---
title: "Markets and Trends 2021: A helping hand from Nanny"
url: https://www.helaba.com/en/markets-and-trends-2021-helping-hand-nanny
type: dd_research
language: en
updated: 2026-09-28
keywords: Kapitalmärkte im Überblick, Kapitalmarktausblick, Markets and Trends
---

# Markets and Trends 2021: A helping hand from Nanny

Research Markets and Trends 2021 A helping hand from Nanny Values with impact. 2 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chief Economist / Head of Research Editorial It is precisely in uncertain times like these that the question of “who is going to lead us into the future?” takes on a special signiﬁcance. The fact that so many things are unclear is not only reﬂected in economic indicators. In 2020, “lost” was chosen as the German youth word of the year – in the sense of not only being unaware but rather of no longer understanding what is going on. Do you feel the same way as young people do? The current situation is arguably one of the most difﬁcult we have ever faced. We have not yet overcome this crisis and we simply do not know how long it will take. 3 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Dear Readers, Although we do not know what the future will look like, what we can do is design scenarios and assign probabilities to them. For 2021, we have asked a question that is simple and sophisticated at the same time: Who is going to lead us into the future? Will it be a nanny, a poltergeist or an avatar? The Covid-19 pandemic has transformed the world we live in. Measures to protect public health have been enacted that hardly anybody would have previously imagined were possible: curfews, mandatory face masks, restrictions on social contacts, bans on alcohol, accommodation and assembly and much more – in other words, measures that encroach on our individual rights and freedoms. “The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge.” Stephen Hawking (1942 – 2018) To stabilise the economy, however, governments have also implemented a raft of supportive measures to help companies and employees, including extending furlough schemes, tax cuts and tax relief, emergency aid, bridging loans and guarantees. The unprecedented interventionist policies of governments and central banks have steadied demand and the ﬁnancial markets, but have not been able to prevent a deep recession. Yawning gulf between countries The choice of measures varies greatly from one country to another. Some have opted to impose extreme restrictions and controls on public life for a longer period of time, while others favour shorter and more targeted lockdowns but have made more frequent use of this instrument. Sweden has taken an approach of enacting less severe restrictions and making recommendations, with a focus on individual responsibility. Only those who are most at risk from the virus are being explicitly protected. Every country is providing generous ﬁnancial and monetary policy support. Nanny wanted In other words, countries want to direct the behaviour of their citi- zens while simultaneously helping them with supportive measures. This strategy is typically described as educating the populace. There are different areas of life in which educational work is carried out by a variety of persons or institutions with the respec- tive authority. It starts at home with a child’s parents, continues with educational establishments, pastoral care, social work and much more. Then there is the nanny or governess – someone many families would have been delighted to have during the strict lockdowns. Nannies are well qualiﬁed and have made it their mission to prepare a child for a self-determined life with the utmost care and attention. In the world of musicals, this subject achieved great success with “Mary Poppins”, although she employed unique educational methods. Her magical powers and constructive attitude enabled her to ﬁnd solutions, even in seemingly hopeless situations. 4 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba A nanny would also seem like the right person to guide the adult world through the current crisis. But what are the right measures to take and when should they be taken? “When the world turns upside down, the best thing to do is turn right along with it.” Mary Poppins Different educational approaches In the academic world, there is no single method of education. The various approaches differ according to the under- lying objectives and norms. However, the crucial factor in determining the success of an educational approach is the attitude of the educator. Yet, cultures also have an impact on education, with the result that it may vary from one country to another and change over time. The components of education can be classiﬁed according to numerous charac- teristics, ranging from welfare, to support, restriction, control and overprotection. The latter is just as dangerous as neglect by those charged with providing care. The same also applies to economies: There are consequences to both a laissez-faire attitude as well as a policy of overreaching state paternalism, although the second approach has been steadily gaining in popularity for some time. The risks of overprotection In the short term, it may be appropriate for the state to considerably expand its intervention in the economy. However, it harbours medium to long-term risks, not only for the freedom of the individual but also for economic dynamism. In view of changing demographics, it is essential for a country to have a large and modern capital stock as well as a high labour productivity, not least in Germany. That is why voters should pay close atten- tion to the positions each party adopts in the next German federal election campaign in 2021. Who is prepared to put the long- term wellbeing of the country and its people ahead of short-term political gain? The basic principles of a good education should be to prepare a child for a self-determined life. In terms of trade and competition policy, it currently appears that, in many places, the governess is increasingly taking on a Chinese complexion. In China, the success- ful response to the pandemic to date is interpreted as further proof of the superi- ority of its own system. Criticism from abroad is increasingly seen as the envy of those who do not beneﬁt from the wise leadership of the Communist Party. Even in the West, more and more politicians are inclined to approve of the Chinese style of education. To ensure that a child can stand on its own two feet at some point requires a well-balanced combination of care and support on the one hand and control, bans and restrictions on the other. Fortunately, at least some economic stimulus packages contain all of these features. Negative scenario: Poltergeist In our negative alternative scenario, uncertainty becomes even greater. The things we fear most are precisely those that we cannot see – a phenomenon embodied by the poltergeist. Though amorphous, it torments houses and their inhabitants. In the same way, the world economy continues to be plagued by an almost invisible virus, should no vaccine be found. In addition, other sources of trouble could heighten people’s insecurity, such as pro- tectionism and nationalism. The fear of these malevolent forces alone may plunge the global economy back into recession. 5 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Positive scenario: Avatar Not all change these days is bad. The digital revolution is unlocking new oppor- tunities that still seem inconceivable to many people. The new – and from today’s perspective artiﬁcial – world has the poten- tial to not only facilitate medical progress and ease the burden of many types of work, but also to enable sustainable and productive economic activity. The avatar symbolises a successful struc- tural transformation, the emergence of innovative ideas and their practical applica- tion. In this scenario, the global economy recovers very quickly from the crisis. Inno- vations give a signiﬁcant boost to progress and growth as well as equity markets. We may not know a lot, but we can learn something new every day – if we allow ourselves to. With this in mind, I wish you a healthy and successful 2021. Yours Chief Economist / Head of Research 10 % Avatar 20 % Poltergeist 70 % Nanny helaba.com/int/information-for/research 6 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba 1 2 Editorial Page 2 Baseline scenario Nanny (70 %) Page 8 Interest rates and bonds ■ The power on the River Main 14 Covered Bonds ■ Quality matters 16 Credits ■ The new normal 17 Equities ■ Dependent on support 18 Gold ■ Politically protected 20 Real estate ■ Not completely immune 22 Currencies ■ Dollar slide to continue 24 Italy ■ Help from Brussels 34 Spain ■ No common strategy 35 Sweden ■ Going it alone 37 Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary ■ Regulations – no thanks! 38 United Kingdom ■ Liberated from the EU nanny 40 Countries in the baseline scenario Page 26 European Union ■ The next generation 27 Germany ■ Emerging stronger from the crisis 28 ■ Hesse, Thuringia, North Rhine- Westphalia and Brandenburg: keep your cool! 31 France ■ Uncertainty abounds 33 Content 7 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba 3 4 Negative scenario Poltergeist (20 %) Page 48 Positive scenario Avatar (10 %) Page 51 United States ■ Uncle Sam will take care of it 42 Japan ■ Ballooning national debt 44 China ■ Proﬁ teer from the crisis 45 Russia ■ Development projects postponed 46 Brazil ■ Pre-election goodies expected 47 ■ Tables of forecasts in the baseline scenario 54 ■ Helaba adresses 56 ■ Imprint 58 Editorial date: 5 November 2020 8 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Nanny (70 %) 1 9 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Baseline scenario A helping hand from Nanny (70 %) As the Covid-19 pandemic has unfolded, governments the world over have used a variety of measures in an attempt to inﬂuence the behaviour of their people and, at the same time, to support them. This is what we commonly understand by education – the carrot and the stick. The nanny state will still be active in 2021. We assign a probability of 70 % to this scenario. Just as the global economy began to recover from the escalating trade dispute of 2018 and 2019, the Covid-19 pandemic broke out. As a result of this massive shock, in 2020 the global economy has shrunk more than at any time since the end of World War II. Despite a second wave, whose impact is different from region to region, a global economic recovery has taken hold. It should lead to output growing sharply in 2021. At 5 %, Germany will probably record its highest rate of growth since the early 1990s. However, as in most countries, average performance over the period 2020 / 2021 is likely to be rather sluggish. Amid a very brief but steep contraction, governments and central banks stabilised the ﬁnancial markets and demand by intervening on a historic scale. Since then, uncertainty has diminished to some extent. Monetary and ﬁscal policy will help to mitigate the conse- quences of the shock, such as corporate bankruptcies and unem- ployment, even as the recovery gains momentum in 2020 / 2021. In this baseline scenario, we assume that there will be no repeat of the nationwide, week-long and complete lockdowns and that a vaccine will be developed by the ﬁrst half of 2021. As in 2020, the quality of healthcare systems and, more generally, the way the pandemic is handled by policymakers and society at large will determine which economies perform worse – and which perform better. The rise of the nanny Up to now, Germany has fared better during the crisis than many of its neighbours. As an export-oriented country, however, it is dependent on how the principles of the international division of labour and the free market will develop in the future. Both are currently under threat, most notably from state intervention. The United Kingdom would be hit harder by tariff barriers after Brexit than the rest of the European Union, but they would also pose a threat to Germany’s export industry. Of greater importance is what happens next to the global trade order, dealing with rising levels of debt (including in the private sector), climate change or the digital transformation. In each case, the state has the power to play a positive or negative role. In trade and competition policy, the governess is taking on an increasingly Chinese complexion in many places. Some politicians seem to believe that we need to become more like China in this respect – which is not necessarily a good sign. The share of the economic “cake” claimed by the state has grown signiﬁcantly during the crisis – partly because the size of the whole cake has shrunk. For governments to sustain this situation in the long run would necessitate tax increases. In the medium term, we can expect a reduction in ballooning deﬁcits to more “normal” levels. There is a risk that we could see a ratchet effect: Just as 10 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba public spending ratios in G7 coun tries did not return to their pre-2008 levels after the global ﬁnancial crisis, they may move up yet another notch in the “new normal” post-Covid world – perhaps even signiﬁcantly so. Finger-wagging (not only) from the Eurotower Central banks display a particularly marked tendency when it comes to enlarging their own spheres of inﬂuence. Unelected tech- nocrats have expanded their power by following the slogan of “we know best!”. In a process that is best described as “mission creep”, central bankers unilater- ally claim authority over new areas of responsibility such as social or environ- mental policy. Meanwhile, the core task of monetary policy – maintaining price stability – is increasingly relegated to the sidelines. 2021 will provide a good exam- ple of this phenomenon: despite a notice- able rise in inﬂation rates, central banks will not unwind their expansionary stance and, in some cases, will go even further. In addition, monetary policymakers seem to be handing governments a carte blanche to implement additional debt-ﬁnanced measures with their zero or negative inter- est rate policy. Everywhere you look at the moment, money is being spent as if it grew on trees, adorned with euphemisms such as “Recovery and Resilience Facility”. “Redistribution Fund” just doesn’t have the same ring to it. Safety versus dynamic growth In the short term, it may be appropriate for the state to considerably expand its intervention in the economy. But it har- bours medium to long-term risks, not only for the freedom of the individual but also for economic dynamism. In view of chang- ing demographics, it is essential for a country to have a large and modern capital stock as well as high labour productivity, not least in Germany. Sources: Datastream, Helaba Research Uncertainty recedes lobal co om c ol c cer a e \*Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, based on PPP-adjusted GDP weightings. Newspapers reports, among other sources, are included in the calculation. Na va ar ol er e s ro ea sovere eb cr s s re re ere m r m elec e res e ov a em c a c al eco om c cr s s 0 00 0 200 2 0 00 0 00 0 0 00 0 200 2 0 00 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 11 2 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2 22 Selected forecasts 2021 GDP growth Inflation Q1– Q4 3M Euribor –0 0 –0 –0 –0 0 10y Bunds –0 0 –0 0 –0 20 –0 20 DAX, e val e 00 00 00 000 0 1.9 GDP growth Inflation Q1– Q4 Repo rate –0 –0 –0 –0 US dollar/euro 20 20 2 2 EURO STOXX 50, e val e 20 0 20 0 6.3 1.4 GDP growth Inflation Q1– Q4 Federal Funds Rate (mid-point) 0 0 0 0 10y Treasuries, % 0 00 00 20 S&amp;P 500, e val e 00 0 00 0 3.8 3.3 Euro area Germany USA 11 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba A rising burden of regulation, more bureaucracy, increasing tax and public spending ratios – these are not recipes for a dynamic and productive economy. If governments are too generous in miti- gating economic disruption, e.g. by extending all of their support measures until the end of 2021, they risk cementing existing structures and this could lead to the rise of “zombie companies”. “Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change.” Stephen Hawking (1942 – 2018) Many structural elements are in danger of becoming obsolete at an unusually rapid pace anyway, for example as a result of attempts to contain global warming or behavioural shifts triggered by the pan- demic – especially in respect of digitisa- tion. This would replicate a mistake made by Japan in the 1990s and by the EU after the 2008 / 2009 ﬁnancial crisis. At that time, inevitable structural change was either blocked or delayed out of concern for short-term costs (e. g. in the form of job cuts). This is precisely the direction that a zero interest-rate environment and an extension of government support schemes would take the economy now. They prevent resources from being diverted from yesterday’s industries to those of tomorrow. A strict but good nanny, on the other hand, recognises the need for her charges to shed some tears now and again Selected forecasts 2021 GDP growth Inflation Q1–Q4 3M Euribor – 0 0 – 0 – 0 – 0 0 10y Bunds – 0 0 – 0 0 – 0 20 – 0 20 DAX, e val e 00 00 00 000 0 1.9 GDP growth Inflation Q1– Q4 Repo rate –0 –0 – 0 – 0 US dollar/euro 20 20 2 2 EURO STOXX 50, e val e 20 0 20 0 6.3 1.4 GDP growth Inflation Q1–Q4 Federal Funds Rate (mid-point) 0 0 0 0 10y Treasuries, % 0 00 00 20 S&amp;P 500, e val e 00 0 00 0 3.8 3.3 Euro area Germany USA 12 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba in the short term – after all, it is in their own long-term interest! Overview of forecasts in the baseline scenario In a rebound following the deep recession of 2020, economic growth in Germany and the euro area in 2021 will be very strong at 5 % and more than 6 %, respectively. The US economy is set to expand by almost 4 %. Inﬂation will pick up, not least as a consequence of a sharp rise in oil prices over the course of the year. However, euro area inﬂation will remain below the ECB’s target of 1.4 %. In Germany, consumer prices will climb by around 2 %, while in the United States inﬂation is likely to exceed 3 % on average over the year. Under normal circumstances, bonds would be a risky investment in this environment. An economic recovery, rising commodity prices, higher inﬂation rates and a consid- erably higher volume of bonds on the market due to skyrocketing government debt will combine to form a toxic cocktail. However, central banks – unlike virolo- gists – already appear to have an antidote to this threat. As a result of their purchase programmes, they control yield levels, yield curves and risk premiums. It is hard to imagine that the ECB would expect the euro area’s debt-stricken countries to be able to cope with more than a modest rise in yields. At – 0.2 % by the end of 2021, 10-year German government bonds will not emerge from negative yield territory next year. The economic recovery will alleviate the pressure on corporate credit proﬁles in 2021. Corporate bond issuance will return to normal. As corporate credit ratings stabilise, this will have a positive effect on the quality of banks’ balance sheets. Covered bonds will be under- pinned by their quality and demand will remain buoyant. The low level of risk premiums will persist, driven by demand from central banks. Equity investors have endured a roller- coaster year of extreme volatility in the wake of the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic. In 2021, equities will continue to be caught between high valuations and a lack of investment alternatives. Stocks will beneﬁt from their status as tangible assets. After all, the global volume of negative-yielding government bonds has reached its previ- ous all-time high of August 2019 again. However, until effective vaccines become available, equities will remain dependent on support from monetary and ﬁscal policy. Nevertheless, in view of anticipated Nanny provides strong support o D Sources: Macrobond, Helaba Research \*2020 and 2021: IMF forecasts 34 36 38 0 2 44 46 48 0 2 34 36 38 0 2 44 46 48 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 11 2 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2 over me s e over me reve e 13 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba medical advances and an associated strong economic rebound, among the traditional asset classes equities hold out the best prospects for 2021. Towards the end of the year, the DAX is likely to be trading at around 14,000 points. As an asset class, real estate will continue to beneﬁt from ex- tremely low interest rates. However, the recession of 2020 will not leave the real estate market unscathed. In commercial seg- ments, especially retail, rents and purchase prices will decline in 2021. In contrast, the German housing market will resume its upward trend, albeit at a slightly more moderate pace, thanks to ongoing robust demand and a continuing shortage of available properties. 2020 was a record-breaking year for gold. With the outbreak of Covid-19, the traditional safe-haven was propelled to unprece- dented highs. Even after the pandemic has subsided, we do not expect any turnaround in 2021. After all, gold always stands to gain when the world’s reserve currency, the US dollar, weakens. This is compounded by an ongoing situation of real negative yields and astronomical levels of government debt. Overall, with political support, the gold price will be trading at 2,000 US dollar or 1,600 euro per troy ounce by the end of the year. The attractiveness of the US dollar has waned. Its yield advantage against the euro will remain low as loose monetary policy is here to stay for some time to come. Without a cyclical tailwind, it is at risk of being adversely affected by structural problems. Caution is warranted due to a high budget deﬁcit combined with a chronic current account deﬁcit in the United States, especially since the greenback is regarded as overvalued. The euro-dollar exchange rate is likely to be trading at around 1.25 by the end of the year. Patrick Franke Sources: Datastream, Helaba Research Gold only asset class with significant gains in 2020 e e December 20 00 o al re r R \*Helaba index for German open-ended real estate funds es D ol ommo es R e o s o erma Real es a e Helaba e a eb ar r a Jun. l Aug. e c Nov Dec a eb 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 20 0 14 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Interest rates and bonds The power on the River Main Despite a cyclical revival, higher inﬂation and rising national debt, yields on 10-year German government bonds will remain negative throughout 2021. This is attributable to the ECB and its ballooning balance sheet, which will exert downward pressure on bond market yields. The European Central Bank, which has now been under the lead- ership of Christine Lagarde for a year, is the guardian of the euro bond market. Since the euro area sovereign debt crisis, the central bankers have intervened in bond markets on an enormous scale by launching purchase programmes, the main goal of which is to avert the danger of a signiﬁcant rise in risk premiums. These mammoth liquidity injections and changes to the regulatory framework during the Covid-19 pandemic should prop up banks and companies; more importantly, though, they are designed to stabilise the capital markets. And the ECB’s efforts have paid off. Even without cutting key interest rates, which have already reached record lows, it was rapidly able to contain bond prices of crisis-torn countries. In conjunction with ex- tensive EU rescue packages, the yield on 10-year Italian government bonds even fell to a new all-time low of 0.6 %. While the ECB’s bal- ance sheet total already stood at as much as 2 trillion euros in 2014, since March it has risen from 4.7 trillion to a most recent level of 6.7 trillion euro. In 2020, the central bank’s total assets are expected to soar to around 60 % of euro area nominal GDP. This is part of a global trend, with Japan leading the way with a ratio of more than 120 %. Yields set to rise – but the ECB will keep a lid on them The yield on 10-year German government bonds also registered a new low of – 0.8 % in March. By the end of 2021, it is likely to rise to – 0.2 %. The trend towards rising yields will be fuelled by a cyclical recovery, inﬂation gathering pace and a massive increase in government debt. Now, even the European Union is to join the ranks of major issuers on the bond market. In the past, the signiﬁ- cantly higher supply and the extremely negative real yield would have entailed considerable price risks. “In the face of what I call the market failures, it is a question that we have to ask ourselves as to whether market neutrality should be the actual principle that drives our monetary policy portfolio management.” Christine Lagarde, ECB President But with the ECB acting as a backstop, many investors will pre- sumably be reassured. They are counting on the central bank simply expanding its purchase programmes if the worst comes to the worst. The most likely option is to extend the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) beyond the previously envisaged exit date of mid-2021. In addition, investors can rely on the fact that key interest rates will stay negative for a long time to come. The ECB’s announcement in the middle of the year of a strategy review should underpin this expectation. There are strong indications that the ECB will follow the US Fed’s lead in seeking higher inﬂation in future as well as tolerating a longer period of inﬂation target overshoot. 15 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba As regards to risks and side-effects … However, the link between monetary and ﬁscal policy, which have become increas- ingly intertwined during the Covid-19 crisis, could prove to be a serious problem in the long term. The rising share of out- standing government bonds that are held by the ECB threatens its capacity to act and exposes it to growing political inﬂu- ence. If inﬂation rises signiﬁcantly, will it still be possible to tighten monetary policy without jeopardising the ability for euro area countries to reﬁnance themselves? Perhaps this is more of a rhetorical ques- tion. Alternatively, is the ECB itself becom- ing a socio-political protagonist and playing a role that goes far beyond its remit of controlling inﬂation – for example, by con- tributing to the ﬁght against climate change? At the same time, there is a risk that necessary reforms, in Italy for instance, will be put on the back burner due to the extensive monetary policy support the ECB has provided. Christine Lagarde’s suggestion that the EU’s economic stimulus packages should be retained as permanent support mechanisms would only add to this risk. In turn, this could result in populist tendencies, especially in northern EU countries, ﬂaring up again. Ultimately, incentives for sound economic man- agement will diminish – not only in struggling countries. US government bonds are also affected by tensions between mounting government debt and ultra-loose monetary policy. Here, too, rising yields can be expected as a reaction to a transformed economic environment. While the yield on 10-year US Treasuries has been around 0.7 % since the beginning of the crisis, it is likely to reach 1.2 % by the end of 2021 – although this is still relatively low by historical standards. If inﬂation expecta- tions and US key interest rates were to be used in old regression models, it would result in a yield of around 2.5 %. Ulf Krauss Purchase programmes ensure yields remain in negative territory Sources: Datastream, Helaba Research R b ll o s s bala ce shee lhs el o 0 s rhs % – 0 –0 0 0 0 0 1.5 2 0 2 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2 3M Euribor 10y Bunds 10y US Treasuries for more interest rate forecasts see page 54 Source: Helaba Research – 0 – 0 0 00 Q2 /2021 – 0 0 – 0 20 20 Q4 / 2021 Forecast, end of period ... 16 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Covered Bonds Quality matters Covered bonds have proven their resil- ience to crises in 2020 and will remain in demand in 2021, too. Meanwhile, the market continues to evolve: EU minimum standards are expected to be implemented by the middle of 2021 and the sustaina- bility segment is growing. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on covered bonds was less severe than on many other asset classes. Spreads reached their pre-crisis levels at an early stage, mainly thanks to generous support by the ECB. For 2021, we expect credit qualities to remain largely stable. Any major real estate risks should be limited to the retail and hotel segments. Owing to the fact that many loans are prefunded and that there are attractive reﬁnancing alternatives available through the Eurosystem, maturing debt of around 134 billion euro will be matched by new issues with a total estimated volume of only around 105 billion euro. As demand is expected to remain strong, especially from central banks, risk premiums should stay low. Monetary policy boosts relative appeal While the persistence of negative yields may act as a deterrent to certain inves- tors, at the same time yields on alterna- tive bonds – such as those from German Länder, development banks or the new major issuer the European Union – are even more negative in many cases. In addition, banks have to pay high penalty rates for excess reserves. Market remains receptive. The number of investors seeking sustain- ability-linked assets is increasing and this trend is supporting the still small but rapidly growing segment of green and social covered bonds. Furthermore, to ensure the quality of covered bonds, EU-wide minimum stand- ards designed to harmonise covered bonds are set to be transposed into national law by mid-2021. For some covered bond markets, such as Spain or the Czech Republic, the new requirements are likely to mean an increase in quality. However, issuers will not have to apply the new requirements until the middle of 2022. Sabrina Miehs 17 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Credits The new normal The need to reﬁnance maturing debt and fund structural invest- ment programmes will be the primary motives for corporates to issue bonds in 2021. Banks’ activities on the primary markets will be determined by the ECB’s liquidity operations and regula- tory requirements. we estimate that issuance activity in 2021 will be signiﬁcantly lower. We anticipate a primary market volume of 300 to 350 billion euro. Banks beneﬁt from support by monetary policy and regulators Stabilising corporate credit qualities will also have a positive effect on the quality of banks’ assets. However, banks have so far taken very different approaches to setting aside provisions for credit risks in line with economic expectations. The extent to which these provisions are adequate will only become apparent once moratoria and ﬁscal policy support programmes have expired. The issue of sustainability is becoming increasingly important for every segment. The pandemic is also boosting the trend towards digitisation. Cost-cutting initiatives will remain on the agenda as a result of high capital expenditure costs and dwin- dling earnings. On a positive note, at least most banks have built up substantial capital buffers. Having been forced to abstain from paying out dividends to their shareholders, they want to return to their previous distribution policies as soon as possible. Due to their large-scale participation in the ECB’s TLTRO pro- gramme, many institutions have slashed the number and volume of issues they had planned for 2020 as a whole. In 2021, issuance will again be strongly inﬂuenced by ECB policy. The ECB’s liquidity operations and the challenging business environment both weigh on the outlook for primary market activities. On the other hand, there will be a renewed increase in maturities. In addition, the volume of regulatory-driven non-preferred issues will continue to grow so that there will be further use of favourable capital market windows. Dr. Susanne E. Knips, Ulrich Kirschner, CFA The wide-ranging measures launched to raise liquidity in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis mean that the primary market for euro corporate bonds will reach a new record volume of more than 450 billion euro in 2020. Purchases by the ECB to support the market will be a key factor in ensuring that demand for corporate bonds remains high in 2021 and reﬁnancing costs stay at a low level. In addition, the economic recovery will tend to reduce risk premiums for companies. Although default rates for corporates are likely to rise in some cases as a delayed consequence of the pandemic, pressure on credit proﬁles should ease for the majority of companies. Primary market appears unlikely to set a new record in 2021. As the crisis subsides, the need for many issuers to further increase their liquidity will decrease. Instead, the capital market operations of corporates will once again focus on replacing maturing issues and ﬁnancing structural investment pro- grammes, for example in the automotive industry (e-mobility) or in the telecommunications sector (expanding networks). Overall, 18 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Equities Dependent on support Equity investors have endured an unusually turbulent year amid the unfolding crisis of the Covid-19 pandemic: a crash in the ﬁrst quarter was followed by a record-breaking rally where- upon many indices succeeded in recouping most of their losses. Although fresh lockdowns have once again reduced investors’ appetite for risk, equities are still likely to be the best perform- ers among traditional asset classes in 2021. Despite mounting an impressive overall comeback, there have been considerable geographic variations in how equities have rebounded. Among economic heavyweights, China has so far weathered the crisis most successfully in terms of equity market performance. As of 4 November, Chinese stocks (Shanghai Shen- zhen CSI 300) were trading 18 % up on their 2019 year-end level. US equities (S&amp;P 500) had posted a 7 % gain, while in Europe (EURO STOXX 50) they were still 16 % lower. Since reaching a peak in March, investors’ risk aversion has declined sharply as the year has progressed. The implied volatility of the leading international indices – an indicator of market participants’ perceived uncertainty – has moved largely within normal parameters, even since the resumption of lockdowns. Why are market players handling the crisis with such surprising calm? The main reason is probably a combination of highly expansionary ﬁscal policies by governments around the world and the ultra-loose monetary policy of central banks. In view of this, investors have clearly extended their investment horizons and are already anticipating a post-Covid era. In some cases, this has resulted in surging equity valuations. In 2021, it is likely that equities will continue to be caught between high valuations and a lack of investment alternatives. In this regard, stocks will beneﬁt from their status as tangible assets. After all, the global volume of negative-yielding govern- ment bonds has reached its previous all-time high of August DA has upside potential e o s Sources: Datastream, Helaba Research \*Bands: fair value based on earnings, dividends, cash ﬂow and book value asel e sce ar o os ve sce ar o Ne a ve sce ar o 0 2 000 000 000 000 0 000 2 000 000 000 000 0 2 000 000 000 000 0 000 2 000 000 000 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 2 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2 19 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba 2019 again. However, until effective vaccines become available, equities will remain dependent on support from mone- tary and ﬁscal policy. Moreover, a crucial factor will be to ensure that measures to combat the pandemic are administered adequately so that the eco- nomic damage can be contained. However, it is not a foregone conclusion that this will always succeed at the ﬁrst attempt. In light of this, so-called risky assets may suffer temporary setbacks. Nevertheless, in view of anticipated medical advances and an associated strong economic rebound, among the traditional asset classes equi- ties hold out the best prospects for 2021. This is what investors feel equities are best placed to deliver: “Success is not ﬁnal, failure is not fatal, it is the courage to continue that counts.” Winston Churchill (1874 – 1965) Valuation of US equities particularly high The primary beneﬁciaries on the US market in 2020 have included IT, telecoms and e-commerce stocks. These are exactly the equities with strong weightings in the S&amp;P 500. Consequently, they account for around 50 % of the market capitalisation of the S&amp;P 500 index – almost as high as at the peak of the new economy boom in the late 1990s. This has also contributed to the fact that the valuation of the S&amp;P 500 – in terms of its price-earnings ratio – has come close to all-time highs seen in the spring of 2000. Even if interest rates remain low, there is little scope for permanently higher valua- tions, especially since other sectors of the US market are already expensive. As a result, equity prices are likely to rise only to the extent that the outlook for corporate earnings improves. We expect the S&amp;P 500 to close 2021 at 3,750 points. DAX relatively attractive In contrast, European and especially German stocks are valued signiﬁcantly lower than their US counterparts. The DAX, for example, is currently within its fair long-term valuation range. As the economy recovers dynamically, in line with our assumptions, expectations for corporate earnings will rise noticeably. At the same time, there is room for a modest uptick in valuations and thus potential for price gains. In our baseline scenario, the DAX will be trading for the most part in the upper half of a fair valuation range of 11,000 to 14,500 points in 2021. Towards the end of the year, we expect the leading German index to reach 14,000 points. Markus Reinwand, CFA DAX EURO STOXX 50 S&amp;P 500 for more equity forecasts see page 54 Source: Helaba Research 00 0 0 Q2 /2021 000 0 0 Q4 / 2021 Forecast, end of period … 20 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Gold Politically protected 2020 was a record-breaking year for gold. With the outbreak of Covid-19, the traditional safe-haven was propelled to unprece- dented highs. In 2021, political support for the precious metal will continue so that, even when the pandemic is over, there will be no turnaround in the trend. The precious metal has surged from one high to another, breaking through the psychologically signiﬁcant mark of 2,000 US dollar per troy ounce in August before reaching a new all-time high of 2,075 US dollar. In euro terms, its growth was even more pronounced, culminating in a record of almost 1,750 per troy ounce. Subsequently, a period of consolidation set in, although the precious metal should soon breach the 2,000 US dollar thresh- old once again and rise, at least temporarily, to 2,300 US dollar per troy ounce in 2021. In this respect, gold has lived up to its reputation as a safe haven currency, attracting investors due to the current high level of uncertainty on the markets. As the pandemic subsides in the course of 2021, we do not expect to see any more comparable spikes in the price of gold. At the same time, though, there is unlikely to be a signiﬁcant downward correction either, as is usually the case after similar record years. Three investment-related issues will contribute to this in 2021 and should ensure demand for gold remains stable: monetary policy, ﬁscal policy and the weakness of the dollar. Forecast, end of period ... Gold USD/ounce Gold Euro/ounce Source: Helaba Research 2 000 1,667 Q2 / 2021 2 000 00 Q4 / 2021 21 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Negative real interest rates The Fed, the ECB and a number of other central banks have ﬁxed their key interest rates at zero or lower as part of their efforts to combat the crisis. This zero-rate policy is not expected to be abandoned any time soon; on the contrary, monetary policymakers are signalling that they will keep their interest rates at this low level for a very long time to come. This has not only pushed down nominal interest rates in both the United States and Germany, but has also led to negative real interest rates in both currency areas. The result is that, compared to alternative safe invest- ments, holding gold no longer entails any opportunity costs and even offers advan- tages by avoiding negative interest rates. In 2021 this will not change in real terms. “You have to choose between trusting to the natural stability of gold and the natural stability of the honesty and intelligence of the members of the Government. And, with due respect for these gentlemen, I advise you, …, to vote for gold.” George Bernard Shaw (1856 – 1950) Lasting mountains of debt In their response to the crisis, countries throughout the world have seen their national debt rise sharply. Although econ- omies are now recovering from the down- turn, it will take some time before they reach pre-crisis levels again. There is no prospect of any rapid decline in govern- ment debt; in fact, policymakers seem to be pursuing a strategy of “growing” out of their debts. However, this is in turn fuelling expectations that governments will seek to stoke inﬂation in the long term in order to devalue their debt. If this approach were to gain traction among investors and savers, the role of paper currencies would be undermined as a means of storing value and, in return, gold’s appeal as an alternative currency would increase. Weak dollar = strong gold Gold always beneﬁts when the global reserve currency, the US dollar, weakens. This was the case in 2020 as a result of the Fed’s monetary policy and US Presi- dent Trump’s (mis)management of the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2021, the greenback will not regain its former strength, even under a new presi- dent. Overall, the precious metal will ﬂuc- tuate around the 2,000-dollar mark with political support, in a range of between 1,800 and 2,300 US dollar per troy ounce. Claudia Windt Sources: Macrobond, Helaba Research Gold: setting its sights on another record high USD / R er ro o ce ol D ol R 0 00 000 00 2 000 0 00 000 00 2 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 2 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2 22 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Real estate Not completely immune Real estate will continue to reap the beneﬁts of a protracted low interest rate environment in 2021. However, the deep recession in the previous year will have a delayed impact – with market segments affected in quite different ways. ing new leases and reviewing their ofﬁce space requirements. Although rental in- come will recover in 2021, the long-term impact on demand for ofﬁce space of a shift to remote working arrangements may gradually become more noticeable. The likely outcome will be rising vacancy rates in certain locations and a modest decline in ofﬁce rents. However, more generous distancing regulations and cautious project developers, as well as a rebound in employment, should limit negative market reactions. Robust German housing market The pandemic has not yet had any nega- tive repercussions for the German hous- ing market. The crisis of recent months has probably even reinforced the trend towards a ﬂight into residential property, in a similar way as during the ﬁnancial crisis. The latest data point to a sustained upward trend, although the average rise in residential property prices is likely to slow down somewhat in 2021. Ultimately, with more people working from home, demand may tend to migrate from central inner-city locations to the out- skirts of metropolitan areas. The German housing market will remain in the political spotlight. Will the political parties try to outdo each other in proposing interventionist measures during the election campaign? This would not result in any more living space being built. The fundamentals of the housing market will remain largely intact: low interest rates and people relocating to conurba- tions will ensure buoyant demand. With construction ﬁrms’ order books bursting at the seams, this will limit residential construction activity; consequently, the gap between supply and demand will remain wide. Finally, housing policy is having anything but a constructive effect. Some measures are not helping to over- come the housing shortage and could even discourage investors. It will be interesting Experience has shown that real estate markets are closely correlated with, but lag behind, macroeconomic trends. For this reason, to a certain extent the severe recession in Germany is not expected to have an impact on rents and property values until 2021. The consequences of the pandemic will vary considerably by property type. Apart from the hospitality sector, retail properties were hit hardest by large- scale closures during the spring lockdown. Food retailing is an exception to this. However, many bricks-and-mortar retailers are the main casualties of the crisis, with consumers increasingly turning to online retailers. A swathe of retail outlets will not survive the Covid-19 crisis and this could result in lost rental income and rising vacancy rates, especially in less desirable locations. The decline in prices, which was already underway before the onset of the pandemic, will continue in 2021. The boom on the German ofﬁce market is also likely to have run its course for the time being. Many companies are postpon- 23 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba to see what the party manifestos for the 2021 German federal elections have to say about this issue. Weaker real estate funds due to the crisis The average year-on-year performance of German open-ended mutual property funds fell below the 2 % mark for the ﬁrst time since 2011 due to the crisis-induced decline in prices. Given the customary time lag associated with property apprais- als, further depreciations of properties are likely in 2021, especially in retail and hospitality sectors. This will lower the average annual performance to between 1 % and 1.5 %, before a turnaround can be expected in the second half of the year. At the end of 2021, average yields on the major funds are likely to remain below 2 %. In view of the signiﬁcantly weaker perfor- mance compared with previous years, capital inﬂows will decline. However, thanks to the introduction of notice and minimum holding periods several years ago, even funds experiencing temporarily negative returns are unlikely to see any substantial outﬂows. Dr. Stefan Mitropoulos 24 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Currencies Dollar slide to continue On currency markets, it is often a question of who is one-eyed and who is blind. For many years, the euro was considered the greater source of concern. This view seems to be changing: In the wake of Covid-19, political and economic difﬁculties are coming to the fore in the United States. Prospects for the US currency therefore remain gloomy. In periods of uncertainty, the US dollar is often a much sought-after safe-haven currency. Indeed, the greenback initially beneﬁtted from the coronavirus pandemic – but it didn’t last long. In the meantime, there are signs that the US currency will close out 2020 in the red. This is despite the fact that the US economy has taken less of a battering than the euro area. However, the US Federal Reserve reacted more aggressively to the crisis than the ECB. Yields on US bonds are only slightly higher than those in Europe, eroding one of the US dollar’s main advantages over the euro. Despite the economic recovery in 2021, monetary policy in the US and the euro area will not see any fundamental change. Interest rate hikes are still a long way off. The only area in which the Fed is likely to shift down a notch ahead of the ECB is quantitative easing. However, the US yield advantage will not increase signiﬁcantly. In any case, the US Federal Reserve took the lead, which the stronger monetary growth serves to underline. The United States is not expected to enjoy a growth advantage in 2021, so there is unlikely to be any cyclical tailwind for the US dollar. Other factors have counselled caution for some time already. Dollar faces structural problems Budget deﬁcits have been rising everywhere during the crisis. In the United States, though, the deﬁcit has been rising particularly steeply, not least it is ﬁnanced by the Fed. Apart from some one- off effects that are set to expire, deﬁcits remain high. Regardless of the election outcome, there are no signs of ﬁscal consolidation in US politics. Since the United States is also dependent on ﬁnanc- ing its spending from overseas due to its chronic current account deﬁcit, this is of relevance for the dollar. The record-high “twin deﬁcit” arouses suspicion among foreign creditors, especially as some are not amused by the way the US currency is being used as a tool to impose international sanctions, e. g. on Russia or Iran. In any case, the US dollar is still considered overvalued in terms of purchasing power parity – especially against the euro. Given their increasingly protectionist stance, even US policymakers might show a growing interest in a weaker currency. 25 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba “The US dollar slide has entered the early stages of what looks to be a sharp descent.” Stephen Roach, US economist Structural problems and a lack of cyclical tailwind – does that foreshadow a major dollar collapse? The danger of a dramatic devaluation is still minimal and it is unlikely that the greenback will lose its status as the world’s reserve currency any time soon due to a lack of alternatives. After all, even the euro is one-eyed at best. The EU’s recovery funds will help to alleviate certain difﬁ- culties, but ﬁnancial and political concerns will not be banished forever. In any case, a monetary policy turnaround by the ECB is still a long way off. For this reason, the trend towards a modest depreciation of the dollar will presumably continue in 2021. The euro-dollar exchange rate is likely to close the year at 1.25. Pound sterling, Swiss franc and Japanese yen Sterling has been plagued by a “Brexit discount” for years. An end to the political uncertainty should give the British currency a boost, even if the new reality outside the EU will be anything but rosy. Hopes are also high for a more robust economic recovery once the devastating effects of the pandemic have subsided. The fact that the Swiss franc, as a safe haven for investment, has not been a major beneﬁciary of Covid-19 can be explained in no small part by the SNB’s aggressive intervention. In the wake of a generally more favourable economic environment, demand for the Swiss currency will decline and the euro-franc exchange rate should rise to 1.12. The Japanese yen has been able to beneﬁt from the weaker US dollar but has lost ground somewhat against the euro. This trend is expected to continue in 2021. In terms of its external position, Japan is in considerably better shape than the United States but is posting slower growth than the euro area. Christian Apelt, CFA Low interest rate spread makes US dollar unattractive o s ollars Sources: Macrobond, Helaba Research rea 0 over me bo s erma vs lhs ro/ ollar ra e rhs 0 1.1 2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.5 0 0 0 0 2 14 16 18 20 Forecast, end of period\* ... US dollar Japanese yen British pound for more currency forecasts see page 54 Source: Helaba Research \* vs. euro Swiss franc 20 2 0 Q2 / 2021 2 2 0 0 2 Q4 / 2021 26 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Countries in the baseline scenario 2 GDP 4.8 % GDP 3.3 % GDP 5.7 % GDP 6.0 % GDP 7.5 % GDP 8.0 % GDP 5.0 % GDP 3.2 % GDP 2.2 % GDP 9.3 % GDP 3.7 % GDP 3.8 % GDP 3.0 % GDP 3.5 % 27 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba European Union The next generation The year to date has brought about changes that will have a lasting transformative impact on the European Union. 2021 marks the beginning of a new era. The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU in the spring as well as decisions taken in July on a European recovery plan and the EU’s multiannual ﬁnancial framework are the deﬁning events of 2020. “The COVID-19 crisis presents Europe with a challenge of historic proportions.” European Council An unprecedented economic slump, millions of job losses and health systems that are stretched to the limit represent challenges that have been driving a trend towards closer collaboration among the 27 remaining EU states. As part of the “NextGenera- tionEU” (NGEU) recovery plan, a decision was made that member states can apply for ﬁnancial aid worth 390 billion euro from the EU budget. This package represents an unparalleled level of support and will be supplemented by loans, bringing the total NGEU volume to 750 billion euro. “Recovery &amp; Resilience Facility” a central element of the EU budget In July, the NGEU recovery plan was adopted as part of the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework for the period of 2021 to 2027, which amounts to a total of 1.8 trillion euro. This shows that NGEU is crucial for the expansion of the EU budget in the coming years, especially in view of the years 2021 to 2023, when the bulk of payments will be made. Outstanding bonds with a volume of EUR 900 billion possible The EU Commission will fund these measures by tapping the capi- tal markets. Together with smaller issuance programmes (e. g. the EU short-time work scheme, SURE) and EFSM activities, the vol- ume of outstanding EU bonds will amount to around 900 billion euro within a few years. This will make the EU ﬁfth-largest borrower in Europe in the future. While in the United Kingdom, national political concerns have gained the upper hand due to Brexit, with these measures the EU is taking a giant leap towards communitisation. This does not represent the introduction of Eurobonds – not yet at least – but EU bonds will play an important role in the primary market for years to come. Ralf Umlauf EU to rank fifth as debtor in future s a vol me R b ll o s Sources: EU, Bloomberg, Helaba Research \*EU member states: as of 2019; EU: total estimated volume over next few years 2 000 00 0 020 00 00 0 2 0 00 al ra ce erma a EU el m Ne her la s s r a hers 28 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Germany Emerging stronger from the crisis The Covid-19 crisis is not over yet in Germany. However, with a decline of 5.4 % in calendar-adjusted terms in 2020, the economy is not expected to shrink as fast as the euro area as a whole. A process of recovery is already underway. Measures by the government to stabilise the economy have mitigated the damage, with a stimulus package of around 130 billion euro providing an additional boost. Following the slump in economic output in the spring and a strong rebound in the third quarter, growth will largely come to a stand- still in the ﬁnal quarter of 2020 due to stricter measures to combat the pandemic. Ultimately, Germany is likely to see a calendar- adjusted fall in GDP of 5.4 % by the end of the year. Nevertheless, leading indicators point to a continuation in the recovery. For 2021, we expect that the economy will grow by an estimated 5 % and that it should return to its pre-crisis level by as early as next autumn. The coronavirus pandemic has widened the gap in per capita income between Germany and the euro area. In contrast to France or Italy, public consumption expenditure rose in the spring of 2020. After all, they account for one ﬁfth of gross domestic product and are forecast to have grown by 3.5 % in 2020. In 2021, thanks to generous government spending, a further rise of 3 % is expected. Social beneﬁts, in particular, were increased in 2020. Social security systems have partially offset people’s loss of income due to short-time work and increased unemployment. Investments in R&amp;D and software to rapidly exceed pre-crisis levels Real gross ﬁxed capital formation in Germany, Index Q1 /200 00 Sources: Macrobond, Helaba Research Construction investment Equipment Other investment e.g. R&amp;D, software, databases, copyrights) 0 0 0 00 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 2 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2 22 29 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba The number of partially unemployed workers, which recently stood at around 3.3 million, is likely to fall further in 2021 and the unemployment rate should also decline. People will gradually return to regular employment, but this will take time. Unemploy- ment in 2021 is expected to average 2.8 million, some 530,000 more than in 2019. Consumer spending is likely to rise by 5 % in real terms in 2021. However, due to ongoing pressure as a result of the Covid-19 Germany pandemic, consumer will still be limited in their ﬁnancial scope, especially with regard to services. The retail sector has beneﬁtted, although not in all segments, having already exceeded its pre-crisis level of sales. Online retailers are the biggest winners, but the situation of bricks-and-mortar retailers has also improved. The growth in consumption will coincide with an increase in disposable income of only about 4 %. However, savings rate will return to a normal level. It is likely to fall by three percentage points following a sharp rise in 2020 to 16 %. Real growth in consumption in 2021 will be hampered by a somewhat higher deﬂator. At the beginning of the year, value-added tax is set to revert to its original level and higher energy prices will have an inﬂationary effect. Capital expenditure to determine competitiveness It will be a while before a recovery in global investments in equipment sets in. Capacities in manufacturing industry remain underutilised so that, for the time being, expansion is not an urgent priority. In addition, the severe recession has led to a deterioration in corporate earnings. Protectionist tendencies and the consequences of Brexit have long had a negative impact. Currently, this is acutely felt by German industry, which is heavily geared towards supplying capital goods. Exports in 2021 are expected to grow by 8 %, only partially compensating for this year’s slump to date (2020: – 12 %). As a result, the handbrake has also been applied to equipment spending in Germany, which will also rise at a more moderate pace. Having plummeted by an estimated 18 % in 2020, it will probably take several years to return to pre-crisis levels. Starting from this low baseline, investments in vehicles and machinery are likely to increase by 12 % in 2021. GDP real, % yoy GDP real, % yoy, working day adjusted r va e co s m o yoy over me s e yoy Gross ﬁxed capital formation, % yoy Inves me e me yoy o s r c o oy or s oy m or s oy Consumer prices, % yoy Unemployment rate, % Unemployed, million General government balance, % of GDP Current account balance, % of GDP 2020e 2021f 2022f Source: Helaba Research e = estimate, f = forecast – – –2 6.7 6.7 6.6 – 0 0 1.9 –5.4 0 2 0 – 0 0 2 0 3.5 0 2 0 –5.6 0 2 0 – 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 – 2 0 0 0 – 0 0 6.5 0 0 1.9 2 0 0 6.1 5.5 2 0 2 00 2 00 30 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba The German government’s economic stimulus measures will help to improve the country’s international competitiveness, e. g. the reduction in the EEG (renewable energy) surcharge, the reintroduction of degressive depreciation, improvements to research funding, the expansion of tax loss carry-back rules as well as the capping of social security contributions to 40 % by 2021. In addition, ﬁnancial support from the government will make it easier for German companies active in ﬁelds such as e-mobility, hydrogen technology, artiﬁcial intelligence (AI) and quantum technology to bolster their position. Apart from government consumption expenditure, construction investment is the only other item that has risen, growing by around 1 % in 2020. Building sites have been able to continue working almost without interruption. New orders, however, continued to decline well into the summer months, although here, too, the situation can be expected to improve. Demand for housing and renovation work remains high. As the labour market returns to normal, existing uncertainty should abate and ﬁnancing conditions remain attractive for buyers. Public sector construction will continue to beneﬁt from the spending policies of local authorities. The situation in the commercial construction sec- tor is more difﬁcult, however. Overall, investments in construction are expected to show somewhat more robust growth of 2 % in 2021. While companies dramatically reduced their investments in machinery and vehicles in 2020, reductions in spending on research and development as well as software were signiﬁcantly lower. They are the principal component of investments in “other investments”, whose share of total investments has now risen to almost 19 %. In order to enhance their competitiveness with the help of new processes and products and by digitising workﬂows, companies are also likely to invest more heavily in these areas over the years ahead. Here, German industry continues to play a leading international role. Germany The social market economy must not be allowed to turn into a nanny state. Given the exceptional pandemic situation, government protection policies and economic stimulus packages are the right response to the difﬁculties that arose. The German economy is gaining momen- tum again. For this reason, the government should gradually start considering phasing out interventionist measures in the economy. The German model of a social market economy must not be allowed to turn into a nanny state. This would have a detri- mental effect on productivity and, by extension, on Germany’s competitiveness. In 2020, the government deﬁcit has jumped to an estimated 6.5 % of gross domestic product, signiﬁcantly more than during the ﬁnancial crisis (2009: – 3.2 %). The national debt is likely to rise by more than 10 percentage points to more than 70 % of GDP. The ﬁnancial tour de force that the government undertook was readily managed because years of prudent ﬁscal policy had preceded the crisis. The next government that Germans elect in October 2021 should quickly consolidate this approach in order to be able to cope with possible future crises. Dr. Stefan Mütze 31 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Hesse, Thuringia, North Rhine- Westphalia and Brandenburg: keep your cool! Germany is a country with a distinctly federal character. So, it comes as little surprise that the federal states have favoured different approaches in the Covid-19 crisis. In this situation, the important thing is for politicians and citizens alike to keep their cool as there is a lot of uncertainty how to tackle the pandemic. It might even be worthwhile experimenting with different strategies to combat the disease. When the going gets really tough, Germany’s federal system has proven that it is able to achieve workable compromises – as the decision on the most recent lockdown in November shows. The following selection of German federal states is focused on Helaba’s core regions. Hesse more effected by Covid-19 Covid-19 has hit the State of Hesse with particular severity. In October 2020, the number of unemployed rose by 47,500 compared to the same month last year. This was 7.5 times higher than during the ﬁnancial crisis. The reason for this drastic increase can be found in service sectors. For example, the volume of passengers passing through Frankfurt Airport in the period up to October 2020 was around 75 % lower than the same period in 2019. The Hessian hospitality industry suffered a – 43 % slump in turnover in the ﬁrst seven months of 2020. Although the industrial sector in Hesse recorded declining sales, a recovery has already set in and should mean that revenues in 2020 will fall by less than 10 % overall. The retail sector, which includes online sales, even posted a 2.5 % increase in sales in real terms and the construction sector also registered growth. Overall, Hesse’s GDP is likely to fall by around 6 % in 2020, with an aver- age contraction in Germany as a whole of – 5 %. With growth of 5 % in 2021, the economic recovery in Hesse could be just as strong as that of Germany. Thuringia to make up lost ground Industrial companies in the German state of Thuringia have so far weathered the Covid-19 pandemic somewhat more successfully and their revenues in 2020 are likely to see a decline of consider- ably under 10 %. Food manufacturers were responsible for this more positive performance. Demand for their products was not only high during the lockdown, as evidenced by a 16 % increase in sales in the ﬁrst eight months of 2020 compared to 2.6 % in Germany as a whole. Other industrial segments, such as the auto- Germany 32 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba motive industry and producers of metal products, felt the full force of the coronavirus pandemic. Unemployment rose by 18 % in Thuringia in October 2020, which was below the national average of 25 %. Thuringia’s economic growth should be strong enough to achieve stagnation over 2020 and 2021. Smaller impact on North Rhine-Westphalia At the beginning of 2020, all the signs were pointing to an eco- nomic recovery in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) as well. But then everything changed. The industrial sector experienced major losses. Meanwhile, the worst is behind it but a contraction of around 10 % will be unavoidable for 2020 as a whole. The tourist industry has been operating, to a greater or lesser extent, in a strict lockdown. A 35 % loss of income has meant a struggle for survival for many hotels and restaurants. NRW’s retail sector, on the other hand, has recorded a 2.5 % growth in sales in real terms this year, which is even on a par with the par- ticu larly strong performance it achieved in 2019. The biggest winners are e-commerce businesses, supermarkets, consumer electronics stores and DIY stores as well as pharmacies and sports retailers. Other retailers, however, are struggling to survive. The overall contraction in NRW’s economy is expected to be below 5 % in 2020 which, as in the ﬁnancial crisis, will be slightly lower than the national German average. Provided that there are no strict lockdowns lasting weeks in the new year, growth in NRW could reach around 5 %. Brandenburg to emerge relatively unscathed The structure of Brandenburg’s economy has its own unique features. The industrial sector has a share of only 13 % (Germany: 22 %). On the other hand, service industries and the public sector account for an above-average proportion of overall output. At the time of the ﬁnancial crisis, this structure helped to mitigate the downturn and resulted in a contraction of only 2.8 % in Branden- burg back then. A similar development is likely to occur in 2020 – albeit to a lesser extent, since this time a large number of services are affected by the crisis. At around 4 %, GDP is likely to fall by one percentage point less than the German average. In 2021, we can expect to see a rebound of at least 5 % as tourist trafﬁc picks up once the pandemic dies down and the recently opened Berlin-Brandenburg airport ﬁlls with activity. Barbara Bahadori Germany Labour market: impact of Covid-19 bigger than financial crisis N mber o em lo e absol e cha e com are o same mo h he ear be ore ho sa s Sources: German Federal Employment Agency, Helaba Research aarla reme ec l om a hal ra e b r h r a chles Hol a o Hamb r Rh el al o er a o Hesse erl a e r avar a N Rh e es h –2 0 2 0 75 00 2 0 c 200 c 2020 33 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba France Uncertainty abounds The second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic is ravaging France. Gross domestic product is expected to fall towards the end of the year, but it will be followed by a recovery in 2021 after this enforced hiatus. Spending by private households is likely to plunge by 7 % in 2020 as a whole. It is expected to rebound in 2021 with a similarly strong increase of 7 %. The sharper drop in economic activity can also be explained by the fact that public sector consumption expenditure in France fell signiﬁcantly in the ﬁrst half of 2020, whereas it increased in Germany. However, this segment has also turned the corner and this trend is expected to continue in 2021. In addition, the French government is attempting to stimulate economic growth with a stimulus package in the order of 100 billion euro. It includes EUR 20 billion in cuts to business taxes not linked to proﬁts. On top of that, the government has announced steps to boost digiti- sation and the transition to a green economy with additional investment in the railway network, renewable energy and the thermal insulation of buildings. These measures will lead to more investment in equipment and buildings from 2021 onwards. France In France, an estimated 8.7 % contraction in GDP in 2020 is likely to slightly exceed that of the euro area as a whole. The reason for this was the prolonged and severe lockdown in the spring. Consumption has traditionally been a more important factor for our Gallic neighbour’s economy than Germany’s, for example. When public spending is included, it accounts for almost 77 % of GDP, which is four percentage points higher than the equivalent German ﬁgure. The rapid uptick in new Covid-19 cases is weigh- ing on consumer conﬁdence. The government’s decision to reimpose curfews in an effort to contain the virus will dent the recovery in consumer spending that was already underway. GDP real, % o Consumer prices, % o Unemployment rate, % Source: Helaba Research 2020e 2021f 2022f e = estimate, f = forecast – 0 7.6 0 1.3 8.3 2 1.7 7.6 34 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Italy Help from Brussels Italy, which is beset by weak growth, will receive substantial funds from the EU’s recovery programme. This should help the country to weather the deep recession. It remains to be seen if the Italian government will use the funds to tackle underlying structural problems as well. Italy has a long-term growth problem. In the ten years up to 2019, price-adjusted GDP grew by an average of only 0.3 % per annum. This is partly due to structural problems that have never been Imports are likely to grow only a little bit slower than exports in 2021, especially as domestic demand will be stimulated and the stronger euro will suppress demand from overseas. This means that net exports will once again be a factor limiting economic growth. Overall, though, the French economy should expand by 8 %. The downside of the Covid-19 stimulus measures is the state of public ﬁnances, despite the almost 40 billion euro that France can expect to receive from the EU’s recovery plan. It is not only that the country’s budget deﬁcit will skyrocket from 3 % to an estimated 11 % of GDP in 2020. National debt, which had already reached 98 % in 2019, is also set to soar – to a level of around 120 % of GDP. This will not change signiﬁcantly in 2021, either. If there were ever any serious attempt to reduce these levels, this would then mean abandoning stimulus spending. Dr. Stefan Mütze Italy solved. Then the coronavirus hit and, with it, a slump in GDP of 8.3 % as the country suffered a long and hard lockdown in the spring. Recently, Italy has again resorted to tougher measures in an effort to tackle the second wave of the pandemic. Growth should reach 6 % in 2021, supported by anticipated payments from the EU’s recovery programme. Despite this, overall economic output is not expected to return to its pre-crisis level until 2023. Unemployment, which was under-reported in the spring due to statistical errors, is likely to rise further in the coming months. This will put a damper on consumer spending, especially as there will be almost no increases in collective bargaining wages. The service sector continues to be hit hard, notably the tourist industry. In view of a deterioration in the capital base of many Italian companies – especially SMEs – as a result of the coronavirus 35 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Spain pandemic, a recovery in capital expenditure is only likely to proceed at a very gradual pace. However, the EU is expected to start handing out funds in 2021. Italy is likely to focus on the roughly 65 billion euro that it will receive as non-repayable grants ﬁrst. Including the loans, the total funding provided will amount to as much as 205 billion euro. The government has announced plans to invest in infrastructure projects and in the key areas of digitisation, transitioning to a green economy and education, among others. Italy will see stronger growth up to 2026, even if the implementa- tion of projects may be delayed. The additional growth is likely to reach a maximum of half a percentage point. Even before the decision on EU ﬁnancial support was made, two decrees were issued that laid the groundwork for measures to protect the econ- omy and provide economic stimulus packages. Reforms in the country’s administrative and judicial systems would be necessary in order to increase the effectiveness of the ﬁnancial aid packages and accelerate their implementation. This would enhance the country’s competitiveness. Dr. Stefan Mütze Spain No common strategy Along with Italy, Spain is one of the big beneﬁciaries of EU ﬁnancial assistance. Nevertheless, the economic recovery remains fragile. Politicians are unable to ﬁnd common ground in combatting the crisis. The all-important tourist industry is causing major headaches. In the second quarter of 2020, Spain suffered the most pronounced economic downturn among the euro area’s “big four” and the sub- sequent recovery is on shaky ground. After contracting by 11 %, gross domestic product should grow by 7.5 % in 2021. Govern- ment debt is expected to rise by 25 percentage points to around 120 % of GDP in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 crisis. Italy and Spain below pre-crisis levels for a long time Real ross omes c ro c e Q1 / 200 00 Sources: Macrobond, Helaba Research 75 0 85 0 95 00 0 0 115 20 75 0 85 0 95 00 0 0 115 20 0 0 0 11 2 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2 22 Germa Fra ce Italy ain GDP real, % o Consumer prices, % o Unemployment rate, % Source: Helaba Research 2020e 2021f 2022f e = estimate, f = forecast –8.3 –0 2 9.3 0 0 0 1.7 1.1 9.6 36 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba The job market has already seen an initial stabilisation, although the number of unemployed has risen by 700,000 to over 3.8 million since the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis. This is aggravated by the enormous signiﬁcance of tourism for Spain. This sector, which around 12 % of the workforce depends on, is currently on its knees. There are no signs that European travel restrictions for Spain will be lifted any time soon. In light of this, it comes as no surprise that Spanish consumers feel particularly downbeat compared to other European countries at the moment. Following an above-average decline in consumer spending of around 13 %, only around half of this shortfall is expected to be recouped in 2021. As exports are likely to grow more rapidly than imports, Spanish foreign trade will make a positive contribution to growth. Overall, capital expenditure is likely to show only moderate growth. Given the difﬁcult economic situation for many house- holds, the positive impact of housebuilding activity will remain subdued. Due to underutilised capacities, expansion is not an issue for many companies. However, Spain is one of the major beneﬁciaries of the EU’s recovery programme. Financial assis- tance for Madrid will amount to approximately 140 billion euro. Of this, 72 billion euro are non-repayable grants that will be used ﬁrst. Among other things, the parliament planning includes pro- jects to boost digitisation and measures to promote the transition to a green economy. These programmes should help to raise the productivity of the Spanish economy. It is uncertain, however, whether the minority government will really succeed in bolstering the country’s competitiveness. Even in major crises, Spain’s political parties are scarcely able to reach agreement. The previous conservative government’s budget, which has already been extended twice, is still in effect and a budget for 2021 has yet to be passed. The Spanish govern- ment’s reforming zeal has also run out of steam. For example, in order to contain spiralling costs, the government urgently needs to make changes to the pension system. Dr. Stefan Mütze Spain GDP real, % o Consumer prices, % o Unemployment rate, % Source: Helaba Research 2020e 2021f 2022f e = estimate, f = forecast – 0 –0 15.7 7.5 0 16.5 2 1.1 37 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Sweden Going it alone So far, Sweden has been pursuing its own strategy in tackling the Covid-19 pandemic. This will also deﬁne how the economy performs in 2021. Sweden’s minority government, made up of Social Democrats and Greens, has adhered to recommendations by its chief epidemiolo- gist in imposing neither a lockdown nor mandatory face masks. Shops and cafés have remained open. Moreover, since it started the year with higher economic growth than the EU average, the 2020 recession is forecast to be relatively mild with a contraction of – 4.1 % (EU: – 6.8 %). However, the “Swedish way” has also been the subject of harsh criticism at home and abroad due to the dis- proportionately high number of deaths. Consequently, the economy will have less catching up to do in 2021 than other countries. The public’s fear of Covid-19 infection will continue to hamper the domestic economy and tourism until a vaccine is available. The momentum of the recovery among its Sweden trading partners will also play an important role, given that exports of goods account for about one third of GDP. Overall, a growth rate of 3.2 % can be expected. However, GDP is unlikely to reach its pre-crisis level before 2022. Generous support Support is coming from a wide variety of sources: despite not lowering the repo rate again, the Riksbank did reduce the over- night lending rate to an all-time low of 0.1 %. Monetary policy is strongly accommodative, with bond purchases of up to 10 % of GDP and additional lending facilities for companies and banks. The central bank has already indicated that they intend to remain on this path. Further easing is expected in 2021, should the central bank consider Sweden’s competitiveness at risk due to exchange rate movements, for example. The government has also provided generous ﬁscal relief in 2020 by making subsidies, liquidity support and guarantees available. If fully utilised, they will amount to as much as 17 % of GDP. For the following two years, the government has announced economic stimulus packages of around 2 % of GDP in each case. Marion Dezenter GDP real, % o Consumer prices, % o Unemployment rate, % Source: Helaba Research 2020e 2021f 2022f e = estimate, f = forecast – 0 8.5 2 1.4 8.5 2 2 0 0 38 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary Regulations – no thanks! The strength of the recovery in these countries will be determined by the different structures of their economies. What they have in common is a trend towards (economic) policy independence. With its large domestic economy, Poland is better placed than some other countries to weather the crisis. After the recession in 2020, the economy should expand by 3.5 % in 2021. The Czech Republic, where the automotive industry dominates the econo- my and exports account for 80 % of GDP, has been hit hard by the interruption of supply chains and the closure of manufacturing sites. Although economic activity in important trading partners such as Germany is characterised by signiﬁcant catch-up effects, the slowdown triggered by the second wave of the pandemic in the Czech Republic is having a drastic impact on its economy. Economic growth is likely to reach just above 3 % in 2021. Hungary is similarly dependent on manufacturing. In addition, losses in the key tourism segment are an additional burden and their effects will probably still be felt in 2021. Cross-border travel can be expected to remain subdued in the medium term as well. As a result, economic growth is unlikely to exceed much more than 3.7 % in 2021. Sanctions by “EU nanny state” unwelcome The pandemic has reinforced a trend towards policy independence, particularly in Poland and Hungary. Here, the right-wing populist governments have been pursuing generous as well as patronising policies for years by distributing beneﬁts to anyone who ﬁts into their preferred world view. Central Europe: comparatively modest debt levels o al bl c eb o D Sources: Eurostat, Helaba Research oland Czech Republ c EU 27 H ary 20 0 0 0 00 20 20 0 0 0 00 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 2 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2 22 39 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba At the same time, the EU’s interference in issues concerning the rule of law is perceived as an assault on their independence. Attempts to link subsidy payments from the EU’s recovery plan to rule of law criteria is likely to remain a tricky task. The pandemic has reinforced a trend towards policy independence. Autonomy also shapes monetary policy in all three countries: key interest rates have been cut to (or close to) all-time lows and reserve requirements have been weakened. Central banks in Poland and Hungary have relaxed monetary policy by making large-scale bond purchases. Giving up this autonomy would be difﬁcult, with the result that an accession to the euro area in the near future is even less likely than it was anyway. All three currencies have depreciated against the euro. Exchange rates are signiﬁcantly above their previous average levels, leading to inﬂationary pressure. There is little prospect of any sustained appreciation before the exceptional pandemic situation has subsided. Rising debt burden not without risks Substantial government assistance for companies, loan guaran- tees, tax breaks and other support programmes will leave their mark on public deﬁcits and debt ratios beyond 2020. Parlia- mentary elections in the Czech Republic in October 2021 and in Hungary in April 2022 will push the issue of reducing govern- ment debt further into the background. Government debt levels in all three countries remain well below those of other EU member states. At around 45 %, the Czech Repub- lic’s national debt is even comfortably within the Maastricht limit of 60 % of GDP. However, there is a caveat to this situation. It may well be easy to increase public borrowing in the current phase of low interest rates. Should rates rise, though, a nightmare scenario beck- ons: the need to service a high level of debt would then severely restrict the scope for ﬁscal action. The EU’s helping hand in the form of grants and loans from the Recovery and Resilience Facility, from which the countries are expected to receive payments of between 2 and 4 % of their GDP by the end of 2022, will reduce the strain on national ﬁnances and is therefore a welcome boost – autonomy or not. Marion Dezenter Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary GDP real, % o Consumer prices, % o Unemployment rate, % 2020e – 2 3.6 2021f 3.3 2 0 3.6 2022f 3.4 2 0 2020e – 3.5 4.3 2021f 3.7 2 4.3 2022f 3.3 3.3 3.8 2020e – 3.5 0 2021f 3.5 2 5.9 2022f 3.5 2 5.7 Source: Helaba Research e = estimate, f = forecast 40 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba United Kingdom Liberated from the EU nanny Free at last – that’s what will be on the minds of Brexit hardliners as the transition period expires at the end of 2020. Will it herald the dawn of a brighter future? At the moment, due to the dire impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, things can hardly get much worse for the UK. Despite all of this, the British economy will grow strongly in 2021. However, Brexit will still have negative consequences. After years of torturous negotiations, a ﬁnal decision is due on the future relationship between Britain and the EU – the ofﬁcial withdrawal took place on 31 January 2020. Even if there are still hurdles to overcome, there is a realistic prospect of an agree- ment. From 2021 onwards, exporters and importers will have to adapt to the new reality that will include the imposition of cus- toms formalities. It is inevitable that there will be some difﬁculties to overcome at the border at the beginning of the year. There may be adjustments to standards in trading goods. Trade in services is set to become more difﬁcult. The difference to a “hard” Brexit no longer seems to be that big, at least in the long term. In that case, however, tariffs would be imposed on WTO terms and there would be legal uncertainty and a much longer period of chaos at the border – which would signiﬁcantly reduce British growth in 2021. Brexit burdens predominate The advantages of Brexit are …? Well, perhaps the vague chance of free trade agreements with other countries on more favourable terms. Although the British will be able to regulate more things themselves, this will not apply to areas in which they want to do business with the EU. The notion of Britain becoming a kind of lightly regulated “Singapore-on-Thames” is scarcely something that would be politically acceptable in the UK, either. “Brexit means Britain can no longer blame the EU for nanny state nonsense.” Baylen J. Linnekin, expert on food policy Even the Conservative government is planning additional state intervention. A more complicated border will make the country less attractive as a manufacturing location. There are hardly any other advanced economies for whom exports of services are so important. The EU is not the primary destination here, unlike for goods. But British companies are likely to lose some of their business or proﬁts. This would have a tendency to hamper growth. After all, freedom has its price. EU most important export destination oo s a serv ces e or e rom 20 share Sources: Macrobond, Helaba Research oo s 2 % serv ces 18 % No serv ces 2 % No oo s 2 41 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba United Kingdom Economy to recover from slump The Covid-19 pandemic, which has hit the country particularly hard, means the UK economy is facing an even greater challenge in the short term than Brexit. There will be no repeat of the 10.7 % contraction in 2020 and a recovery has already gathered momen- tum. Consumers are eager to spend again. Government support is providing some relief from loss of income. However, unemploy- ment is expected to rise. In addition, since a number of Covid-19 restrictions will remain in place, and even tightened for limited periods, consumer spending will stay below pre-crisis levels. Even before the coronavirus hit, capital expenditures had been already running in low gear. The rebound after the downturn will continue to be tempered by uncertainties. In the course of 2021, however, investment is likely to pick up noticeably, as there will be more clarity about both the pandemic and Brexit. The UK government has shown itself to be very big spender. But, in view of enormous budget deﬁcits, it will not be able to churn out one new stimulus package after another. Collapsing imports have led to a distinct improvement in the trade balance in 2020. Next year, the balance will deteriorate as country’s ﬁnal exit from the EU takes its toll. Despite all the problems and even with further Covid-19 restrictions or a chaotic end to the Brexit transition period, the British economy will grow in 2021. As long as these burdens can be kept within limits, GDP is expected to grow by 5.7 %. Despite higher Inﬂation – Bank of England stays on course Inﬂation will jump from 1 % to 2.4 % in 2021. Higher energy prices, the abolition of temporary stimulus measures such as speciﬁc VAT cuts, a general recovery in demand and a likely increase in Brexit-in- duced import costs will drive up inﬂation. Since recent talk coming out of the Bank of England seems to be more focused on negative rates, the bank rate of 0.1 % will hardly be raised. However, after the recent increase the bank is expected to terminate its current asset purchase programme at the end of 2021. Christian Apelt, CFA GDP real, % o Consumer prices, % o Unemployment rate, % Source: Helaba Research 2020e 2021f 2022f e = estimate, f = forecast – 0 0 0 5.7 2 2 2 2 2 42 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba United States Uncle Sam will take care of it The US government, Congress and the Federal Reserve have reacted to the pandemic and the economic damage caused by the lockdown with ﬁscal and monetary policy interventions on an unprecedented scale. The record stimulus has very quickly and decisively helped to put the US economy back on a growth trajectory. by 2020 federal debt had already almost reached its previous record level of shortly after World War II (around 106 % of GDP) as a result of the emergency pandemic measures. Based on assumptions in the CBO’s baseline projection (in particular, no changes to tax and spending laws), this ﬁgure would increase further in the coming years. In particular, demographic shifts threaten to accelerate this upward trend which, if nothing is done to stabilise it, would lead to US federal debt rising to almost 150 % of GDP by 2040. Against this backdrop, we expect growth close to 4 % in 2021, which would broadly restore US output to its pre-crisis level by the end of the year. On balance, however, given a trend growth rate of just under 2 % a year, stagnation over 24 months is a poor outcome. The unemployment rate at the end of 2021 is forecast to still be around two percentage points higher than in February 2020. The IMF estimates that the ﬁscal stimulus in 2020 will amount to more than eight percentage points of GDP, compared with just over two percentage points in the 2009 ﬁnancial crisis. Thanks to Uncle Sam, many households even had more money in their pockets in the spring of 2020 than before the crisis. Government stimulus measures for the US economy have probably reached or are already past their peak. The likely next president, the Democrat Joe Biden, has announced substantial spending plans during the election. However, without a majority in Congress it could be hard for him to follow through on all of his promises. For the time being, dealing with the pandemic will be the ﬁrst priority, anyway. Future room for manoeuvre in ﬁscal policy will be limited. According to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Ofﬁce (CBO), 43 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba United States The Federal Reserve stabilised the ﬁnancial markets and lending activities during the crisis and, in our view, even went beyond what was reasonably warranted. However, given the uncertainty about the further course of the pandemic and the persistently very high rate of unemployment, any change of course in the near future is unlikely. Inﬂation probably will not become a headache for the Fed in the short term. We anticipate that headline inﬂation will rise to above 3 % in 2021. However, the assumed increase in the price of crude oil, of just over 50 % by the end of 2021, will be an important driver. The core rate, which excludes energy and food, is also set to rise. Yet, it will probably stay in a range that the Fed is comfortable with – especially since, as part of its strategic review, it now seems to give less weight to price stability than to the goal of full employ- ment. Given the expected economic recovery and the fact that key interest rates will probably remain close to zero for the foreseeable future, the sustainability of US government debt should not be a major issue in 2021. The Fed is therefore likely to phase out its emergency measures over the course of the year. Patrick Franke No sovereign default “Made in USA” It is unlikely that things will ever get that bad. But these ﬁgures underscore the fact that, even without additional tax cuts or spending programmes, government ﬁnances will continue to deteriorate. A further stimulus package is expected in 2021. In contrast to the EU, the ﬁscal measures in the US are still mainly short-term in nature. Nevertheless, ﬁscal policy should evolve from a cyclical tailwind to a headwind in 2021. However, in this highly unusual cycle, the momentum of the recovery is likely to be strong enough to withstand this ﬁscal tightening. “Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country.” John. F. Kennedy (1917 – 1963) USA: Federal debt goes through the roof e eral eb o DP\* Sources: Congressional Budget Ofﬁce, Helaba Research \*“marketable debt held by the public”, from 2020: CBO's baseline projection Worl ar I Worl ar II a c al cr s s ov 0 0 00 0 0 0 00 0 00 20 0 0 0 2000 20 0 GDP real, % o Consumer prices, % o Unemployment rate, % Source: Helaba Research 2020e 2021f 2022f e = estimate, f = forecast – 1.3 0 3.8 3.3 5.8 2 2 0 44 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Japan Ballooning national debt Following a deep recession, modest growth is expected in 2021. Support from economic policy will play a very important role here. September ushered in a change at the helm of the world’s third- largest economy. For the time being, the new government of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga is likely to pursue economic policies that are essentially similar to those of Shinzo Abe. During the so-called “Abenomics” era, the country experienced a long phase of expan- sion with monetary and ﬁscal policy closely aligned. The new government will likely retain the core elements of “Abenomics” for the time being. In order to stimulate the Japanese economy by weakening the yen and to avert deﬂationary tendencies by providing abundant liquidity, the Bank of Japan has adopted an ultra-loose stance and is extremely active in buying government bonds. The central bank now holds almost half of outstanding JGBs. The zero or negative interest rate policy that Japan has been pursuing for around 20 years now makes servicing public debt easier. Major Covid-19 stimulus package Even before the pandemic erupted, Japan was already the most heavily indebted country among the major industrialised nations, with total borrowing accounting for almost 240 % of GDP. Covid- related stimulus measures amount to a total volume of 234 trillion yen (around 2 trillion euro or 40 % of GDP). These measures include the provision of substantial emergency ﬁnancial aid or interest- free corporate loans. Some of these funds are also expected to be used to improve the health care system. Despite this, a severe recession in Japan was inevitable and had already set in during the ﬁnal quarter of 2019 when the govern- ment raised the consumption tax. The Covid-19 lockdown in the spring of 2020 only served to aggravate the situation. Overall, the Japanese economy is expected to grow by 2.2 % in 2021 following a contraction of approximately – 6 % in 2020. A return to pre-crisis levels will likely take some time, especially as Japan continues to grapple with the problem of an ageing population and is heavily impacted by global trade disputes. Ulrike Bischoff GDP real, % o Consumer prices, % o Unemployment rate, % Source: Helaba Research 2020e 2021f 2022f e = estimate, f = forecast – 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 3.3 2 0 2 45 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba China China Proﬁteer from the crisis Origin of the pandemic, key player in the trade conﬂict and increasingly both an enemy and role model for many economic policymakers in industrialised countries – China has rarely been as pivotal as it is today. Contrary to most expectations in the spring of 2020, it currently appears as if the country could prove to be a proﬁteer from the Covid-19 crisis. China suffered a sharp drop in economic activity as a result of imposing a strict lockdown. However, economic growth picked up strongly immediately after this was lifted. As early as the second half of 2020, the country appears to have nearly returned to pre-crisis trend. With the help of additional ﬁscal and monetary stimuli, output is likely to rise by over 9 % in 2021 – the sharpest rise since 2011. Over the entire 2020 / 2021 period, the deviation from the pre-crisis trend should be smaller than in many other countries, not least the United States. As such, the pandemic and its consequences have expedited the pace at which the Chinese economy has been closing the gap to industrialised countries. Regardless of the outcome of the US presidential election, a return to the “good old days” on trade issues is not in the cards. There is no end in sight to the race for dominance in high-tech industries. In addition, China’s government has focused on sup- porting domestic production during the crisis. By contrast, most industrialised countries are primarily stimulating demand. Thus, stimulus measures both by China and by its trading partners will tend to bolster the growth of Chinese exports – creating addi- tional potential for conﬂict. “Crises and opportunities always exist side by side. Once overcome, a crisis is an opportunity.” Xi Jinping In China, the hitherto successful management of the pandemic is interpreted as further proof of its system’s superiority. Criticism from abroad is treated as the envy of those who are not able to beneﬁt from the wisdom and leadership of the Chinese Commu- nist Party. Patrick Franke GDP real, % o Consumer prices, % o Unemployment rate, % Source: Helaba Research 2020e 2021f 2022f e = estimate, f = forecast 1.8 2 3.9 9.3 2 3.9 5.5 2 3.7 46 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Russia Development projects postponed While the Covid-19 lockdown, which was mild by European stand- ards, resulted in high infection rates, the country’s recession in 2020 is expected to be less severe with GDP contracting by 3.8 %. In 2021, Russia will beneﬁt from an increase in the oil price up to 60 US dollar per barrel. The oil and gas industry accounts for a third of GDP and almost two thirds of export revenues. In addition to dependence on commodities, numerous other structural weaknesses limit potential growth, including poor institutional governance, low productivity growth and a gloomy business environment. That is why we only anticipate a weak recovery of 3 % in 2021, meaning that pre-crisis levels will prob- ably not be reached. Although Russia can boast fundamentally sound public ﬁnances and its total debt has risen by seven percentage points to a mere 20 % of GDP due to Covid-19, the country suffers from a low revenue base of only 16 % of GDP. Consequently, no major impetus for growth can be expected from ﬁscal policy, since 2020 saw revenues decline by 35 billion US dollar, primarily due to the low price of oil. Diversiﬁcation of the economy still a long time coming. Due to the need to reduce spending, the completion of the “13 national projects”, an important prestige initiative by Putin, has now also been postponed by six years to 2030. These projects comprise a total investment of 360 billion US dollar. The decision to push back the projects does not bode well for already weak investment growth and will also delay the diversi- ﬁcation of the economy. Russians will also have to wait six years longer before the government is able to deliver on its promises of halving poverty and increasing life expectancy. Following an amendment to the constitution in 2020, President Putin could even still be in ofﬁce then. Patrick Heinisch GDP real, % o Consumer prices, % o Unemployment rate, % Source: Helaba Research 2020e 2021f 2022f e = estimate, f = forecast –3.8 3.8 0 0 0 5.6 2 0 3.7 4.4 47 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Brazil Pre-election goodies expected Although an economic recovery took hold in the second half of 2020, the shock of the pandemic is still reverberating. As a result, considerably fewer new jobs are likely to be created in 2021 than were lost in the previous year. Although unemployment will fall, it will still be two percentage points higher than before Covid-19 at around 13 %. This is disastrous for Brazil because, unlike many other South American countries, the economy has traditionally been more dependent on consumer spending (64 % of GDP) than on exports (about one third of GDP). An economic slump of – 4.5 % in 2020 will be followed by a modest recovery of 4.8 % in 2021. President Bolsonaro is already looking ahead to his re-election in October 2022. Despite the coronavirus pandemic, he has suc- ceeded in boosting his approval rating by handing out beneﬁts to poorer sections of the population. The president is also likely to continue to style himself as a charitable patriarch and leave the necessary lockdown measures to the governors. 2020 was a year of wasted opportunities for economic reforms. Bolsonaro and his Minister of the Economy, Guedes, were still being celebrated by the business community when they took ofﬁce. But apart from a pension reform at the end of 2019, they have so far failed to enact any signiﬁcant measures. We also expect little progress in 2021, as the president will avoid unpopular projects just before an election year. Nevertheless, we anticipate some minor efﬁciency improvements in the public sector, simpliﬁ- cations to the tax regime and privatisations. Budget consolidation and reforms must wait until pandemic ends. The consolidation of public ﬁnances will shift back into focus in 2021. Due to the budget deﬁcit of 16 % of GDP, Brazil’s national debt is set to approach 100 % in 2020. The high level of debt was already an issue before the pandemic. Although the pension reform is helping to reduce expenditure, additional efforts are now needed. It is unlikely that the primary budget will be almost balanced, as it was in 2019, until after the elections. Patrick Heinisch Brazil – 4.5 2 16.7 4.8 2 2 2 3.6 9.4 GDP real, % o Consumer prices, % o Unemployment rate, % Source: Helaba Research 2020e 2021f 2022f e = estimate, f = forecast 48 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Poltergeist (20 %) 3 Negative scenario Poltergeist (20 %) No sooner had the haunting by populists and protectionists seemed to have faded somewhat that the pandemic brought back an object of dread from the dark days of human history. Because they are invisible to the naked eye, some people believe just as little in the existence of the virus as they do in that of poltergeists. But this scepticism does nothing to change the threat they pose – and banishing them is anything but a simple matter. We assign a probability of 20 % to this scenario. It has rarely been easier to justify a negative scenario for the economy and for ﬁnancial markets than it is today. Without a vaccine, a return to normality is almost inconceivable for the foreseeable future. Prolonged restrictions on economic and social activities and consumer uncertainty could turn this reces- sion into a “double dip”: a rare phenomenon in which, after a temporary recovery, the economy goes downhill again. Complete and repeated national lockdowns stop growth cold. In this difﬁcult environment, the German economy shrinks again in 2021 – a disaster coming on the heels of the 2020 contraction. The global economy also suffers another year of recession. The absence of a sustained recovery would exacerbate the second- round effects of the crisis, which had previously been muted in their severity: business failures, job losses, over-indebtedness, struggling households. Entire industries could be decimated. 49 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba A haunting from the past In addition, a protracted slump would fan the ﬂames of the more unsavoury political tendencies of recent years. At least since 2016, with Brexit and the election of Don- ald Trump, we have witnessed political turmoil of a magnitude that could hardly have been imagined before. A sustained and pronounced drift towards isolationism, whether for nationalistic reasons (“Buy American!”) or to promote regional econo- mies (“Buy regional!”), would be toxic for the global economy. The consequence could be downward spirals of protection- ism and devaluation, last seen in the 1930s, if governments seek to “secure” a larger share of demand for their domestic producers. Today, however, economies are signiﬁcantly more intertwined than back then and the costs of de-globalisation would be colossal. “They’re here.” From the ﬁlm “Poltergeist” (ranked 69th out of the “100 best ﬁlm quotes”, American Film Institute) At the same time, other trends are busy playing out in the shadows that will inevitably entail costs and hardships and in which policy errors may prove very expensive, especially in a period of economic weakness: regulations to combat climate change, the race for technological dominance, the ongoing debate on raising taxes on (digital) com- panies or saddling businesses with excessive red tape. One example is the German Supply Chain Act, which contin- ues to be advanced – despite the eco- nomic crisis – as if it were on autopilot. There are obvious dangers in this respect, not least of all on the level of the EU. Regional parliaments have the power to block international trade agreements for around 450 million EU citizens. With the departure of the United Kingdom, a propo- nent of the free market with relatively liber- al economic policies is leaving the Union. The debate in Brussels is increasingly turning towards an industrial policy of “national champions” and, in an environ- ment of rising unemployment, the notion of competition is fast becoming unfashion- able. At the same time, vociferous calls for a far-reaching communitisation of nation- al debt or measures to tackle so-called “tax dumping” may lead to divisions in the Union. In the classic 1982 movie, houses had been built on the site of an old cemetery, causing the apperance of the poltergeists. The sins of the past come back to haunt the protagonists. A hitherto nonchalant approach to protectionist tendencies (chlorinated chickens!) makes it harder to ﬁrmly confront them now. On top of that, debts in the public and private sectors, which had already reached high levels in most countries in 2008 and, in most cases, have continued to accumulate since the ﬁnancial crisis, take their revenge. Mount- ing private debt leads to a reluctance to invest, while public debt signiﬁcantly re- stricts governments’ room for manoeuvre and the effectiveness of ﬁscal policy. “Whoever ﬁghts monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster.” Friedrich Nietzsche (1844 – 1900) In this scenario, central banks are under additional pressure to keep interest rates low or cut them even further in order to mobilise the last modicum of stimulus and to stabilise escalating debt ratios. It is conceivable that they would pursue novel strategies, such as extreme versions of “forward guidance”, yield curve control or even helicopter money. Overview of forecasts in the negative scenario The economic recovery that got underway in the third quarter of 2020 is interrupted. Although it is resumed after a delay in the course of 2021, annual average gross domestic product in Germany and the 50 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba euro area declines again. The US economy is likely to virtually stagnate. The economic setback puts a damper on price increases, but inﬂation rates remain in positive territory. However, bonds beneﬁt from a tailwind. The ECB lowers the deposit rate and launches another expansion of its pur- chase programmes. Due to the persis- tently high level of uncertainty, safe invest- ment havens such as US Treasuries and German government bonds are in demand. The yield on 10-year German government bonds ends the year in deeply negative territory at – 0.8 %. The yield curve is temporarily inverted. The poor state of the economy piles further pressure on the ﬁnancial proﬁles of corpo- rates. A renewed rise in risk premiums is likely. This is reﬂected in another phase of rising impairments on loans and ﬁnancial assets at banks. For the most part, covered bonds remain resilient and in strong de- mand, but growing fundamental risks lead to greater differentiation among bonds with low risk premiums. On balance, the outlook for corporate earnings does not recover in 2021 from its previous collapse. Despite the wide- spread deployment of monetary policy and a lack of investment alternatives, investors’ risk aversion rises signiﬁcantly. This results in considerable valuation discounts on equities. The DAX falls into a range around the 10,000-point mark. Real estate prices and rents see across- the-board falls in the commercial seg- ment. Signiﬁcant declines in prices not only hit retail properties but affect ofﬁce buildings as well. The housing market remains comparatively stable, but further price increases are not expected in this fragile environment. As a safe haven currency, gold reaches new record highs. Since monetary and ﬁscal policy advances into even more unorthodox areas, the precious metal has its sights on the 3,000 US dollar per troy ounce mark. Once again, the US dollar beneﬁts from a challenging environment, even if eco- nomic problems in the United States are hardly less severe. However, the euro is additionally impacted by increasing political conﬂicts within the monetary union and is the “winner” in a global devaluation contest. The euro-dollar exchange rate falls to parity. Patrick Franke Poltergeist disturbs the recovery Sources: Macrobond, Helaba Research ro area D e /20 00 va ar Na y Pol er e s 0 0 0 11 2 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2 22 0 85 0 95 00 0 0 85 0 95 00 0 51 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Avatar (10 %) 4 Positive scenario Avatar (10 %) Among our three scenarios, it is the positive one that changes least from year to year. This is not due to a lack of imagination, but to the notion of an optimistic but plausible economic outlook that only gradually evolves. In computer games, avatars are often idealised versions of the players that sometimes possess superhuman qualities. In this sense, we always project our hopes into the positive scenario, to which we assign a probability of 10 % this time. A necessary condition for such a scenario to come to pass in 2021 is for the virus to be defeated, the sooner the better. Whether this is achieved with a vaccine or through restrictions on social interaction, as in China or South Korea, is not of primary impor- tance in this respect. Yet, although in itself a catastrophically negative shock, the pan- demic could also trigger lasting and positive processes. After such a severe downturn, it does not take a genius to realise that there is potential for a strong rebound in 2021. But a slump as extreme as this may also act as a catalyst for developments that were previ- ously impeded by the forces of inertia or by other factors. The sudden ﬂexibility in the workplace or the use of digital technology, which many former sceptics now ﬁnd appealing due to the need for social distancing and remote working arrangements, are just a few exam- ples that immediately spring to mind. 52 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Digitisation – the next “boss ﬁght” Studies have shown that the outward appearance of an avatar in games often inﬂuences a player’s actions – the so-called Proteus effect: A noble appearance encourages noble deeds. This psycho- logical tendency can readily be transferred to an economic scenario. In a positive environment, those in charge act better. Or, as econo- mists like to say, it makes a universally better equilibrium possible. In Germany, room for improvement is particularly evident in the high-tech segment. Instead of attacking the so-called “internet giants” for their potentially anti-competitive practices, would it not be better to ask: Why were almost all of these companies started in the United States? What can or must other countries do in order to achieve a similar level of success in these areas? “Good science is good observation.” From the movie “Avatar” Germany lags behind global leaders in this ﬁeld. In this regard, the conversation is too often limited to the issue of inadequate public investment. But companies, especially in increasingly key service sectors, also have a poor record compared to other parts of the world. According to ﬁgures from the OECD, the share of high-tech as a proportion of total investment in Germany has been declining since its peak in the year 2000. The most recent data suggest that it was below the OECD average and was considerably higher in France, for instance. However, this indicates that there is a poten- tial for catch-up which, if tapped, should considerably drive future growth. The future will one day be the present and will seem as unimportant as the present does now. William Somerset Maugham (1874 – 1965) Even prevailing global imbalances, rather than sparking trade disputes, may give rise to constructive reforms in deﬁcit and surplus countries. Germany, for example, could improve condi- tions for domestic investment and thereby reduce the incentives to export capital. In circumstances like these, even higher growth rates than in our baseline scenario could be achieved in 2021. Although this would be associated with signiﬁcant additional inﬂationary pressure, investment that increases productivity would have a disinﬂationary effect over the medium term. Given the extreme starting points, neither ﬁscal nor monetary policy could be quickly returned to normal and would have a pro-cyclical impact for a longer period of time. Rising tax revenues as a result of strong growth would rapidly bring government deﬁcits back down. Interest rate hikes would not be postponed ad inﬁnitum any more. Overview of forecasts in the positive scenario The economic recovery that started in 2020 picks up steam overthe course of 2021. Germany and the euro area achieve record economic growth. The United States also expands much more strongly than in the baseline scenario. In the wake of this dynamic rebound, consumer prices could rise by more than 2 % in the euro area, by over 3 % in Germany and by around 4 % in the United States. Despite a changed environment, the ECB keeps its key interest rates stable, resulting in a steep yield curve for German bonds. Purchase programmes on both sides of the Atlantic are suspended. 53 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba The yield on 10-year German government bonds breaks out of negative territory due to a sharp rise in inﬂation expectations and climbs to 0.75 % by the end of 2021. Favourable economic conditions provide corporates with noticeably more breathing space. Having recognised extensive write- downs on their loan books during the Cov- id-19 crisis, banks are even in a position to reverse loan loss provisions. Despite the fact that unsecured bank bonds become more attractive in some cases, covered bonds remain well sup- ported thanks to supply being under maturity levels and reinvestment by the Eurosystem. Strong economic expansion leads to signiﬁcant increases in sales and fully utilised capacities. Companies take advantage of scope for price increases to boost proﬁt margins. As a result, their net proﬁts see above-average growth. In view of investors’ increasing appetite for risk, valuations expand and the DAX shoots past 16,000 points. The rapid recovery from the crisis reduces pressure on the real estate market. While the impact on the ofﬁce market remains very limited, retail properties continue to suffer from the onward march of e-com- merce, despite an improved economic environment. The longstanding boom on the German residential property market goes into extra time with house prices seeing sharp rises. Gold loses its aura as a safe haven currency as its attractiveness relative to equities and bonds declines once the crisis is over. Despite extremely high levels of national debt and rising inﬂation, the precious metal is likely to dip below 1,500 US dollar per troy ounce. The thriving economy is particularly supportive to the euro, especially since Europe also lays the structural ground- work for further growth. In addition, with imbalances within the monetary union receding, conﬁdence in the single currency improves. The euro-dollar exchange rate rises to 1.35. Patrick Franke a s r a h a ra ce lova a a a a erla love a Automation as an opportunity Sources: International Federation of Robotics, Helaba Research Robo e s mber o robo s er 0 000 or ers ma ac r s r 20 918 855 364 346 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 194 191 189 187 177 169 165 161 157 a ore o h orea a a erma e e De mar Ho o a a USA al el . /Lux. Ne herla s 54 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Change since 31.12.2019 Current \* Q1 / 2021 Q2 / 2021 Q3 / 2021 Q4 / 2021 basis points interest rate, % ECB deposit facitlity rate 0 – 0.50 – 0.50 – 0.50 – 0.50 – 0.50 Overnight rate €STR\*\* – 3 – 0.56 – 0.50 – 0.50 – 0.50 – 0.50 3M Euribor – 13 – 0.52 – 0.50 – 0.45 – 0.45 – 0.40 2y Bunds – 19 – 0.79 – 0.70 – 0.70 – 0.65 – 0.60 5y Bunds – 34 – 0.82 – 0.65 – 0.55 – 0.40 – 0.40 10y Bunds – 45 – 0.64 – 0.40 – 0.30 – 0.20 – 0.20 30y Bunds – 58 – 0.23 0.00 0.15 0.25 0.30 10y swap rate – 48 – 0.27 – 0.05 0.05 0.15 0.20 Federal funds rate\*\*\* – 150 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 10y Treasuries – 115 0.76 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.20 in local currency, % index DAX – 7.0 12,324 13,300 13,600 13,800 14,000 EURO STOXX 50 – 15.6 3,161 3,420 3,470 3,520 3,550 S&amp;P 500 6.6 3,443 3,600 3,650 3,700 3,750 Nikkei 225 0.2 23,695 25,500 26,000 26,500 27,000 % price Brent crude $ / bbl – 37.5 41 53 60 63 64 Gold $ / oz 25.4 1,903 1,800 2,000 1,800 2,000 Gold € / oz 19.9 1,623 1,500 1,667 1,440 1,600 vs. Euro, % exchange rate US dollar – 4.4 1.17 1.20 1.20 1.25 1.25 Japanese yen – 0.6 123 125 125 128 128 British pound – 6.3 0.90 0.88 0.85 0.85 0.85 Swiss franc 1.5 1.07 1.10 1.10 1.12 1.12 Swedish krona 1.9 10.30 10.30 10.20 10.10 10.00 Chinese yuan 0.3 7.79 7.92 7.92 8.13 8.13 Forecast horizon at end … Financial markets forecasts Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research \* 4.11.2020 \*\* Eonia = €STR + 8,5 bp \*\*\* mid-point of target range 55 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Gross domestic product Real change, % yoy Consumer prices Change, % yoy Budget balance % of GDP 2019 2020e 2021f 2022f 2019 2020e 2021f 2022f 2019 2020e 2021f 2022f Euro area 1.3 – 6.8 6.3 2.1 1.2 0.3 1.4 1.6 – 0.6 – 8.9 – 5.0 – 3.0 Germany 0.6 – 5.4 5.0 2.0 1.4 0.5 1.9 2.0 1.5 – 6.5 – 3.5 – 2.5 France 1.5 – 8.7 8.0 2.3 1.3 0.5 1.3 1.7 – 3.0 – 11.0 – 7.0 – 5.0 Italy 0.3 – 8.3 6.0 1.7 0.6 – 0.2 0.8 1.1 – 1.6 – 12.0 – 6.0 – 4.0 Spain 2.0 – 11.0 7.5 2.5 0.8 – 0.4 0.6 1.1 – 2.9 – 13.0 – 7.0 – 5.0 Netherlands 1.6 – 5.0 4.0 2.5 2.7 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.7 – 5.5 – 2.2 – 0.5 Austria 1.4 – 7.1 3.9 3.2 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.7 0.7 – 10.0 – 5.5 – 2.7 Ireland 5.9 – 2.0 4.0 3.5 0.9 – 0.4 0.9 1.5 0.4 – 6.0 – 4.0 – 1.0 Portugal 2.2 – 8.0 5.5 2.4 0.3 – 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.2 – 6.7 – 3.8 – 1.0 Greece 1.9 – 7.5 5.0 2.8 0.5 – 0.3 1.0 1.2 1.5 – 6.8 – 4.0 – 3.0 Sweden 1.3 – 4.1 3.2 2.8 1.8 0.5 1.4 2.0 0.3 – 5.5 – 3.5 – 1.5 Norway 1.2 – 3.3 3.0 2.4 2.2 1.4 2.3 1.8 6.5 – 6.0 0.0 2.8 Poland 4.6 – 4.1 3.5 3.5 2.3 3.5 2.1 2.4 – 0.7 – 10.0 – 3.8 – 3.5 Czech Republic 2.3 – 7.4 3.3 3.4 2.8 3.2 2.0 2.3 0.3 – 7.8 – 4.0 – 2.5 Hungary 4.6 – 6.9 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.3 – 2.1 – 6.7 – 4.2 – 3.0 United Kingdom 1.3 – 10.7 5.7 2.5 1.8 1.0 2.4 2.3 – 2.1 – 15.0 – 9.0 – 6.0 Switzerland 1.1 – 3.7 3.5 2.2 0.4 – 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.5 – 4.2 – 1.4 – 0.6 United States 2.2 – 3.6 3.8 2.5 1.8 1.3 3.3 2.5 – 6.3 – 20.0 – 10.0 – 6.0 Japan 0.7 – 6.2 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.5 – 3.3 – 14.0 – 8.0 – 6.0 Asia ex Japan 4.7 – 1.0 7.7 5.0 2.9 2.6 2.5 3.3 – 3.8 – 10.0 – 9.4 – 8.4 China 5.8 1.8 9.3 5.5 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.5 – 6.3 – 12.0 – 12.0 – 11.0 India 4.2 – 9.6 10.1 6.2 3.7 5.7 3.8 4.2 – 4.6 – 7.0 – 6.5 – 5.4 Russia 1.3 – 3.8 3.0 2.0 4.8 3.8 4.0 3.7 2.1 – 4.0 – 1.8 – 1.0 Turkey 0.9 – 4.0 4.6 3.7 15.6 10.7 10.0 8.5 – 2.9 – 5.2 – 4.2 – 3.8 Latin America 1.4 – 7.3 4.6 3.0 8.3 6.5 7.2 6.4 – 3.7 – 10.4 – 5.6 – 3.8 Brazil 1.1 – 4.5 4.8 2.7 3.8 2.3 2.6 3.6 – 5.9 – 16.3 – 6.8 – 4.8 World 3.0 – 3.6 5.9 3.6 2.9 2.2 2.9 3.0 – – – – Sources: EIU, Macrobond, Datastream, Helaba Research GDP growth working day adjusted if available; e = estimate, f = forecast Gross domestic product, inﬂation, budget balance 56 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Helaba Addresses Head Ofﬁces Frankfurt am Main Neue Mainzer Strasse 52 – 58 60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany T + 49 69 / 91 32-01 Erfurt Bonifaciusstrasse 16 99084 Erfurt Germany T + 49 3 61 / 2 17-71 00 Bausparkasse Landesbausparkasse Hessen-Thüringen Offenbach Kaiserleistrasse 29 – 35 63067 Offenbach Germany T + 49 69 / 91 32-03 Erfurt Bonifaciusstrasse 19 99084 Erfurt Germany T + 49 3 61 / 2 17-70 07 Development Bank Wirtschafts- und Infrastrukturbank Hessen Kaiserleistrasse 29 – 35 63067 Offenbach Germany T + 49 69 / 91 32-03 Branch Ofﬁces Düsseldorf Uerdinger Strasse 88 40474 Düsseldorf Germany T + 49 2 11 / 3 01 74-0 Kassel Ständeplatz 17 34117 Kassel Germany T + 49 5 61 / 7 06-60 London 3rd Floor 95 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4HN United Kingdom T + 44 20 / 73 34-45 00 New York 420, Fifth Avenue New York, N.Y. 10018 USA T + 1 2 12 / 7 03-52 00 Paris 4 – 8 rue Daru 75008 Paris France T + 33 1 / 40 67-77 22 Stockholm Kungsgatan 3, 2nd Floor 111 43 Stockholm Sweden T + 46 / 86 11 01 16 Representative Ofﬁces Madrid (für Spanien und Portugal) General Castaños, 4 Bajo Dcha. 28004 Madrid Spain T + 34 91 / 39 11-0 04 Moscow Regus BC Voentorg, 3rd Floor, Ofﬁce 311 10, Vozdvizhenka Street 125009 Moskau Russian Federation T + 7 4 95 / 7 97-36-51 São Paulo Av. das Nações Unidas, 12.399 Conj. 105 B – Brooklin Novo São Paulo – SP Brazil 04578-000 T + 55 11 / 3405-3180 Shanghai Unit 012, 18th Floor Hang Seng Bank Tower 1000 Lujiazui Ring Road Shanghai, 200120 China T + 86 21 / 68 77 77 08 Singapore One Temasek Avenue #05 – 04 Millenia Tower Singapore 039192 T + 65 / 62 38 04 00 57 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Sparkasse S-Group Bank Ofﬁces Berlin Joachimsthaler Strasse 12 10719 Berlin Germany T + 49 30 / 2 06 18 79-13 52 Hamburg Neuer Wall 30 20354 Hamburg Germany T + 49 1 51 / 29 26 83 81 Sales Ofﬁces Munich Lenbachplatz 2 a 80333 Munich Germany T + 49 89 / 5 99 88 49-10 16 Münster Regina-Protmann-Strasse 16 48159 Münster Germany T + 49 2 51 / 92 77 63-01 Stuttgart Kronprinzstrasse 11 70173 Stuttgart Germany T + 49 7 11 / 28 04 04-0 Real Estate Ofﬁces Berlin Joachimsthaler Strasse 12 10719 Berlin Germany T + 49 30 / 2 06 18 79-13 14 Munich Lenbachplatz 2 a 80333 Munich Germany T + 49 89 / 5 99 88 49-0 Selected Subsidiaries Frankfurter Sparkasse Neue Mainzer Strasse 47– 53 60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany T + 49 69 / 26 41-0 1822direkt Gesellschaft der Frankfurter Sparkasse mbH Borsigallee 19 60388 Frankfurt am Main Germany info@1822direkt.com T + 49 69 / 9 41 70-0 Frankfurter Bankgesellschaft (Deutschland) AG JUNGHOF Junghofstrasse 26 60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany T + 49 69 / 1 56 86-0 Frankfurter Bankgesellschaft (Schweiz) AG Börsenstrasse 16 8001 Zürich Switzerland T + 41 44 / 2 65 44 44 Helaba Invest Kapitalanlagegesellschaft mbH JUNGHOF Junghofstrasse 24 60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany T + 49 69 / 2 99 70-0 GWH Wohnungsgesellschaft mbH Hessen Westerbachstrasse 33 60489 Frankfurt am Main Germany T + 49 69 / 9 75 51-0 OFB Projektentwicklung GmbH Speicherstrasse 55 60327 Frankfurt am Main Germany T + 49 69 / 9 17 32-01 GGM Gesellschaft für Gebäude- Management mbH Speicherstrasse 55 60327 Frankfurt am Main Germany T + 49 69 / 9 17 32-9 00 58 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Imprint Helaba Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen Research Dr. Gertrud R. Traud, Chief Economist / Head of Research Editors: Dr. Stefan Mitropoulos, Barbara Bahadori Neue Mainzer Strasse 52 – 58, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany T + 49 69 / 91 32-01 Bonifaciusstrasse 16, 99084 Erfurt, Germany T + 49 3 61 / 2 17-71 00 www.helaba.com/int This publication was very carefully researched and prepared. However, it contains analyses and forecasts regarding current and future market conditions that are for informational purposes only. The data are based on sources that we consider reliable, though we cannot assume any responsibility for the sources being accurate, complete, and up-to-date. All statements in this publication are for informational purposes. They must not be taken as an offer or recommendation for investment decisions. Concepts and design La Mina GmbH, Darmstadt, Germany Printed by Druckerei Braun &amp; Sohn, Maintal, Germany Photo credits Getty Images: p. 7, 51, © Colin Anderson Productions pty ltd; p. 37, © Martin Botvidsson; p. 42, © Tetra Images iStock: Cover (U1), p. 6, p. 8, Toa55, kieferpix, Gladiathor; p. 5, TARIK KIZILKAYA; p. 7, 48, Cherry-Merry, melkerw, KatarzynaBialasiewicz, archideaphoto; p. 7, 51, mysticenergy; p. 14, KurKestutis; p. 16, tomazl; p. 20, PhotoInc; p. 23, AsiaVision; p. 24, encrier; p. 26, Image Source, mbaysan, Vimvertigo, t\_trifonoff, akova, Six\_Characters; p. 28, jacoblund; p. 31, skynesher; p. 33, FamVeld; p. 35, Martinan; p. 36, ﬁzkes; p. 41, gbrundin; p. 42, serts, FatCamera; p. 44, ake1150sb; p. 45, lovleah, djedzura, kool99; p. 46, esolla; p. 47, G&amp;J Fey; Cover (U3), ljubaphoto Shutterstock: p. 18, Alexandr Grant; p. 26, David Hanlon; p. 38, ﬁzkes Jürgen Mai: Cover (U2), © Jürgen Mai Authors Christian Apelt Barbara Bahadori Ulrike Bischoff Marion Dezenter Patrick Franke Patrick Heinisch Ulrich Kirschner Dr. Susanne E. Knips Ulf Krauss Sabrina Miehs Dr. Stefan Mitropoulos Dr. Stefan Mütze Markus Reinwand Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Ralf Umlauf Claudia Windt Translation Christopher Hanna 59 Helaba Research | November / December 2020 | © Helaba Helaba Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen Neue Mainzer Strasse 52 – 58 60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany T +49 69 / 91 32 - 01 F +49 69 / 29 15 17 Bonifaciusstrasse 16 99084 Erfurt Germany T +49 3 61 / 2 17 - 71 00 F +49 3 61 / 2 17 - 71 01 www.helaba.com/int

In these unusual and uncertain times, Helaba's economic and capital market outlook explores the question of "who is going to lead us into the future?" With this in mind, Markets and Trends 2021 presents a selection of characters that could show us the way ahead. The main scenario is entitled "A helping hand from Nanny". But the "Poltergeist" (the negative alternative scenario) and the "Avatar" (the positive alternative scenario) may also prove to be influential personas as well.