---
title: "SSAs and Financials: Weekly Market Update"
url: https://www.helaba.com/en/ssas-and-financials-weekly-market-update-37
type: dd_research
language: en
updated: 2026-09-28
keywords: Renten, Weekly Market Update_englisch
---

# SSAs and Financials: Weekly Market Update

Focus on: SSAs & Financials 14 September 2023 © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 14 September 2023 1 of 8 Research & Advisory Weekly Market Update Primary market environment: Prices continue to rise in the US. In Europe, too, the risk has in- creased that inflation will be more persistent than previously expected in the coming months. Despite the worsening economic outlook, the ECB raised interest rates again today. The primary market environment is largely constructive. The predominance of red in our Risk Trend Indicator shows that sentiment remains gloomy. The exception is the senior unsecured segment. Spreads here have been tightening for several weeks. Primary market barometer This week's issues have once again demonstrated the central role of pric- ing. If pricing is too ambitious from the market's point of view, as was probably the case with the two state issues, it is difficult to fill the order books sufficiently. As expected, the ECBC conference in Munich had a dampening effect on primary market activity. Banco BPM and DekaBank were at least two issu- ers whose 3-year covered bonds were well received. In this segment, too, the week in the primary market was more subdued. Market participants adopted a wait- and-see stance ahead of central bank decisions. Many investors used the time to position themselves for fur- ther new issues. We expect activity to pick up again after the central bank decisions. Covered Bonds Senior Unsecured SSAs Risk trend indicator: Risks weighted higher overall Relative\* ASW spread change \* ASW levels standardized and 2T-smoothed Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory IBOXX EURO 1 day 1 week 4 week 13 weeks 52 weeks 104 weeks Germany 0,00 0,04 0,24 0,30 2,21 -0,11 European Union 0,02 0,16 0,25 -0,14 1,74 2,20 Germany Covered 0,04 0,21 0,25 0,51 1,29 1,68 EU Covered 0,02 0,12 0,15 0,26 1,09 1,62 Banks senior preferred -0,04 -0,14 -0,11 -0,23 0,00 1,77 Banks senior bail-in (SNP) -0,02 -0,10 -0,06 -0,30 -0,37 1,56 Banks subordinated -0,03 -0,07 0,14 -0,06 -0,28 2,38 Supranational 0,02 0,14 0,15 -0,13 1,63 1,79 Agencies 0,02 0,20 0,27 0,43 2,30 0,76 Sub-Sovereigns Germany 0,01 0,11 0,08 0,03 0,87 -0,42 Sub-Sovereigns 0,01 0,14 0,17 -0,04 1,23 0,54 strong middle weak unchanged weak middle strong spread widening spread tightening Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 14 September 2023 2 of 8 SSAs The Export-Import Bank of Korea (Kexim) and the State of Rhineland-Palatinate started the week in the SSA segment. Kexim did well with a book that was 1.5 times oversubscribed. No deal details were released on the Rhineland-Palatinate transaction, which may indicate a more moderate demand. As expected by the market, the EU offered a 7-year bond (12/2030) on Tuesday. The spread was tightened by 2bps to MS+2bps as the book was more than 9 times oversubscribed between marketing and pricing. Agence Française de Développement (AFD) issued a EUR 500m 15-year social bond (WNG). The order book was full at EUR 6.1bn and the final spread was tightened by 4bps to OAT +39. The Free State of Saxony was also active with a EUR 500m 3- year WNG. No information was provided on the order book, so demand was presumably manageable. With an ini- tial spread indication of MS -16 and a resulting new issue premium of 1 bp, pricing was probably too ambitious. Outlook: The primary market environment remains constructive, although getting the pricing right is important. Covered Bonds Banco BPM was successful in the primary market earlier this week with a 3-year benchmark (EUR 500m, WNG). The issue was almost 2 times oversubscribed. This was the second time in less than two months that the issuer had accessed the primary market. Some pent-up demand from Italian banks was to be expected - Banco Desio had returned to the market the previous week after a long absence. DekaBank also chose a 3-year tenor for the placement of a sub-benchmark (EUR 250m). With a book of EUR 530m, the issue was 2.1 times oversubscribed. The final spread (MS+ 9 bps.) was 3 bps tighter than the marketing. Outlook: The psychological element of quantitative tightening by central banks combined with advanced invest- ment activity by bank treasuries is keeping the market under pressure. After this week's reduced issuance activity due to the ECBC conference, we expect more primary market activity next week. Officially mandated so far are Fin- land's S-Bank, which has been authorised to issue covered bonds from 30 June 2022, and Australia's Bendigo and Adelaide Bank. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3.625% Export-Import Bank of Korea Aa2/AA/AA- 0,500 bn 18.09.2027 ms 40 Bp 11.09.2023 0,750 bn 3mE-22Bp Rheinland-Pfalz -/-/AAA 0,500 bn 16.09.2025 not disclosed 11.09.2023 not disclosed not disclosed 3.125% EU Aaa/AA+/AAA 5,000 bn 04.09.2030 ms + 2 Bp 12.09.2023 46,000 bn ms + 4 area 3.750% Agence Francaise de Devellopment -/AA/AA- 0,500 bn 20.09.2038 FRTRs +39 Bp  12.09.2023 6,100 bn FRTRs +43 area 3.375% Sachsen -/AAA/- 0,500 bn 21.09.2026 ms -16 Bp 13.09.2023 not disclosed ms -16 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € SSAs issues week of 11 September 2023 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3.875% Banco BPM Spa Aa3/-/- 0,500 bn 18.09.2026 ms +49 Bp  11.09.2023 0,900 bn ms +52 area 3.500% DekaBank Aaa/-/- 0,250 bn 09.10.2026 ms + 9 Bp 12.09.2023 0,530 bn ms + 12 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Covered Bond issues week of 11 September 2023 “At the moment, buyers of covered bonds can be confident that new projects will come with respectable pre- miums. There is currently no reason to buy "old" bonds. Issuers are in a dilemma, especially as they can only realise their projects with increased price concessions. Otherwise their books will not be sufficiently filled. All in all, the market is in a kind of one-way street.” Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 14 September 2023 3 of 8 The annual meeting of the Covered Bond Community took place on 13 September as part of the ECBC Plenary Meeting in Munich. Representatives of the ECB and the EBA provided information on key financial stability issues, upcoming impact assessments of the Covered Bond Directive and the development of the green covered bond market. In addition, representatives of German and European covered bond issuers discussed recent developments and trends in the Pfandbrief market as well as challenges and opportunities in the covered bond market. We have summarised the key points of the two panel discussions:  The trend towards repricing and differentiation in the covered bond market continues.  With the reduction of the ECB's covered bond holdings and repricing, the EUR covered bond market is facing increased competition from other markets - for example, the domestic Norwegian market is often more fa- vourable for Norwegian issuers.  Macro issues, the inverted yield curve and the expanded investment opportunities for investors resulting from the transposition of the EU Covered Bond Directive into national law (and the resulting harmonised minimum standards) are the main drivers of the market at present. As a result, investors are increasing their holdings of securities with higher risk premiums.  The implementation of the EU Covered Bond Directive makes the work of investors easier, especially as, ac- cording to a Norwegian issuer, investors can focus more on economic than on legal issues.  There are no credit concerns, only price concerns, according to one panellist, but covered bonds remain "credits", according to others.  A representative from FitchRatings raised the issue of liquidity provision for covered bonds. This is manda- tory under the EU Covered Bond Directive, but the way it is implemented varies from country to country. The agency plans to take this into account in its covered bond rating methodology and invites market partici- pants to comment on the proposal by 25 September.  Shorter covered bond maturities are an issue for ALM management, issuers acknowledge. Fitch sees a risk of maturity concentrations, e.g. several large-volume issues maturing within a short period of time.  Green and social covered bonds: The Pfandbrief Panel continues to see Germany as a pioneer and driver of sustainable covered bonds. The generation of ESG data remains a challenge Senior Unsecured Activity in the primary market for senior unsecured bank bonds was subdued this week. Only three transactions were executed in EUR benchmark format for a total volume of EUR 1.5 billion. Ahead of today's ECB and next Wednesday's Fed decisions, market participants are taking a wait-and-see approach. Many investors are using the time to position themselves for further new issues. Among others, asset managers are making room for new material. The new issues since Monday have all been non-preferred bonds from institutions that are relatively infrequent in the market. With attractive spread premiums, the transactions have been quite successful. Favourable market conditions have contributed to this. The new issues of recent weeks have performed well in the secondary market, which has often been used for profit taking. Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 14 September 2023 4 of 8 Outlook: The primary market for senior unsecured bank bonds continues to be driven by high maturities. Many banks have already made good progress with their issuance plans, but pre-funding is already gaining in im- portance given the benign market environment. We expect activity to pick up following the central bank deci- sions. Chart of the Week All covered bond issues this week had a maturity of 3 years. This means that the sweet spot of around 5 years has moved forward. The inverted yield curve is likely to have contributed significantly to this development, es- pecially as the most attractive absolute yields for inves- tors are currently in the 2-3 year range. Relatively high new issue premiums (NIPs) are now the rule rather than the exception in the covered bond segment anyway, and the longer the maturity targeted by the issuer, the more generous the yield compensation via the NIP has to be. The last 10-year EUR benchmark covered bond was issued on 19 June. Which issuer will be the next to dare such a long window? Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication none Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Preferred issues week of 11 September 2023 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 4.467% Zürcher Kantonalbank Aa2/-/- 0,500 bn 15.09.2027 ms + 100 Bp 11.09.2023 0,750 bn ms +115/120 area 9.875% Bank M illennium SA Ba2/-/BB 0,400 bn 18.09.2027 ms +640 Bp 11.09.2023 0,675 bn 10,000 % area 6.000% Crelan SA/NV Baa3/-/- 0,600 bn 28.02.2030 ms + 285 Bp  12.09.2023 1,150 bn ms +300 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Non-preferred issues week of 11 September 2023 3-year maturities dominate for covered bonds Number of transactions by maturity (1 Jnauary – 14 September 2023) Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 10 47 35 45 13 24 5 6 16 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-11 12-13 Maturities in years „The cash market was a mixed bag last week. The preferred segment was largely unchanged and underper- formed the non-prefs. The latter tightened by 3-4bps on average, mainly due to the strong performance of German and French bank bonds. The rest of the market saw subdued spread developments. Flows are well balanced and have picked up slightly again, but remain characterised by the caution of many investors due to primary market activity. Short and medium maturities are the most active segments on our trading plat- forms.“ Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 14 September 2023 5 of 8 Short news 9/13 ECB criticizes new Italian tax on windfall bank profits: The European Central Bank (ECB) criti- cized the Italian government's proposed tax on windfall bank profits, saying it did not consider lend- ers' long-term prospects and could make some of them vulnerable to an economic downturn. Italy clarified that the new tax would amount to no more than 0.1% of lenders' total assets, Reuters points out. 9/13 Deutsche Bank set to get ECB capital relief on risky loans: Deutsche Bank is likely to win a reduction in the capital surcharge for its leveraged finance business from the European Central Bank, according to Bloomberg. The ECB is set to communicate individual capital requirements to banks later this year and the size of any reduc- tion depends on the lender’s efforts, says people familiar with the matter. 9/11 Spain rejects appeals to suspend banking tax payments: Spain's High Court has rejected appeals by Bank- inter, Sabadell, and Cajasur to suspend payments of the extraordinary banking tax while it reviews the levy's valid- ity, Reuters says. Some banks and associations objected to the tax and filed challenges, while the European Cen- tral Bank also warned of adverse effects on the banking system. 9/8 Robust companies, weak credit demand: The German economy is in a pronounced phase of weakness. Banks stand ready to finance creditworthy companies and investments and want to continue to support their customers in the transformation, the Association of German Banks (BdB) writes. 9/7 EU capital markets post Brexit: Asset managers, pension funds and brokers across Europe have stepped up their opposition to EU plans to shift trillions of euros of derivatives out of London, warning the move could hurt European companies and investors, according to the Financial Times. The EU plans are part of a package in- tended to boost Europe’s capital markets and reduce the EU’s reliance on the UK’s financial services sector after Brexit. The proposals are currently before European parliamentarians and Brussels hopes to have the proposals signed off before elections next year. But the signatories said the plans “would negatively impact EU capital mar- kets”. 9/7 Moody’s Investor Service: Mortgage covered bonds will stand strong in face of high inflation and interest rates. High interest rates and inflation, weak economic prospects and declining property prices are heightening risks for covered bonds in many countries. In the face of these risks, Moody’s expect the credit quality of mortgage covered bonds will stand strong overall, in large part because of the strength of issuers, large collateral buffers and other structural protections. 9/6 Moody’s Investor Service: Equivalence would increase investor base for third-country covered bonds, re- ducing refinancing risk. The EU is looking into the possibility of an equivalence regime for covered bonds issued in countries outside the European Economic Area (third countries). If the EU introduces such a regime, covered bonds in third countries that achieve equivalence status will qualify for preferential treatment under EU regula- tions, which will enhance their appeal to European investors and therefore reduce refinancing risk. Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 14 September 2023 6 of 8 \* Closing prices from the previous day Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory, \* ASW-Spreads Market Data (current\*, vs. 1 week, vs. 4 weeks) E-STOXX 600 Banks 157 1,72% -0,11% iBoxx € Cov. Germany 11,4 0,8 1,9 iTraxx Senior Financial 81,1 -1,8 -2,8 10Yr-Yield 2,65 0,00 0,01 iBoxx € Cov. Bonds 24,6 0,8 2,0 iBoxx € Supranational 17,4 0,8 1,6 Swap 10J 3,21 0,01 -0,04 iBoxx € Banks PS 75,6 -4,9 -3,6 iBoxx € Agencies 3,5 0,9 2,7 iBoxx € Germany -42,12 -1,08 3,66 iBoxx Banks NPS 105,0 -4,6 -3,0 iBoxx € Sub-Sov. Germany 11,0 1,1 1,4 iBoxx € EU 22,78 1,20 2,95 iBoxx Banks Subordinated 194,0 -5,3 5,2 iBoxx € Sub-Sovereign 25,2 0,7 1,7 Leisure tip for the weekend: Falconry on the Rennsteig, (Waltershausen, Thuringia) Do you have ideas for leisure tips? We would be happy to receive your suggestions at research@helaba.de. Source: https://www.rennsteigfalknerei.de Get up close to the kings of the air and let eagles, eagle owls and other birds of prey land on your arm! The Rennsteig falconry makes it possible. In the flight show you can experience eagles, owls, falcons, buzzards and vul- tures in their majestic free flight. There is a unique opportunity to land a bird of prey on your arm. The specially trained raptors and owls will fly to you! The flight show is interactive, so visitors don't just watch, they be- come a bit of a falconer! More information: Falconry Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 14 September 2023 7 of 8 Chartbook SSAs, Covered Bonds, Senior Unsecured Senior Unsecured: Primary volumes Senior Unsecured: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 Senior Non-preferred 2023 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Non-preferred 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 09/22 11/22 01/23 03/23 05/23 07/23 09/23 Banks Subordinated Banks Senior Bail-in Banks Senior Preferred Covered Bonds: Primary volumes Covered Bonds: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 2022 2021 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 09/22 11/22 01/23 03/23 05/23 07/23 09/23 EUR Covered Covered Germany SSAs: Primary volumes SSAs: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2022 2021 2023 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 09/22 11/22 01/23 03/23 05/23 07/23 09/23 Sub-Sovereigns Agencies Supranationals Sub-Sovereigns Germany Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 14 September 2023 8 of 8 News from Research & Advisory  Focus on Credits: Primary market update EUR benchmark bank bonds H1 2023  Focus on Credits: EUR Corporate bonds: Primary market Q2 2023  Video: Sustainable Finance – ICMA & Helaba Talk 2023  Focus on Credits: Social and sustainability bonds: ICMA Principles - the freestyle ele- ment makes all the difference  European banks: An optimistic outlook for 2023 Team of authors Publisher and editorial office Helaba Research & Advisory Editor: Stefan Rausch Corporate Research & Advisory Responsible: Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chefvolkswirtin/ Head of Research & Advisory Neue Mainzer Str. 52-58 60311 Frankfurt am Main T +49 69 / 91 32 – 20 24 Internet: www.helaba.com Disclaimer This publication has been prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains only non-binding analyses and forecasts of current and future market conditions. The information is based on sources which we consider to be reliable, but for whose accuracy, completeness or up-to-dateness we cannot assume any liability. All state- ments made in this publication are for information purposes only. They must not be understood as an offer or recommendation for investment de- cisions. Here you can subscribe to our newsletter: https://news.helaba.de/research/ Dr. Susanne Knips Senior Credit Analyst T 069/91 32-32 11 Sabrina Miehs, CESGA Head of FI & SSA Research Senior Advisor Sustainable Finance T 069/91 32-48 90 Christian Schmidt Covered Bond & SSA Analyst T 069/91 32-23 88

SSAs: Pricing is key. Covered Bonds: ECBC conference dampens issuance. Senior Unsecured: Central bank decisions make for a quieter week. Chart of the Week: 3-year maturities dominate covered bonds.