---
title: "SSAs and Financials: Weekly Market Update"
url: https://www.helaba.com/en/ssas-and-financials-weekly-market-update-35
type: dd_research
language: en
updated: 2026-09-28
keywords: Renten, Weekly Market Update_englisch
---

# SSAs and Financials: Weekly Market Update

Focus on: SSAs & Financials 5 October 2023 © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 5 October 2023 1 of 7 Research & Advisory Weekly Market Update Primary market environment: The news flow, including the possibility of a shutdown in the US, has had a paralysing effect on activity in recent days. Particularly in the SSA and covered seg- ments, yields are trending upwards and new issues are demanding higher spread premiums. However, considerable countermovements that can be actively used occur again and again. Risk appetite is clearly waning, as our heat map shows. Investors are increasingly turning to high quality bonds. All this is happening with relatively low turnover. Primary market barometer The quarter started even less buoy- ant than the previous one ended. Nevertheless, the environment re- mains constructive dependent on the pricing. However, we expect few new issues for the remaining year as many issuers have already completed their funding plans. The picture remains strained. Never- theless, the two issues by CFF and Kookmin Bank demonstrate that placements can be successful even in this subdued environment. While the primary market initially ap- peared to be paralysed, two issuers have taken advantage of the counter- movement in the market environment today. Overall, the low level of activity is not only due to the market environ- ment, but also to the approaching quarterly reporting season and the as- sociated blackout period. Covered Bonds Senior Unsecured SSAs Risk trend indicator: Declining risk appetite Relative\* ASW spread change \* ASW levels standardized and 2T-smoothed Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory IBOXX EURO 1 day 1 week 4 week 13 weeks 52 weeks 104 weeks Germany -0,04 -0,05 0,12 0,36 2,45 0,05 European Union 0,01 0,15 0,46 0,62 1,59 2,41 Germany Covered -0,02 0,01 0,49 0,59 1,45 1,92 EU Covered -0,01 0,02 0,27 0,33 1,21 1,82 Banks senior preferred 0,13 0,14 0,08 0,18 -0,43 2,01 Banks senior bail-in (SNP) 0,16 0,17 0,16 0,22 -0,72 1,84 Banks subordinated 0,18 0,20 0,14 0,28 -0,99 2,52 Supranational 0,02 0,17 0,39 0,41 1,64 2,06 Agencies 0,02 0,01 0,38 0,55 2,56 1,00 Sub-Sovereigns Germany 0,00 0,02 0,12 0,08 0,82 -0,24 Sub-Sovereigns 0,03 0,15 0,32 0,33 1,17 0,80 strong middle weak unchanged weak middle strong spread widening\* spread tightening\* Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 5 October 2023 2 of 7 SSAs The new quarter started slowly. The EFSF alone took the opportunity to place a double tranche (new long 5-year April 2029 and a tap of the Sept 2034) totalling EUR 4 bn with solid order books. The new issue premiums of 6bp (for the short tranche) and 5bp (for the step-up) were roughly in line with the recently is- sued Land Treasury Bills. Thus, like many of its predecessors in recent days and weeks, this transaction contrib- uted to new pricing points and led to further re-pricing of secondary market spreads. Outlook: There are likely to be a few more issuers in the pipeline. Next week we expect the EU and Spain's national development bank ICO. Covered Bonds We would have liked to move on quickly from September and report a lively primary market in the first week of October. However, the last month of the quarter failed to shine with the usual bumper issuance volumes. Only EUR 6.6bn of benchmark covered bonds were sold - the lowest September figure since 2016. There are probably many reasons for this: We have already reported on selective investor interest and full credit lines. At the same time, the ECB continued to reduce its covered bond holdings by a good EUR 3.3bn to EUR 293bn. First and foremost, however, is the high volume of issues already placed this year (shown by the red line in our chart on page 6). At the same time, the slowdown in new lending in recent months has led to lower refinancing needs, and higher funding costs are anything but conducive. As a result, both issuers and investors remained increasingly cautious until the middle of this week. Contrary to our expectations, the start of the quarter has not yet changed this. However, France's CFF and South Korea's Kook- min Bank took advantage of Thursday's issuance window. CFF offered its first social covered bond of EUR 500m with a good 5-year maturity (January 2029) at a reasonable spread of MS +40bps. With a final order book of more than EUR 3 bn, it narrowed the spread to MS +32 bps. Kookmin Bank also managed to fix its 3.5-year benchmark 3 bps below the guidance of MS +58 bps with an order book of more than EUR 750 million. Outlook: Further projects are in the pipeline, and issuers are likely to pay close attention to the performance of announced issuance projects. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3.500% EFSF AAA /AA/AA- 2.500 M rd. 11.04.2029 ms +7 Bp 04.10.2023 5.300 M rd. ms + 7 area 3.000% EFSF AAA /AA/AA- 1.500 M rd.  04.09.2034 ms +25 Bp 04.10.2023 3.800 M rd. ms + 26 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € SSAs issues week of 2 October 2023 "Still no relief on the spread front! The capitulation seen in the markets last Thursday has left more cracks. In addition, a significant number of vintage bonds (benchmark issues with a longer issue date) have still not reached the new pricing levels of the new issues. In our view, spread convergence trades are likely to materi- alise." Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 5 October 2023 3 of 7 Senior Unsecured The primary market in this segment was also initially paralysed and inactive, with no transactions reported in the first three days of the week. Today, two banks took advantage of the countermove- ment in the market environment to issue senior unsecured bank bonds. The market environment is characterised by rising yields and widening spreads. In particular, risk premiums have risen for some Italian bonds, but also in Germany and Spain. Risk appetite is clearly waning and investors are in- creasingly turning to good credit quality and shorter maturities. Market participants' price expectations vary widely, which is why turnover is low. Another reason for the low market activity, apart from the difficult environ- ment, is the approaching quarterly reporting season and the associated blackout period. In addition, the primary market in the senior unsecured segment has been very active so far this year, with the total issuance volume reaching around EUR 180 billion, an impressive 22% increase versus the same period last year. Outlook: Many institutions have already made good progress in terms of their issuance plans and can take a wait-and-see approach in a more difficult market environment. The US quarterly reporting season starts at the end of next week. We expect issuance in the senior unsecured segment to be light for the time being. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication . CFF . 0.500 M rd. 16.01.2029 ms +32 Bp 05.10.2023 3.100 M rd. ms + 40 area . Kookmin Bank . 0.500 M rd. 13.04.2027 ms +55 Bp 05.10.2023 0.925 M rd. ms + 58 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Covered Bond issues week of 2 October 2023 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 4.375% Hamburger Sparkasse AG Aa3 0.500 M rd. 12.02.2029 ms +100 Bp 05.10.2023 1.000 M rd. ms + 120 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 7.000% Raiffeisen Bank S.A. Baa2 0.300 M rd. 12.10.2027 ms +340 Bp 05.10.2023 0.000 M rd. M id 7.000% area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Preferred issues week of 2 October 2023 € Senior Non-preferred issues week of 2 October 2023 „High oil prices, the ongoing property crisis in China and a possible shutdown in the United States pushed investors into defensive positions. The iTraxx indices have widended accordingly. The cash register is not unaffected by this, following the expansion on average 1:1. Towards the end of the quarter, investor flows picked up again. ETF funds and real money accounts remained defensive and largely continued to be sellers. Risk appetite has diminished markedly, with the shift to shorter maturities and high quality issuers continu- ing. However, the start of the new quarter was subdued due to the holiday day and the bridging day.“ Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 5 October 2023 4 of 7 Chart of the Week According to media reports, ECB policymakers may soon discuss how to deal with the multi-trillion euros of excess liquidity held by banks. A possible first step could be to raise reserve requirements, Reuters re- ports. The debate, which could begin at the ECB's next meeting in Athens on 26 October or at a meeting in the autumn, is seen by monetary watchers as a further step towards normalising monetary policy. For banks, the increase in reserve requirements could lead to lower interest income, but in our view their creditwor- thiness should not be significantly affected. Short news 10/4 EU Taxonomy for Sustainable Investments: The EU Taxonomy is the world's most detailed and comprehensive framework for classifying sustainable economic activities. To better break down this complexity, the Association of German Banks (BdB) has published a guideline in 2022. Since the taxonomy frame- work has evolved steadily since then, the BdB has issued an updated guide. 10/3 The EMF-ECBC has released its 2023 edition of Hypostat: It provides a comprehensive analysis of the state of play of mortgage and housing markets in the 27 Member States of the European Union as well as in 9 additional countries. Hypostat 2023 brings together the efforts of over 30 contributors, commenting on an annual data series of 30 indicators and includes various articles focusing on key market developments. 10/3 Basel III: The Basel Committee has published its report on the Basel III implementation progress. The report shows good progress since the previous report in October 2022 in implementing the outstanding Basel III stand- ards with 1 January 2023 due date. 10/3 EBA work program for 2024: The European Banking Authority (EBA) published its annual work program for 2024, setting out the key strategic areas to work on in the coming year. The focus will be on implementing the EU banking package and monitoring financial stability as well as sustainability against a backdrop of increased inter- est rates and uncertainty. 10/3 Parliament votes through Buch as EU banking cop: The European Parliament voted through Germany’s Claudia Buch to become the EU’s next chief banking supervisor after a standoff with the European Central Bank (ECB). As pointed out by POLITICO, Buch’s appointment would remove a hurdle for Spain’s Finance Minister Nadia Calviño to become the next head of the European Investment Bank (EIB). 10/2 The question of monetary policy transmission: "The transmission of our monetary policy to the real econ- omy will be key to our future decisions," ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos says. He adds: We need to see how strongly the tightening of financing conditions feeds through to the real economy and inflation. 10/2 BoE warns lenders over loan loss estimates: The Bank of England (BoE) warned lenders about the risk in the models they use to predict loan losses and criticized them for failing to fully recognize the impact of high inflation and interest rates on borrowers, the Financial Times reports. BoE said it wanted banks to “challenge whether models capture risks associated with affordability”. Banking sector holds high ECB excess liquidity Liabilities to euro area credit institutions related to monetary policy operations denominated in euro Sources: ECB, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 AT DE ES FR GR IE IT NL Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 5 October 2023 5 of 7 9/28 ESA’s analysis of the extent of voluntary disclosure of principal adverse impacts under the SFDR: The Joint Committee of the three European Supervisory Authorities (ESAs) published their second annual Report on the extent of voluntary disclosure of principal adverse impacts under Article 18 of the Sustainable Finance Disclo- sure Regulation (SFDR). \* Closing prices from the previous day Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory Market Data (current\*, vs. 1 week, vs. 4 weeks) E-STOXX 600 Banks 157 -1.38% 2.09% iBoxx € Cov. Germany 13.1 -0.3 2.6 iTraxx Senior Financial 98.3 5.0 15.4 10Yr-Yield 2.94 0.11 0.29 iBoxx € Cov. Bonds 26.0 -0.1 2.2 iBoxx € Supranational 20.1 1.6 3.5 Swap 10J 3.48 0.10 0.28 iBoxx € Banks PS 83.9 6.1 3.4 iBoxx € Agencies 5.2 -0.2 2.6 iBoxx € Germany -41.53 -1.57 -0.49 iBoxx Banks NPS 117.5 8.8 7.9 iBoxx € Sub-Sov. Germany 11.1 0.0 1.2 iBoxx € EU 26.58 1.36 5.00 iBoxx Banks Subordinated 210.9 15.7 11.6 iBoxx € Sub-Sovereign 27.4 1.6 2.9 Leisure tip for the weekend: Museum Burg Linn Do you have ideas for leisure tips? We would be happy to receive your suggestions at research@helaba.de. Source: https://www.monschau.de/en & www.stadtpfade-reisen.de/ausflugsziele Burg Linn Museum offers a journey through 10,000 years of human history on the Lower Rhine: 6,500 graves tell of the lives of very different people: simple farmers as well as the princes of their time are reflected in finds from the birth of Christ to the Middle Ages. Linn Castle, the Hunting Lodge and the Archaeological Museum are open to visitors all year round with permanent and temporary exhibitions as well as various interactive events and demonstrations. Find out more: Museum Burg Linn Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 5 October 2023 6 of 7 Chartbook SSAs, Covered Bonds, Senior Unsecured Senior Unsecured: Primary volumes Senior Unsecured: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 Senior Non-preferred 2023 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Non-preferred 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 10/22 12/22 02/23 04/23 06/23 08/23 10/23 Banks Subordinated Banks Senior Bail-in Banks Senior Preferred Covered Bonds: Primary volumes Covered Bonds: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 2022 2021 -2 2 6 10 14 18 22 26 30 -2 2 6 10 14 18 22 26 30 10/22 12/22 02/23 04/23 06/23 08/23 10/23 EUR Covered Covered Germany SSAs: Primary volumes SSAs: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2022 2021 2023 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 10/22 12/22 02/23 04/23 06/23 08/23 10/23 Sub-Sovereigns Agencies Supranationals Sub-Sovereigns Germany Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 5 October 2023 7 of 7 News from Research & Advisory  Focus on Credit: EUR Corporate bonds - Primary market Q3 2023  Focus on Credit: Primary market update EUR benchmark bank bonds H1 2023  Video: Sustainable Finance – ICMA & Helaba Talk 2023  Focus on Credit: Social and sustainability bonds: ICMA Principles - the freestyle ele- ment makes all the difference  European banks: An optimistic outlook for 2023 Team of authors Publisher and editorial office Helaba Research & Advisory Editor: Sabrina Miehs Corporate Research & Advisory Responsible: Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chefvolkswirtin/ Head of Research & Advisory Neue Mainzer Str. 52-58 60311 Frankfurt am Main T +49 69 / 91 32 – 20 24 Internet: www.helaba.com Disclaimer This publication has been prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains only non-binding analyses and forecasts of current and future market conditions. The information is based on sources which we consider to be reliable, but for whose accuracy, completeness or up-to-dateness we cannot assume any liability. All state- ments made in this publication are for information purposes only. They must not be understood as an offer or recommendation for investment de- cisions. Here you can subscribe to our newsletter: https://news.helaba.de/research/ Dr. Susanne Knips Senior Credit Analyst T 069/91 32-32 11 Sabrina Miehs, CESGA Head of FI & SSA Research Senior Advisor Sustainable Finance T 069/91 32-48 90 Christian Schmidt Covered Bond & SSA Analyst T 069/91 32-23 88

SSA: Little activity – ESFS with successful double tranche, Covered Bonds: Quarter starts slowly, Senior Unsecured: Quiet before quarterly reporting season and blackout period, Chart of the Week: Banking sector holds high ECB excess liquidity