotha Do you have ideas for leisure tips? We would be happy to receive your suggestions at research@helaba.de. Source: https://www.stiftung-friedenstein.de/en In Gotha, Friedenstein Palace and its holdings have preserved a unique en- semble with the historical representative rooms from the Baroque and Classicism periods, the Ekhof Theatre and equally diverse and rich art-his- torical, historical and natural history collections, which are presented in three museums in the palace (Palace Museum, Historical Museum, Museum of Nature) and in the Ducal Museum. Here, Baroque and Enlightenment thinking and action can be excellently understood. In addition, there are always special exhibitions on various topics as well as the possibility of guided tours through the museums. Further information: Friedenstein Palace Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 23 March 2023 7 of 8 Chartbook SSAs, Covered Bonds, Senior Unsecured Senior Primary volumes Senior Unsecured: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 Senior Non-preferred 2023 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Non-preferred 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Mrz.22 Mai.22 Jul.22 Sep.22 Nov.22 Jan.23 Mrz.23 Banks Subordinated Banks Senior Bail-in Banks Senior Preferred Covered Primary volumes Covered Bonds: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 2022 2021 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Mrz.22 Mai.22 Jul.22 Sep.22 Nov.22 Jan.23 Mrz.23 EUR Covered Covered Germany SSAs: Primary volumes SSAs: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2022 2021 2023 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 Mrz. 22 Mai. 22 Jul. 22 Sep. 22 Nov. 22 Jan. 23 Mrz. 23 Sub-Sovereigns Agencies Supranationals Sub-Sovereigns Germany Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 23 March 2023 8 of 8 News from Research & Advisory  Focus on Credits: Social and sustainability bonds: ICMA Principles - the freestyle element makes all the difference  European banks: An optimistic outlook for 2023  Focus on: Corporate Schuldschein: Burgeoning diversity creates new options for investors  Focus on: Primary Market update EUR Benchmark Bank Bonds Q4 2022  Focus on: Singaporean Covered Bonds - Top credit quality made in Asia  Credits: Corporate Schuldschein: Primary market 2022  Markets and Trends 2023  FOCUS ON CREDITS - BASEL III AND THE EU COUNCIL'S POSITION ON THE LEGISLATIVE PACKAGE  FOCUS ON: SUSTAINABLE FINANCE - THE RENDEZVOUS CLAUSE  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – BANK AND COVERED BOND PROFILES GERMANY  FOCUS ON: SSAS – GERMAN AGENCIES  FOCUS ON: COVERED BONDS – EUROPEAN COVERED BONDS: CENTRAL WEBSITE PROVIDES CLARITIY Team of authors Publisher and editorial office Helaba Research & Advisory Editor: Sabrina Miehs Corporate Research & Advisory Responsible: Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chefvolkswirtin/ Head of Research & Advisory Neue Mainzer Str. 52-58 60311 Frankfurt am Main T +49 69 / 91 32 – 20 24 Internet: www.helaba.com Disclaimer This publication has been prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains only non-binding analyses and forecasts of current and future market conditions. The information is based on sources which we consider to be reliable, but for whose accuracy, completeness or up-to-dateness we cannot assume any liability. All state- ments made in this publication are for information purposes only. They must not be understood as an offer or recommendation for investment de- cisions. Here you can subscribe to our newsletter: https://news.helaba.de/research/ Dr. Susanne Knips Senior Credit Analyst T 069/91 32-32 11 Sabrina Miehs, CESGA Head of FI & SSA Research Senior Advisor Sustainable Finance T 069/91 32-48 90 Christian Schmidt Covered Bond & SSA Analyst T 069/91 32-23 88

SSA: New issues provide positive signals. Covered Bonds: Market participants wait for more favourable conditions. Senior Unsecured: Turbulence causes double-digit spread widening in the cash market. Chart of the Week: USD FRA OIS - Upward trend continues.