---
title: "Focus on Credit: Primary market update on EUR benchmark bank bonds Q1 2026"
url: https://www.helaba.com/en/focus-credit-primary-market-update-eur-benchmark-bank-bonds-q1-2026
type: dd_research
language: en
updated: 2026-09-28
keywords: Credit, Credit Special
---

# Focus on Credit: Primary market update on EUR benchmark bank bonds Q1 2026

1 by 6 © Helaba | Research | 2 April 2026 EUR benchmark issues\* Q1 2026: Holding up well thanks to a strong start to the year EUR benchmark issuance volume (fixed and floating rate, covered and uncovered), EUR billion 400 350 400 350 300 300 Q4 250 250 Q3 200 200 150 100 50 Q2 Q1 150 100 50 0 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 \* Issue volume of at least EUR 500 million Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM, Helaba Research In focus: Credit 2 April 2026 EUR Benchmark Bank Bonds: Primary Market Q1 2026 Senior unsecured issues hit the brakes at full speed Dr Susanne Knips Senior Credit Analyst T 069/91 32- 32 11 The volume issued in the first quarter of 2026 on the primary market for senior unsecured bank bonds in the EUR benchmark format still reached around EUR 76 billion. Despite the war with Iran that broke out at the end of February, this was thus only 8% below the record volume for the same period last year and a remarkable 26% above the average for opening quarters over the last ten years. The high oversubscription ratios of nearly 3x on average demonstrate the very strong investor appetite for these transactions. By the end of the ninth calendar week, the primary market in on track to set a record in this segment before coming to an abrupt standstill. The strong primary market activity in the first few weeks was driven primarily by the high maturities in 2026. These are attributable, among other things, to the fact that the category of Senior Non-Preferred (SNP) bonds, introduced following the financial market crisis, is now fully established and has settled into a balanced rhythm between new issues and maturities. The share of SNP bonds in the total issuance volume reached a high of 70% in the first quarter of 2026. This more than met our expectation that the share of SNP issues would be well over half of total issues (see Primary Market Update of 5 January 2026). Furthermore, banks from the US and the UK continue to make extensive use of the favourable refinancing conditions available to them on the EUR market. Their share of new issue volume stood at a high 31% in the first quarter. By contrast, the share of French banks – some of which are traditionally among the most active players due to their extensive capital market activities – fell to 11%. We are lowering our estimate for the volume of new issues of senior unsecured bank bonds in the EUR benchmark format for the full year 2026 by EUR 20 billion to EUR 210 billion. This now represents a slight decline compared with the record volume of EUR 220 billion in 2025. We justify this Helaba Research In Focus: Credit – Primary Market Update on Bank Bonds 2 by 6 © Helaba | Research | 2 April 2026 with the pause in the primary market for senior bonds due to the war in Iran, which has now been ongoing for almost five weeks. In our economic forecasts, however, we do not anticipate a protracted conflict. The substantial maturities remain the primary factor pointing to another strong year for issuance. These will increase slightly again in 2026 and remain at a high level in 2027. For SNP issues, regulatory requirements remain a key factor. Whilst the minimum quotas have been met, high maturities are now also the main driver for issuance plans in this sector. We expect the share of SNP issues to remain well over half of total issuance. The introduction of a general depositor preference across Europe should have only a limited impact on the credit quality of preferred bonds. However, institutions could counter this by issuing further preferred securities. It will, however, take until mid-2028 for the new regulations to be implemented in the individual Member States (see our publication ‘General Depositor Preference adopted on 27 March 2026). Geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties are likely to continue to create a volatile capital market environment. Given the high volume of maturities, issuers are keen to take advantage of open capital market windows for transactions. Getting the timing right remains a challenge. Covered bonds: Flying by sight “Covered bonds are reliable”, “Covered bonds are stable”, “Covered bonds are bad- weather products” – frequently cited attributes that the covered bond market had to live up to in the first quarter. Florian Hillenbrand Senior Covered Bond Analyst T 069/91 32-40 79 The covered bond market got off to a strong start in the new year. The significantly negative net issuance volume in the fourth quarter of 2025 apparently created considerable investment pressure on the investor side. As is customary in the first quarter, deal flow was strong, reaching EUR 28 billion in January and just under EUR 24 billion in February. Unusual, however, were the oversubscription ratios in the primary market, which reached up to 10x for individual transactions. Equally unusual were the many negative signs ahead of the new issues and the nevertheless strong after-market performance. The first storm clouds gathered during the World Economic Forum in Davos with US President Trump’s speech. The final change in the weather then came on 28 February with the start of the war in Iran. For just under two weeks, the covered bond primary market ground to a halt before the Royal Bank of Canada reopened the market. Against this backdrop, the somewhat meagre EUR 11.5 billion placed in March should be seen as evidence of the attributes mentioned above. In fact, the market shift materialised only to a very limited extent through widening spreads. In such market phases, the latter rarely originates from the low-volume secondary market, but is usually triggered by repricing waves in the primary market. However, by accepting lower oversubscription ratios, widening trends have so far been largely cushioned. For the time being, the lower issuance volumes do not appear to pose a problem from a funding perspective either. The flexible applications of covered bonds, particularly as retained transactions, provide further evidence of the attributes mentioned above. We see the increased use of retained covered bonds as a potential ‘safety valve’ to relieve pressure on the primary market. This approach could – at the cost of a lower level of long-term financing – also help to keep spreads in the primary and secondary markets under control. From the start of the year until 28 February – the day the US military operation began – just under EUR 14.5 billion in retained covered bonds was issued across all currencies. In the four weeks that followed, the figure was a good EUR 36 billion. In Focus: Credit – Primary Market Update on Bank Bonds 3 by 6 © Helaba | Research | 2 April 2026 Q1 2026: Braked at full speed Cumulative EUR benchmark issuance volume, EUR billion 250 Q1 H1 9M FY 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM, Helaba Research Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM, Helaba Research ES 8% NL 7% 6% GB 11% CA 6% IT FR 11% JP 4% DE 4% CH 5% US 20% Other 18% US banks are taking advantage of the favourable interest rate environment EUR benchmark issuance volume Q1 2026 by country 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Q1 2026 Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM, Helaba Research 0 0 50 50 100 100 150 150 200 200 1Y-3Y 3Y-5Y 5Y-7Y 7Y-10Y 10Y-15Y 250 250 Maturities of 3 to 7 years dominate EUR benchmark issuance volume by maturity, EUR billion 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Q1 2026 \* Moody’s rating at issuance Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM, Helaba Research 0 0 50 50 100 100 150 150 200 200 250 AA A BBB BB Other 250 Rating mix continues to show a positive trend EUR benchmark issuance volume by rating\*, EUR billion Overall, it can be stated that, given the €63 billion in new issues in the EUR benchmark covered bond market, we are still within the range of our expectations. Given the increased intensity and duration of event risks, we still expect the figure to reach our originally forecast EUR 162.5 billion, but would no longer describe this as a rather conservative estimate, as we did in November. The emerging trend towards greater use of retained covered bonds could have a negative impact on issuance volumes but a positive one on spreads. 1. Senior unsecured bonds In Focus: Credit – Primary Market Update on Bank Bonds 4 by 6 © Helaba | Research | 2 April 2026 Proportion of variable-rate bonds on the decline again EUR benchmark issuance volume by coupon type, EUR billion 250 Fix ed Floating 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Q1 2026 Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM, Helaba Research 150 150 150 100 150 100 0 0 00 50 00 50 00 Share of non-preferred rises to 70% Extensive use of regulatory call options EUR benchmark issuance volume by seniority, EUR billion 250 Non-preferred Preferred 250 EUR benchmark issuance volume by repayment type, EUR billion 250 Bullet Fixed-to-float 250 200 200 200 200 100 100 50 50 50 50 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM, Helaba Research 2024 2025 Q1 2026 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM, Helaba Research 2025 Q1 2026 Proportion of green issues remains virtually stable Maturities\* will peak in 2026 EUR benchmark issuance volume by ESG criteria, EUR billion Classic Green Social Sustain EUR benchmark maturity volume, billion EUR 300 3 250 2 12% 12% 24% 25% 26% 27% 23% 21% 250 250 200 2 200 200 150 1 100 100 100 1 50 50 0 0 150 150 50 50 0 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Q1 2026 Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM, Helaba Research 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 \* Slightly different classification compared to new issues Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research In Focus: Credit – Primary Market Update on Bank Bonds 5 by 6 © Helaba | Research | 2 April 2026 2. Covered bonds Q1/26: EUR 63 billion in line with expectations Maturity volumes on an upward trend Cumulative EUR benchmark issuance volume, EUR billion 240 Q1 H1 9M FY 240 EUR benchmark maturity volume by country, EUR billion 45 2026 2027 2028 40 45 40 35 30 35 30 160 160 25 25 120 120 20 20 15 15 80 80 10 10 40 40 5 5 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research \* ‘26 €156 billion, ‘27 €183 billion, ‘28 €164 billion Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research French covered bonds account for the largest share Maturity selection slightly longer again EUR benchmark issuance volume Q1 2026 by country OTH; FRA ; 22% 21% EUR benchmark issuance volume by maturity, % 100 2 3-4 5 6–9 10 80 60 11+ FIN ; 4% GBR ; 4% GER ; 40 ITA ; 4% 21% 20 CAN ; 6% NLD ; 6% AUS;6% Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research NOR ; 6% 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research 2026 Aaa ratings still the norm Sustainable covered bonds: somewhat out of focus EUR benchmark issuance volume by rating\*, % Issuance volume by ESG criteria and other, EUR billion \*Moody’s rating at issuance Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research In Focus: Credit – Primary Market Update on Bank Bonds 6 by 6 © Helaba | Research | 2 April 2026 You can subscribe to our newsletter here: https://news.helaba.de/research/ Publisher and editorial team Helaba Research Editorial Team Dr Stefan Mitropoulos Responsible Dr Gertrud Rosa Traud Chief Economist / Head of Research Neue Mainzer Str. 52-58 60311 Frankfurt am Main Tel. 069/91 32-20 24 Website: http://www.helaba.de Disclaimer This publication has been compiled with the utmost care. However, it contains only non-binding analyses and forecasts regarding current and future market conditions. The information is based on sources which we consider reliable, but for whose accuracy, completeness or timeliness we cannot accept any liability. All information provided in this publication is for information purposes only. It must not be construed as an offer or recommendation for investment decisions.

The primary market for senior unsecured EUR benchmark bonds slowed abruptly due to the Iran conflict, following record activity at the start of the year. Covered bonds defied the storm clouds and ensured a stable deal flow. However, retained covered bonds pose a downside risk in terms of volumes, but stabilize spreads.