---
title: "SSAs and Financials: Weekly Market Update"
url: https://www.helaba.com/en/ssas-and-financials-weekly-market-update-20
type: dd_research
language: en
updated: 2026-09-28
keywords: Renten, Weekly Market Update_englisch
---

# SSAs and Financials: Weekly Market Update

Focus on: SSAs & Financials 8 Febuary 2024 © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 8 Febuary 2024 1 of 8 Research & Advisory Weekly Market Update Primary market environment: The DAX's record high remains in sight. Hopes of a quick rate cut are fading somewhat. The Fed's Collins sees a cut "later this year" and Barkin remains cautious. Primary markets are currently in good shape and momentum has been strong recently. Singa- pore's first covered issue this year, for example, is setting new price points. Last week the colour scheme of our heat map had already shifted towards red. This trend is continuing, underlin- ing the growing risk aversion. Primary market barometer 11 issuers took advantage of the constructive market environment this week. All issues went through without a hitch. For the time being, there are no signs of a slowdown in primary market activity. The high level of issuing activity in the covered bond segment contin- ues. The order books are still well to very well oversubscribed, but there has been no lasting impact on spreads so far. It remains to be seen to what extent the renewed concerns about the US regional banks will have an impact in the short term. Despite a slight increase in volatility, the market environment for senior un- secured issues remains very construc- tive. Many banks have now reported their quarterly results and we expect primary market activity in this seg- ment to continue to pick up. Covered Bonds Senior Unsecured SSAs Risk trend indicator (heat map): Sentiment deteriorates Relative\* ASW spread change \* ASW levels standardized and 2T-smoothed Sources: LSEG, Helaba Research & Advisory IBOXX EURO 1 day 1 week 4 week 13 weeks 52 weeks 104 weeks Germany 0,01 0,12 0,31 0,54 1,35 2,19 European Union 0,04 0,24 0,24 0,46 0,95 2,91 Germany Covered 0,09 0,20 0,40 0,99 2,53 3,37 EU Covered 0,03 0,06 0,13 0,51 1,70 3,21 Banks senior preferred 0,06 0,25 -0,28 -0,15 0,87 1,68 Banks senior bail-in (SNP) 0,05 0,23 -0,30 -0,12 0,61 1,19 Banks subordinated 0,05 0,24 -0,22 -0,52 0,43 1,05 Supranational 0,04 0,18 0,23 0,54 1,07 2,87 Agencies 0,06 0,12 0,26 0,67 1,58 2,62 Sub-Sovereigns Germany 0,02 0,05 0,13 0,44 0,72 0,43 Sub-Sovereigns 0,04 0,13 0,18 0,52 1,04 1,75 strong middle weak unchanged weak middle strong spread widening\* spread tightening\* Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 8 Febuary 2024 2 of 8 SSAs The EFSF and the State of Lower Saxony opened the very active primary market this week. The for- mer, established in 2010 as part of the Euro Shelter, issued EUR 4bn with a tenor of 10 years. The or- der book was around 2.9 times oversubscribed and the spread tightened by 2 bps to MS+22 bps. This was the sec- ond transaction after a double tranche in early January, and 55% of the EUR 20bn funding target for the year has already been achieved (see also Chart of the Week). The State of Lower Saxony generated an order volume for a 5- year state bond (EUR 1bn) that was roughly in line with the size of the issue. The pricing of MS +6bp remained un- changed compared to the marketing. On Tuesday, Italy's Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP) successfully issued a EUR 750m 6-year social bond. The issue was more than 3.3 times oversubscribed and the spread tightened by 3bp to BTBS+37bp vs. guidance. On the same day, the Latin American development bank CAF (Corp. Adina de Fomento) (EUR 1.5bn, 6 years), the World Bank (EUR 3bn, 10 years, sustain), Société Des Grands Projets (formerly Société du Grand Paris) (EUR 1bn, 25 years, green) and Kommuninvest (EUR 1bn, 3 years) were also active on the primary market. All reached their target without any problems. Société Des Grands Projets stood out as it was 16 times oversubscribed. CADES (EUR 4 billion, 3 years, social) and the Basque Government (EUR 600 million, long, 10 years, sustainable) both had no problems filling their books, with 5.3 and 6.5 times oversubscription respectively. The Land of Baden-Württemberg (EUR 600m, WNG, FRN) and the Land of Berlin (EUR 1bn, 10 years, WNG) also crossed the finishing line today, albeit without any tightening of spreads. Outlook: As in the recent past, the primary market should remain dynamic and continue to offer a mix of jurisdic- tions, maturities and traditional or sustainable bonds. Covered Bonds Despite the high level of issuance in the primary covered bond market in January, sentiment re- mained positive in the first week of February. Nevertheless, the primary market remained quiet at the beginning of the week, in contrast to previous weeks. It was not until Tuesday that NordLB conducted its first pub- lic sector covered bond transaction. With a bookbuilding of EUR 2.2bn, the target volume of EUR 750m was ex- ceeded by a factor of 2.9 and the spread thigthening narrowed by 6bp to a final MS+20bp. On Wednesday, LBBW (EUR 500m, 10 years, WNG) and DBS Bank (EUR 1bn, 2.5 years) were the first Singaporean institutions to success- fully issue this year. In both cases, the order books were significantly oversubscribed (EUR 1.25bn and EUR 3.25bn respectively) and the final spreads tightened by 4bp and 7bp respectively. Today, Santander Totta (EUR 1bn, 7 years), BPCE SFH with a 5-year and a 12-year tranche (EUR 2.25bn) and ING Belgium (EUR 1bn, 7 years) also suc- cessfully launched their issues. Spreads tightened by up to 8 basis points with good to very good oversubscrip- tion. Issuers seem to be finding optimal conditions again. Longer maturities are in demand and new issue premiums are gradually easing. However, there are no signs of significant spread shifts. On the contrary, concerns about US regional banks are starting to affect European markets. Demand for safe havens (Treasuries/Bunds) tends to in- crease. This is accompanied by increased volatility in bund/swap spreads. News is also affecting domestic bank spreads. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 2,625% Niedersachsen - /-/AAA 1,000bn 15.03.2029 ms +6 bps 05.02.2024 1,000bn ms + 6 area 2,875% EFSF AAA /AA/AA- 4,000bn 13.02.2034 ms +22 bps 05.02.2024 11,500bn ms + 24 area 2,750% Kommuninvest I Sverige AB Aaa /AAA/- 1,000bn 12.02.2027 ms +0 bps 06.02.2024 2,100bn ms + 1 area 3,625% Cassa Depositi e Prestiti S.p.A. - /BBB/BBB 0,750bn 13.02.2030 BTPS +37 Bp  06.02.2024 2,000bn BTPS + 47 area 3,625% Corporación Andina de Fomento Aa3 /AA/AA- 1,500bn 13.02.2030 ms +105 bps 06.02.2024 3,700bn ms + 110 area 3,500% Société des grands projets Aa2 /-/AA- 1,000bn 25.06.2049 FRTR +38 bp 06.02.2024 17,000bn FRTR +42 area 2,750% CADES Aa2 /AA/- 4,000bn 24.09.2027 ms +25 bps 07.02.2024 21,100bn FRTR + 27 area 3,400% Basque Government A3 /AA-/A 0,600bn 30.04.2034 ms +14 bps 07.02.2024 3,900bn SPGB + 20 area 2,875% Berlin Aa1 /AAA/AAA 1,000bn 15.02.2034 ms +17 bps 08.02.2024 0,980bn ms + 17 area 6m€ + 0 Bp Baden-Württemberg Aaa /AA+/- 0,600bn 19.08.2027 ms -3 bps 08.02.2024 not disclosed 6m€ -3 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € SSAs issues week of 5 February 2024 Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 8 Febuary 2024 3 of 8 Outlook: Concerns over US regional banks are causing uncertainty and may dampen primary market activity next week. Senior Unsecured Despite increased nervousness, the market environment in the senior unsecured segment remains very constructive. In the course of the week to date, a total of EUR 7.15 billion of senior unsecured material has been issued in 7 transactions. The majority of this, EUR 6bn, was on non-preferred rank. At the begin- ning of the week, ING Groep and BNP Paribas together placed EUR 4 billion of senior non-preferred bonds with medium and long-term maturities. La Banque Postale and Alpha Bank had already issued preferred bonds on Monday, followed by Caixabank with a non-preferred issue. Note the relatively long maturities of up to 11 years and the significant tightening of spreads during the bookbuilding process. All tranches were placed with investors close to fair value or at a low new issue premium. The continued high level of investor liquidity and attractive con- ditions at the long end of the curve continue to support a constructive market environment. Quarterly bank results have been mixed. Profit warnings from US regional banks recently caused a stir; Deutsche Pfandbriefbank pbb tried to provide some clarity yesterday with an early release of results. Some banks, such as BNP Paribas and Nordea, disappointed with their quarterly reports and were quite cautious in their outlook for 2024. On the other hand, many banks reported very good fourth-quarter results and were optimistic about 2024. These include Spanish banks BBVA and Banco Santander, Deutsche Bank and, this week, Italian sector leader UniCredit. (See our weekly market update from last week). The banks enter 2024 from a position of relative strength, as many of them have high capital ratios and risk provisioning buffers, and the interest rate environment has been much more favourable since the interest rate turnaround in mid-2022. (For the outlook to 2024, see our publication Major European banks: Heading into 2024 with strong credit risk buffers from 16 January 2024). Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 2,875% NORD/LB Aa1 /-/- 0,750bn 14.05.2027 ms +20 bps 06.02.2024 2,200bn ms + 26 area 3,000% LBBW Aaa /-/- 0,500bn 16.02.2034 ms +34 bps 07.02.2024 1,250bn ms + 38 area 3,209% DBS Bank Ltd. Aaa /-/AAA 1,000bn 19.08.2026 ms +29 bps 07.02.2024 3,250bn ms + 36 area 3,000% BPCE SFH Aaa /AAA/- 1,500bn 20.02.2029 ms +36 bps 08.02.2024 3,600bn ms +44 area 3,125% BPCE SFH Aaa /AAA/- 0,750bn 20.02.2036 ms +51 bps 08.02.2024 1,600bn ms +56 area 3,250% Banco Santander Totta, S.A. Aaa /-/AA- 1,000bn 15.02.2031 ms +67 bps 08.02.2024 2,600bn ms + 73 area 3,000% ING Belgium SA/NV Aaa /-/AAA 1,000bn 15.02.2031 ms +38 bps 09.02.2024 2,600bn ms +45 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Covered Bond issues week of 5 February 2024 „Credit markets are currently in a nervous state. Interest rate volatility remains high and the iTraxx indices are bouncing back from their lows. Although cash indices narrowed considerably in January, the picture is now turning in the opposite direction on a weekly basis. The rally is showing signs of fatigue. Since the middle of last week there has also been negative news for US regional banks. The outperformers in both debt classes were Italian bank bonds, supported by very strong quarterly earnings. The underperformers are German non-preferred bonds and US HoldCo bonds.” Comment from the Helaba trading floor „Concerns about US regional banks are back. As was the case last year, the market is once again focusing on second-tier US banks. The issue has been on our minds for about a week now, as reports of major losses in bank stocks have increasingly dominated events. The current high point is the collapse of New York Commu- nity Bancorp, which has seen its share price fall by double-digit percentages.". Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 8 Febuary 2024 4 of 8 Outlook: Many banks have already reported their quarterly results and are now able to issue bonds again. The funding needs of European banks will remain high in 2024, particularly due to long maturities and declining cus- tomer deposits (see our Primary Market Update EUR Benchmark Bank Bonds dated 11 January 2024. We expect primary market activity to pick up further in the coming days. Concerns about US regional banks are back. As was the case last year, the market is once again focusing on sec- ond-tier US banks. The issue has been on our minds for about a week now, as reports of major losses in bank stocks have increasingly dominated events. The current high point is the collapse of New York Community Ban- corp, which has seen its share price fall by double-digit percentages. Chart of the Week Although only six weeks into 2024, the five largest issuers are making good progress towards their funding targets. The EFSF, in particular, has already issued 55% (EUR 11bn) of its full-year issuance target. This compares with EUR 6bn in the same period last year. According to Silke Weiss, Head of Funding and In- vestor Relations at the EFSF, the organisation is satisfied with the results and the market condi- tions. Especially against the backdrop of various uncertain- ties related to various elections this year or geopolitical tensions. The French CADES is also well on its way with 40% of its funding target. Unlike the other issuers, the EU's targets only cover the first half of the year. During this period, a total of 6 syndicated bonds (next date: 9-23 February) and 7 auctions are planned. Issuer Date Issuer Date CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG-REG 2/9 ABN AMRO BANK NV-CVA 2/14 SPAREBANKEN SOR 2/9 COMMERZBANK AG 2/15 BPCE SA 2/9 NATWEST GROUP PLC 2/16 Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Reporting dates of selected banks Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3,500% La Banque Postale A2 /A+/A+ 0,750bn 13.06.2030 ms +90 bps 05.02.2024 1,300bn ms + 120 - 125 area 5,000% Alpha Bank SA Ba3 /BB-/- 0,400bn 12.05.2030 5,125% 05.02.2024 0,950bn 5,50% area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Preferred issues week of 5 February 2024 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 4,125% CaixaBank, S.A. Baa3 /BBB/BBB+ 1,250bn 09.02.2032 ms +150 bps  05.02.2024 3,000bn ms + 185 area 4,095% BNP Paribas SA Baa1 /A-/A+ 1,500bn 13.02.2034 ms +145 bps 06.02.2024 3,600bn ms + 175-180 area 3,875% ING Groep N.V. Baa1 /A-/A+ 1,250bn 12.08.2028 ms +125 bps 06.02.2024 3,400bn ms + 155 area 4,000% ING Groep N.V. Baa1 /A-/A+ 1,250bn 12.02.2034 ms +140 bps  06.02.2024 2,400bn ms + 170 area t.b.d. Svenska Handelsbanken AB A2 /A/AA 0,750bn 15.02.2034 ms +110 bps  08.02.2024 2,100bn ms +140 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Non-preferred issues week of 5 February 2024 Decent pace of the major SSA issuers Annual issue targets and issues already made in EUR billion Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM, Helaba Research & Advisory, as of 2/7/24 75 95 60 20 20 12,6 10 9 8 11 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 EU\* KfW EIB Cades EFSF Funding target 2024 already issued Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 8 Febuary 2024 5 of 8 Short news 2/8 S&P Capital IQ: Australia's major banks are facing increasing credit risk as risky loans have risen sharply in 2023: According to S&P Capital IQ, risky loans at Australia's four largest banks, and therefore credit risk, have increased due to higher interest rates. S&P Global Market Intelligence data shows that Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank Ltd, ANZ Group Holdings Ltd and Westpac Banking Corp's total stage 2 loans, which are classified under International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9) ac- counting standards, rose to 17.93% in the 12 months to 30 September 2023 from 15.87% a year earlier. Stage 2 loans under IFRS 9 are loans for which the credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition. 2/7 SRB with list of consultations and requests to the industry: The Single Resolution Board (SRB) has pub- lished the list of all public consultations, data requests, and deliverables stemming from the Expectations for Banks (EfB) planned for 2024. This disclosure marks an important milestone in the SRB’s efforts to cater to the in- dustry’s wish for more predictability and transparency. 2/7 Europe’s new AI Act threatens supervisory ‘chaos’ for banks: Policy insiders heard by Risk.net say EU banks could find themselves in a supervisory turf war because the recently agreed Artificial Intelligence Act will create new regulators purely for the technology. 2/6 BDB publication on Sustainable Finance for medium-sized institutions: With a brand new publication, the Association of German Banks (BdB) aims to guide small and medium-sized banks when it comes to sustainable finance. There are many new rules and standards at the European level and this could pose major challenges for small and medium-sized banks by making implementation complex. 2/6 AT1 bond issuance: UBS Group plans to sell billions more in Additional Tier 1 bonds over the next few years after a blockbuster deal last year that heralded a revival for the market for risky bank debt. The Swiss lender’s 2024 funding plan envisages issuing up to $2 billion equivalent of AT1s, according to Bloomberg. Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 8 Febuary 2024 6 of 8 Market Data (current\*, vs. 1 week, vs. 4 weeks) E-STOXX 600 Banks 168 -1,77% -1,72% iBoxx € Cov. Germany 27,3 1,0 3,4 iTraxx Senior Financial 71,6 1,4 3,0 10Yr-Yield 2,30 0,14 0,09 iBoxx € Cov. Bonds 36,0 -0,3 0,9 iBoxx € Supranational 30,2 1,1 2,1 Swap 10J 2,70 0,13 0,04 iBoxx € Banks PS 83,5 6,2 -6,8 iBoxx € Agencies 14,6 0,3 1,7 iBoxx € Germany -26,18 2,15 3,73 iBoxx Banks NPS 108,1 6,8 -8,8 iBoxx € Sub-Sov. Germany 21,6 -0,3 1,6 iBoxx € EU 37,50 2,44 2,89 iBoxx Banks Subordinated 172,9 10,1 -9,4 iBoxx € Sub-Sovereign 37,7 0,5 1,7 Leisure tip for the weekend: Carnival Monday in Düsseldorf Do you have ideas for leisure tips? We would be happy to receive your suggestions at research@helaba.de. Sources: www.nrz.de/www.karvneval-in-duesseldorf.de The Rose Monday Parade is the highlight of the Düsseldorf Carnival. The Rose Monday Parade is expected to start on 12 February at around 12.24pm on Corneliusstraße in the Bilk district. From there, around 8,000 participants will make their way towards Düssel- dorf city centre. A total of 85 foot groups, 110 floats and 30 brass bands will take part. Find out more: Carnival Monday Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 8 Febuary 2024 7 of 8 Chartbook SSAs, Covered Bonds, Senior Unsecured Senior Unsecured: Primary volumes Senior Unsecured: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: LSEG, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 Senior Non-preferred 2023 Senior Preferred 2024 Senior Preferred 2024 Senior Non-preferred 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 02/23 04/23 06/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 02/24 Banks Subordinated Banks Senior Bail-in Banks Senior Preferred Covered Bonds: Primary volumes Covered Bonds: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: LSEG, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 2022 2024 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 02/23 04/23 06/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 02/24 EUR Covered Covered Germany SSAs: Primary volumes SSAs: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: LSEG, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2022 2024 2023 -10 0 10 20 30 40 -10 0 10 20 30 40 02/23 04/23 06/23 08/23 10/23 12/23 02/24 Sub-Sovereigns Agencies Supranationals Sub-Sovereigns Germany Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 8 Febuary 2024 8 of 8 News from Research & Advisory  Focus on Credit – MayorEuropean Banks: Heading into 2024 with strong credit risk buffers  Focus on: Credit - Primary market update bank bonds  Focus on: Credit – Primary market update corporate bonds  Focus on: Credit – Primary market update Schuldschein  Focus on: Credit – European banks: The sharpening contours of ESG disclosure  Markets & Trends 2024 – Global economy in a transition game  FOCUS on Credit: ESG ratings: Relevance, regulation and responses  Video: Sustainable Finance – ICMA & Helaba Talk 2023  Focus on Credit: Social and sustainability bonds: ICMA Principles - the freestyle ele- ment makes all the difference Please feel free to contact us Publisher and editorial office Helaba Research & Advisory Editor: Sabrina Miehs, CESGA Corporate Research & Advisory Responsible: Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chefvolkswirtin/ Head of Research & Advisory Neue Mainzer Str. 52-58 60311 Frankfurt am Main T +49 69 / 91 32 – 20 24 Internet: www.helaba.com Disclaimer This publication has been prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains only non-binding analyses and forecasts of current and future market conditions. The information is based on sources which we consider to be reliable, but for whose accuracy, completeness or up-to-dateness we cannot assume any liability. All state- ments made in this publication are for information purposes only. They must not be understood as an offer or recommendation for investment de- cisions. Here you can subscribe to our newsletter: https://news.helaba.de/research/ Dr. Susanne Knips Senior Credit Analyst T 069/91 32-32 11 Sabrina Miehs, CESGA Head of FI & SSA Research Senior Advisor Sustainable Finance T 069/91 32-48 90 Christian Schmidt Covered Bond & SSA Analyst T 069/91 32-23 88

SSAs: No end in sight to buoyant primary market activity. Covered bonds: High issuance so far without lasting impact on spreads. Senior Unsecured: Market environment remains highly constructive. Chart of the week: Decent pace of major SSA issuers.