---
title: "SSAs and Financials: Weekly Market Update"
url: https://www.helaba.com/en/ssas-and-financials-weekly-market-update-29
type: dd_research
language: en
updated: 2026-09-28
keywords: Renten, Weekly Market Update_englisch
---

# SSAs and Financials: Weekly Market Update

Focus on: SSAs & Financials 16 November 2023 © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 16 November 2023 1 of 7 Research & Advisory Weekly Market Update Primary market environment: In the US, the decline in inflation has contributed to a significant easing of interest rate concerns. On the ECB side, Centeno noted a "spreading economic anxiety in the eurozone". The absorptive capacity of the primary market is currently good across all as- set classes. Last week our Risk Trend Indicator pointed to an improvement in sentiment, which has continued recently. This is reflected in the increasingly green colouring of our heat map. Bank bonds saw the most significant narrowing of spreads over the week. Primary market barometer The EU's new issue and the simulta- neous tap of its February 2048 were oversubscribed by a factor of 10 and 20 respectively and stood out this week. The states of Berlin and NRW were also successful in the primary market. The environment for covered bonds remains constructive. The majority of this week's issues met with very good demand. The Rabobank issue was the one with the largest spread tighten- ing versus the marketing. The market environment for senior unsecured bank bonds remains con- structive. The new issues in recent weeks have shown a pleasingly good performance. A few more transactions are expected before the window slowly closes towards the end of the year. Covered Bonds Senior Unsecured SSAs Risk trend indicator (heat map): Sentiment continues to brighten Relative\* ASW spread change \* ASW levels standardized and 2T-smoothed Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory IBOXX EURO 1 day 1 week 4 week 13 weeks 52 weeks 104 weeks Germany -0,05 0,08 0,43 0,85 1,54 1,25 European Union -0,06 -0,12 0,24 0,87 1,36 2,83 Germany Covered -0,02 0,12 0,34 1,30 2,01 2,67 EU Covered -0,02 0,06 0,19 0,80 1,40 2,45 Banks senior preferred -0,10 -0,23 -0,05 0,23 -0,31 2,14 Banks senior bail-in (SNP) -0,11 -0,30 -0,25 0,04 -0,86 1,64 Banks subordinated -0,11 -0,25 -0,24 -0,02 -0,64 2,13 Supranational -0,06 -0,09 0,21 0,79 1,44 2,62 Agencies -0,10 -0,10 0,22 0,96 1,51 1,88 Sub-Sovereigns Germany -0,02 -0,01 0,13 0,37 0,74 -0,15 Sub-Sovereigns -0,04 -0,05 0,24 0,76 1,00 1,24 strong middle weak unchanged weak middle strong spread widening\* spread tightening\* Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 16 November 2023 2 of 7 SSAs The primary market in the SSA segment kicked off on Tuesday with the placement of the last EU syn- dicated bond of the year. The EUR 5bn 5-year issue was unsurprisingly ten times oversubscribed. In addition, the green bond maturing in February 2048 (under NextGenerationEU) was increased by EUR 3bn. Inves- tor demand was enormous and the book was ultimately 20 times oversubscribed. The final spread on both tranches narrowed by 2bp to MS +4bp and MS +72bp respectively. The State of North Rhine-Westphalia followed on Wednesday with a EUR 1bn 3-year benchmark, again benefiting from strong demand from foreign investors: Around 60% of the issue went to this investor group. The final spread of MS- 7bp was in line with the benchmark and the new issue premium was 2bp. Today, the State of Berlin rounded off its primary market activity with a EUR 250m tap of its July 2031 bond. Outlook: There are likely to be a few more projects in the pipeline. However, given the recent developments in the primary market, we no longer expect a significant pick-up in the primary market before the end of the year. Covered Bonds It appears that the active issuance period typically observed in autumn is concentrated in November and the period after the reporting season. Issues from first-rate issuers are still "easier" to place, although other bonds with correspondingly attractive spreads are also finding buyers. Some market participants may be surprised or even distrustful given the current good absorption capacity across all asset classes. The majority of issuers are therefore opting for a cautious, con- servative execution strategy such as "will not grow" and short lead times to minimise transaction risk. France's Caffil kicked off the primary market this week with a 5-year social security benchmark (EUR 500m, WNG). The final spread was 5bps tighter than the marketing and the book was 2.6x oversubscribed. The transaction had everything the market is currently looking for: a predetermined size, a medium maturity, an ESG component and a solid issuer name. The new issue premium was 1-2bps. Deutsche Bank S.A. Espanola Unipersonal, a rather rare guest on the primary market, generated demand of over EUR 1bn on Tuesday with a 3-year covered bond (EUR 500m, WNG). The final spread was MS + 40bp vs. the target of MS+40-42bp. This was followed on Wednesday by Münchener Hyp (EUR 500m, WNG, 5 years, green) and Ra- bobank (EUR 1.25bn, 5 years, green). With oversubscriptions of 2.8 and 1.75 respectively, both had no problems crossing the finish line. The final spreads narrowed by 5bp and 6bp respectively to MS +19/20bp. This was Mün- chener Hyp's fifth benchmark issue of the year, increasing the volume placed to EUR 3.25 billion. Due to the Pfand- brief's green design, demand was particularly strong abroad. Sparkasse Hannover completed the issue today with a sub-benchmark limited to EUR 250 million. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3,125% EU Aaa /AA+/AAA 5,000bn 05.12.2028 ms +4 bps 14.11.2023 66,000bn ms + 6 area 2,625% EU Aaa /AA+/AAA 3,000bn  04.02.2048 ms +72 bps  14.11.2023 71,000bn ms + 70 area 3,150% NRW Aa1 /AA/AAA 1,000bn 20.11.2026 ms -7 bps 15.11.2023 1,050bn ms - 7 area 3,000% Berlin Aa1 /-/AAA 0,250bn  11.07.2031 ms +7 bps 16.11.2023 0,415bn ms + 8 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € SSAs issues week of 13 November 2023 "At the moment, it seems that market participants are looking for a somewhat conciliatory end to what has been an extraordinary trading year. The still strong supply of new issues has been reasonably well received and order books continue to allow final reoffer spreads to tighten, although order books are far from the rec- ord levels of previous years. Spreads, although order volumes are far from the record levels of previous years. Banks appear to be increasingly acting as demand substitutes (post-QE). Sustainable bonds, i.e. those backed by green or social issues, are definitely helping marketing, the ESG narrative remains high on the list". Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 16 November 2023 3 of 7 Primarily and secondarily, the music is still playing at the short end of the curve (up to max. 5y), but this develop- ment should also come to an end at some point. We expect longer-dated projects to be back on the agenda by the start of the new year at the latest. Spread premiums will depend on the general level of yields and the structure of the curve. Second, German Pfandbriefe have been among the recent underperformers due to the news flow. How- ever, some stabilisation can be seen at current levels. A litmus test for sentiment is likely to come in 2024. Outlook: The primary market is currently doing relatively well and this could continue in the short term. Last year, covered bonds with a volume of just over EUR 11bn were issued between 14 November and 31 December. It re- mains to be seen whether a similar volume can be achieved this year. Chart of the Week The widening trend has acceler- ated significantly since the be- ginning of September. During this period, the Germany Cov- ered widened from around 9 bp to a peak of over 18 bp. The wid- ening of the EUR Covered from 22 bp to over 30 bp has been more moderate, but is also no- table. Apart from a possible in- terim consolidation, no reversal of the trend is in sight. The long-term average for EUR Cov- ered is over 40, so further wid- ening cannot be ruled out. Over- all, the German segment of the covered bond universe has been one of the underperformers in recent days/weeks, although spreads are still at the lower end of the valuation range in relative terms. Dutch bonds are also in the same boat. Senior Unsecured The level of activity in the senior unsecured segment remains encouragingly high. This applies to both preferred and non-preferred transactions. Particularly impressive this week was the issue by Société Générale, which successfully placed both a EUR 1bn preferred and a EUR 1.25bn non-preferred tranche - the latter with an 8-year maturity - with investors on Tuesday. Although spreads are generally high, new issue pre- miums are relatively low. The new issues of the previous weeks showed a strong performance, supported by the favourable market sentiment. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3,500% CaFFiL Aaa /AA+/- 0,500bn 20.03.2029 ms +34 bps  13.11.2023 1,300bn ms + 39 area 3,625% Deutsche Bank, S. A. Española Unipersonal Aa1 /-/- 0,500bn 23.11.2026 ms +40 bps 14.11.2023 0,900bn ms + 45 area 3,250% Münchener Hypothekenbank eG Aaa /-/- 0,500bn 23.11.2028 ms +19 bps  15.11.2023 1,540bn ms + 24 area 3,296% Rabobank Aaa /-/- 1,250bn 22.11.2028 ms +20 bps  15.11.2023 2,200bn ms + 26 area 3,375% Sparkasse Hannover - /-/AAA 0,250bn 23.11.2028 ms +30 bps 16.11.2023 not disclosed ms + 30 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Covered Bond issues week of 13 November 2023 Spread widening: no turnaround in sight ASW Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory 1,4 1,0 1,9 1,8 2,3 1,2 1,5 1,5 -0,1 0,8 1,4 6,4 8,0 9,3 9,9 10,0 11,3 7,5 6,9 3,2 5,7 8,4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Austria Covered France Covered Germany Covered Netherlands Covered Norway Covered Sweden Covered UK Covered Italy Covered Portugal Covered Spain Covered Covered change since 3 months monthly change Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 16 November 2023 4 of 7 Outlook: The market environment remains constructive after the end of the reporting season. A few more transac- tions are expected before the window slowly closes as the year-end approaches. If market conditions remain sta- ble, pre-funding transactions could play a greater role. Short news 11/15 Moody's Emerging Markets Outlook 2024: Weak but improving credit conditions point to a more stable outlook for emerging markets in 2024, according to Moody's. Easing financing condi- tions will provide gradual relief, but higher and longer-term interest rates, combined with weak growth and persis- tent inflationary pressures, will continue to weigh on weaker borrowers. While economic considerations will domi- nate, structural changes, reforms and regulation, as well as polarisation, will influence lending. 11/14 The EBA announces timing for publication of 2023 EU-wide transparency exercise and Risk Assessment Report: The European Banking Authority (EBA) announced today that its 2023 Risk Assessment Report and transparency exercise with bank by bank data will be released on Tuesday 12 December 2023 at 18:00 CET. 11/10 ECB recognises Scope Ratings in its ECAF credit assessment framework: The European Central Bank (ECB) has recognised Scope Ratings GmbH as a new external credit assessment institution (ECAI). Scope's ratings are thus recognised within the Eurosystem's Credit Assessment Framework (ECAF). Scope is the first European rating agency to be included in the ECAF of the Eurosystem. 11/10 Fitch Ratings: Rise in cover pool mitigates decline in OBGs: Fitch Ratings says Italian covered bond pro- grammes are experiencing a reduction in available excess spread as a large proportion of fixed-rate loans raised when interest rates were low are now being transferred to cover pools. The agency expects this effect to be tempo- rary as assets are lent at higher rates and Italian issuers actively manage their cover pools. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 4,125% Landesbank Berlin Aa3 /-/- 0,300bn 21.11.2028 ms +100 bps 14.11.2023 0,539bn ms + 120 area 4,125% Société Générale A1 /A/A 1,000bn 21.11.2028 ms +105 bps  15.11.2023 2,600bn ms + 125/130 bp 3m€+230 Bp S-Bank Plc - /BBB/- 0,150bn 23.11.2026 ms +230 bps 16.11.2023 0,270bn 3mE+250Bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Preferred issues week of 13 November 2023 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 4,625% Nykredit Realkredit A/S - /BBB+/A 0,750bn 19.01.2029 ms +155 bps 13.11.2023 1,040bn ms + 175 area 4,375% Bayerische Landesbank A2 /-/A- 0,500bn 21.09.2028 ms +130 bps  14.11.2023 0,600bn ms + 145 area 4,875% Société Générale Baa2 /BBB/A- 1,250bn 21.11.2031 ms +190 bps 15.11.2023 2,900bn ms + 210/215 bp t.b.d. Bank Polska Kasa Opieki S.A. - /BBB/- 0,500bn 23.11.2027 ms +240 bps  16.11.2023 0,500bn ms + 275 area 4,747% Macquarie Group Limited A2 /BBB+/A 0,750bn 23.01.2030 ms +170 bps 16.11.2023 2,000bn ms + 200 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Non-preferred issues week of 13 November 2023 „Markets are soaring to new heights. After a period of gloom in October, we saw another brilliant rally last week. Both equity and bond markets are rallying on the interest rate cut fantasy fuelled by economic data in the US and Europe. The iTraxx indices are now trading at series lows after a 10bp wave of tightening in re- cent trading days. The cash register has been dragged along by these risk-on parameters to much tighter spreads. Trading volumes have recently rebounded on the back of improved sentiment and a large number of new issues.“ Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 16 November 2023 5 of 7 11/9 Banks’ revenues: Banks turn to fee business as EU rate boom looms ends; Europe’s banks are boosting in- vestments in their fee-generating units as they prepare for the expected end to the massive tailwind they’ve been enjoying from interest-rate hikes. Boosting fee income will be “a focus point of our growth initiative” for the next several years, Commerzbank’s Chief Financial Officer Bettina Orlopp told Bloomberg. 11/09 ECB accepts Scope Ratings in its credit assessment framework ECAF: Berlin-based Scope Ratings has become the first European credit rating agency to be approved by the European Central Bank (ECB). Scope will be recognised as a new external rating agency for most securities, the ECB announced today. The integration process into the IT infrastructure of the euro central banks will start immediately. This is expected to take several months. The guardians of the euro intend to announce on their website when exactly the company's ratings will be availa- ble for monetary policy purposes. \* Closing prices from the previous day Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory Market Data (current\*, vs. 1 week, vs. 4 weeks) E-STOXX 600 Banks 161 3,15% 0,15% iBoxx € Cov. Germany 18,0 0,1 1,8 iTraxx Senior Financial 81,4 -6,4 -17,2 10Yr-Yield 2,63 0,02 -0,29 iBoxx € Cov. Bonds 30,1 -0,1 1,2 iBoxx € Supranational 23,3 -1,9 1,3 Swap 10J 3,12 0,02 -0,35 iBoxx € Banks PS 85,8 -6,5 -2,4 iBoxx € Agencies 7,7 -1,8 0,8 iBoxx € Germany -34,27 0,95 6,22 iBoxx Banks NPS 110,4 -10,2 -9,6 iBoxx € Sub-Sov. Germany 14,0 -1,1 1,2 iBoxx € EU 30,22 -2,70 1,97 iBoxx Banks Subordinated 193,5 -12,8 -13,6 iBoxx € Sub-Sovereign 30,9 -1,6 1,7 Leisure tip for the weekend: Hiking at Lake Edersee, Hesse Do you have ideas for leisure tips? We would be happy to receive your suggestions at research@helaba.de. Source: https://www.edersee.com/lust-auf/wandern Active holidays at Lake Edersee - it's also possible on land. A short holiday in the fresh air is often enough to give you new energy and a new lease of life. Families will love the easy walk around the lake or the walks with the ranger, who will tell you exciting stories about life in the forest. Walking through the forest is a little adventure that rewards you with bizarre steep slopes, gnarled oaks and magnificent views. Panoramic paths lead past castles and former monasteries. Find out more: Lake Edersee Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 16 November 2023 6 of 7 Chartbook SSAs, Covered Bonds, Senior Unsecured Senior Unsecured: Primary volumes Senior Unsecured: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 Senior Non-preferred 2023 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Non-preferred 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 11/22 01/23 03/23 05/23 07/23 09/23 11/23 Banks Subordinated Banks Senior Bail-in Banks Senior Preferred Covered Bonds: Primary volumes Covered Bonds: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 2022 2021 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 11/22 01/23 03/23 05/23 07/23 09/23 11/23 EUR Covered Covered Germany SSAs: Primary volumes SSAs: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2022 2021 2023 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 11/22 01/23 03/23 05/23 07/23 09/23 11/23 Sub-Sovereigns Agencies Supranationals Sub-Sovereigns Germany Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 16 November 2023 7 of 7 News from Research & Advisory  Markets & Trends 2024 – Global economy in a transition game  FOCUS on Credit: ESG ratings: Relevance, regulation and responses  Focus on Credit: Primary Market Update Bank Bonds  Focus on Credit: Corporate Schuldschein: Prejudices are out of place"  Focus on Credit: EUR Corporate bonds - Primary market Q3 2023  Video: Sustainable Finance – ICMA & Helaba Talk 2023  Focus on Credit: Social and sustainability bonds: ICMA Principles - the freestyle ele- ment makes all the difference  European banks: An optimistic outlook for 2023 Team of authors Publisher and editorial office Helaba Research & Advisory Editor: Sabrina Miehs Corporate Research & Advisory Responsible: Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chefvolkswirtin/ Head of Research & Advisory Neue Mainzer Str. 52-58 60311 Frankfurt am Main T +49 69 / 91 32 – 20 24 Internet: www.helaba.com Disclaimer This publication has been prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains only non-binding analyses and forecasts of current and future market conditions. The information is based on sources which we consider to be reliable, but for whose accuracy, completeness or up-to-dateness we cannot assume any liability. All state- ments made in this publication are for information purposes only. They must not be understood as an offer or recommendation for investment de- cisions. Here you can subscribe to our newsletter: https://news.helaba.de/research/ Dr. Susanne Knips Senior Credit Analyst T 069/91 32-32 11 Sabrina Miehs, CESGA Head of FI & SSA Research Senior Advisor Sustainable Finance T 069/91 32-48 90 Christian Schmidt Covered Bond & SSA Analyst T 069/91 32-23 88

SSA: EU stands out. Covered Bonds: Environment remains constructive. Senior Unsecured: New issues have performed well in recent weeks. Chart of the Week: Spread widening: No turnaround in sight.