---
title: "SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update"
url: https://www.helaba.com/en/ssa-and-financials-weekly-market-update-27
type: dd_research
language: en
updated: 2026-09-28
keywords: Renten, Weekly Market Update_englisch
---

# SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update

Focus on: SSA & Financials 20 October 2022 © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 20 October 2022 1 of 7 Research & Advisory Weekly Market Update Primary market environment: The upcoming ECB meeting is already casting its shadow. In view of rising core inflation, there will probably be no pause in the rate hike cycle. Overall, risk aver- sion in the market as a whole has eased somewhat. In the case of energy prices, the momentum of the recent decline is easing. Our risk trend indicator is dominated by the colour red. This shows that despite a recent improvement in overall market sentiment, there is no basis for an all-clear. Primary market barometer The SSA segment remains in demand as a low-risk asset. The country is- sues have all gone through. Overall, however, the success of new place- ments is strongly dependent on bond maturities. Anything over 5 years is currently almost impossible to place. The search for quality assets contin- ued despite a recent improvement in overall market sentiment. In addition, covered bonds remain the banks' preferred refinancing instrument. Short maturities in particular are very popular with investors. The primary market environment for senior unsecured bank bonds has brightened in recent days. Smaller is- suers were also able to operate suc- cessfully in the market, although high spread concessions are still neces- sary. Covered Bonds Senior Unsecured SSA Risk trend indicator urges caution Spread trend indicator\*, ASWspread change versus … \*ASW levels standardized and 2T-smoothed, since 14.2.22 changed calculation of ASW levels by Markit. Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory IBOXX EURO 1 day 1 week 4 week 13 weeks 52 weeks 104 weeks Germany 0,19 0,67 -0,08 0,39 -1,71 -2,24 European Union 0,22 0,81 0,94 1,05 1,75 1,04 Germany Covered -0,06 0,27 0,05 -0,08 0,56 -0,11 EU Covered -0,01 0,08 0,04 0,02 0,32 0,13 Banks senior preferred 0,09 0,51 0,72 0,92 2,94 2,12 Banks senior bail-in (SNP) 0,09 0,51 0,76 1,20 3,12 2,18 Banks subordinated -0,01 0,18 0,62 0,91 2,91 1,86 Supranational 0,12 0,58 0,50 0,41 0,96 0,24 Agencies 0,15 0,61 0,30 0,07 -0,50 -0,97 Sub-Sovereigns Germany 0,04 0,28 0,08 -0,37 -1,06 -1,68 Sub-Sovereigns 0,11 0,60 0,41 0,00 0,05 -0,81 strong middle weak unchanged weak middle strong spread widening spread tightening Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 20 October 2022 2 of 7 SSA The focus continues to be on "low-risk assets". The issues of the federal states have all gone through. The EUR 2.5 billion bond placed today by the state of NRW hit the mark with its 5-year ma- turity. With an order book of EUR 8.4 billion (incl. JLM), the original marketing spread was narrowed by 2 bps to MS-12. Overall, around 80% of new issues currently have a maturity of up to 5 years, the "sound barrier" settling just above this mark. Longer maturities can hardly be placed in the current market environment. Given the under- performance of the long end on the secondary market, this is hardly surprising. Thus, the last EU is trading around 11 bp wider and sentiment is clearly clouding over. Overall, it seems, high oversubscription rates in the primary market are now a thing of the past. KfW barely made it across the finish line with a book-to-cover ratio (B/C) of 1.1. The ESM (B/C 2.1) and BPI Financement (B/C 2.0) fared better in this respect, although new issue premiums of 3 and 5 bps respectively had to be offered. Outlook: The coming week will be dominated by the ECB's interest rate decision. In this respect, possible primary market activities will be limited to the time window from Monday to Wednesday. Covered Bonds Issuing activity in the covered bond seg- ment continues unabated. Since Mon- day, seven benchmark covered bonds with a volume of EUR 7.25 billion have been placed. The 3-year transac- tion of the French Société Générale stood out and generated strong demand among investors. The EUR 1.5 billion issue was ultimately priced at MS+2 after going to market at MS+8. Without a doubt, the short maturity proved to be an advantage. It is worth noting that this was already the Bank's fourth benchmark covered issue this year, bringing the total placement volume to EUR 5.75 billion. Berlin Hyp issued a 5-year Pfandbrief with a volume of EUR 750 million at MS+2, reducing the price by 4 bps compared to the original indication. Outlook: The upcoming ECB meeting will also have an impact on the primary market in Covereds, limiting the issu- ance window to the first half of the week. suers October 2022). The rest of the year will be very bumpy according to our trading assessment. Price dislocations and poor overall market liquidity in the secondary market as well as the massively narrowed Bund/swap spread contribute to this, as do uncertainties regarding possible TLTRO changes. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3,000% Bayerische Landesboden-Kreditanstalt Aaa /-/- 0,250 Mrd. 21.10.2032 ms -9 Bp 17.10.2022 0,320 Mrd. ms - 9 area 1,000% ESM Aa1 /AAA/AAA 2,000 Mrd. 23.06.2027 ms -25 Bp 16.05.2022 12,700 Mrd. ms - 22 area 2,500% KFW Aaa /AAA/AAA 3,000 Mrd. 19.11.2025 ms -46 Bp 18.10.2022 3,200 Mrd. ms - 46 area 3,375% Bpifrance Financement Aa2 /-/AA 1,250 Mrd. 25.11.2032 FRTRs +58 Bp 18.10.2022 2,100 Mrd. FRTRs +60 area 3,000% FMO The Development Bank of the Netherlands - /AAA/AAA 0,500 Mrd. 25.10.2027 ms -12 Bp 18.10.2022 1,000 Mrd. ms - 11 area 3m€+0 Bp Berlin Aa1 /-/AAA 0,500 Mrd. 27.01.2027 not disclosed 19.10.2022 not disclosed not disclosed 3,000% NRW Aa1 /AA/AAA 2,500 Mrd. 27.01.2028 . 20.10.2022 8,400 Mrd. . Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € SSA issues week of 17 October 2022 Natural Gas (TTF) 1-Month Forward - Is the downward trend coming to an end? EUR/MWh Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 13.07.2022 13.08.2022 13.09.2022 13.10.2022 Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 20 October 2022 3 of 7 Senior Unsecured The primary market environment for senior unsecured bank bonds has improved slightly in the past few days, although securities can still only be placed with investors with high spread concessions and shorter maturities are generally preferred. Issuing activity picked up again on Tuesday. Banco Commercial Portugues managed to fill the book well with EUR 850 million for its three-year EUR 350 million non-callable sen- ior preferred bond. However, the coupon was high at 8.5% and the new issue premium at 25 bps. Nevertheless, other banks from the European periphery could follow suit and also become active on the primary market in the near future if there is still a need for refinancing. Yesterday, RBI also placed a EUR 500 million SP bond at MS+270. The cash market could not follow the good sentiment in the other market segments and traded significantly wider on a weekly basis. The pref segment widened by an average of 12-15 bps, with no jurisdiction able to escape. The non-prefs recorded a spread widening of 20 bp on average. For German banks, this was even more pronounced at 25 bp. Flows are mainly on the bid side, real money remains the seller, but the volumes are smaller and are still being digested to some extent by the dealers. Outlook: The bank reporting season for Q3 2022 starts and so does the black-out period. As already mentioned here, problem loan ratios and interest rate results will be of particular interest. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3,125% BPCE SFH Aaa /AAA/- 1,750 Mrd. 24.01.2028 ms +13 Bp 17.10.2022 2,200 Mrd. ms + 15 area 3,000% Deutsche Pfandbriefbank AG Aa1 /-/- 0,500 Mrd. 25.01.2027 ms +3 Bp 17.10.2022 0,675 Mrd. ms + 5 area 3,000% Societe Generale SFH Aaa /-/AAA 1,500 Mrd. 28.10.2025 ms +2 Bp 18.10.2022 4,000 Mrd. ms + 8 area 3,000% Berlin Hyp AG Aaa /-/- 0,750 Mrd. 25.10.2027 ms -2 Bp 18.10.2022 1,230 Mrd. ms + 2 area 3,250% Toronto-Dominion Bank Aaa /-/- 1,250 Mrd. 27.04.2026 ms +18 Bp 19.10.2022 1,500 Mrd. ms + 20 area 3,125% Hamburg Commercial Bank AG Aa1 /-/- 0,500 Mrd. 01.07.2026 ms +8 Bp 20.10.2022 0,680 Mrd. ms + 9 area t.b.d. Credit Mutuel Home Loan SFH Aaa /AAA/AAA 1,000 Mrd. 31.10.2029 ms +17 Bp 20.10.2022 1,250 Mrd. ms + 19 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Covered Bond issues week of 17 October 2022 "The bear market rally is currently in full swing. The stock markets rapidly gained height (e.g. the DAX almost 1,000 points in the meantime), the iTraxx indices narrowed brilliantly by almost 20 bp from the high and the Bund swap spreads ran tighter at extremely high levels. The positive mood of investors is currently not damp- ened by the central banks, even though they want to make big interest rate moves in the coming months. Next week, the ECB meeting is on the agenda and a 75 bp rate hike is expected.” Comment from the Helaba trading floor „The spread developments for longer maturities are extremely discouraging. The securities offered for sale by customers are not finding any real buyers, especially in the absence of central banks. This currently leaves the market makers as the only acceptors, who adjust their pricing accordingly. In plain language: the levels actu- ally traded deviate in part drastically downwards from the "homely" screen world. Certainly, the practically non-existent absolute yield advantage also plays a role (with a view to the structure of the yield curves for swaps)." Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 20 October 2022 4 of 7 Short news 10/18 The demand of euro area banks for liquidity from the European Central Bank (ECB) has changed little in the one-week main refinancing operation. According to the ECB, 3.640 billion euros were allotted at the fixed rate of 1.25 percent, compared with 3.622 billion the previous week. The bids of 26 insti- tutions (previous week: 19) were fully serviced. Euro area banks thus obtained 0.018 billion euros more ECB liquid- ity. (Dow Jones) 10/18 ECB/TLTRO: Some European Central Bank policymakers reckon it’s legally feasible to revise long-term lend- ing conditions for banks after the terms became more generous because of changes in the economy, according to officials familiar with the matter. The so-called TLTRO loans were first issued in 2014 to encourage banks to lend as Europe’s debt crisis weighed on growth and threatened to trigger a bout of deflation. They served a similar pur- pose after the pandemic struck. Since then, however, record consumer-price gains of 10% and interest rates rising rapidly after years below zero have undermined the case for those contracts, said the officials, who asked not to be identified as the debate is private. (Bloomberg) 10/17 EBA on supervisory practices: The European Banking Authority (EBA) published today the conclusion of its peer review of how competent authorities supervise institutions’ ICT risk management and have implemented the EBA Guidelines on ICT risk assessment under the supervisory review and evaluation process (SREP). Overall, the analysis suggests that the competent authorities across the EU have applied a risk-based approach to the su- pervision of ICT risk management. The EBA has not identified any significant concerns regarding the supervisory practices but makes some general recommendations for further improvements. 10/17 Moody’s – Household dept rises: Household borrowing during the pandemic moderated the effects of the economic downturn, but it has led to a large debt legacy. Despite a drop in the second quarter of this year, global Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 8,500% Banco Comercial Portugues, S.A. Baa3 /BB+/BB 0,350bn 25.10.2025 ms +550 bps 18.10.2022 0,850bn 9% area 5,750% Raiffeisen Bank International AG A2 /-/- 0,500bn 27.01.2028 ms +270 bps 19.10.2022 0,800bn ms + 280 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior preferred issues week of 17 October 2022 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 4,813% Morgan Stanley A1 /A-/A 1,000 Mrd. 25.10.2028 ms +175 Bp 18.10.2022 not disclosed ms + 195 area 5,148% Morgan Stanley A1 /A-/A 1,750 Mrd. 25.01.2034 ms +200 Bp 18.10.2022 not disclosed ms + 225 area t.b.d. Rabobank A3 /A-/A+ 1,000 Mrd. 27.01.2028 ms +155 Bp 20.10.2022 1,800 Mrd. ms + 175 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Non-preferred issues week of 17 October 2022 Issuer Date Issuer Date DNB BANK ASA 10/20 SKANDINAVISKA ENSKILDA BAN-A 10/26 NORDEA BANK ABP 10/20 DEUTSCHE BANK AG-REGISTERED 10/26 BANKINTER SA 10/20 BARCLAYS PLC 10/26 UBS GROUP AG-REG 10/25 BANCO SANTANDER SA 10/26 UNICREDIT BANK AG 10/25 STANDARD CHARTERED PLC 10/26 UBS GROUP AG-REG 10/25 SWEDBANK AB - A SHARES 10/27 HSBC HOLDINGS PLC 10/25 CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG-REG 10/27 UNICREDIT SPA 10/26 LLOYDS BANKING GROUP PLC 10/27 Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Reporting dates of selected banks Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 20 October 2022 5 of 7 household debt remained high at around $57 trillion, $8 trillion higher than in Q1 2020, according to the Institute of International Finance. 10/14 Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has upgraded the ratings of Deutsche Bank AG's (DB / the issuer) structured mortgage Pfandbriefe from Aa1 to Aaa. The rating action is prompted by the upgrade of the issuer's CR rating from A2(cr) to A1(cr). \* Closing prices from the previous day Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory, \* ASW-Spreads Market Data (current\*, vs. 1 week, vs. 4 weeks) E-STOXX 600 Banks 126 7,31% -4,10% iBoxx € Cov. Germany 2,1 0,7 -1,2 iTraxx Senior Financial 137,5 -10,8 3,6 10Yr-Yield 2,37 0,02 0,48 iBoxx € Cov. Bonds 11,3 1,0 -0,5 iBoxx € Supranational 6,5 5,72 4,39 Swap 10J 3,25 -0,06 0,56 iBoxx € Banks PS 99,6 11,0 17,9 iBoxx € Agencies -12,7 8,39 4,90 iBoxx € Germany -68,6 9,96 0,88 iBoxx Banks NPS 152,2 14,4 24,0 iBoxx € Sub-Sov. Germany -1,2 3,71 -0,12 iBoxx € EU 13,8 9,12 9,91 iBoxx Banks Subordinated 256,7 8,1 32,0 iBoxx € Sub-Sovereign 17,7 6,62 4,00 Leisure tip for the weekend: Current Exhibition at the Gasometer Oberhausen Do you have ideas for leisure tips? We would be happy to receive your suggestions at research@helaba.de. Source: The Fragile Paradise — Gasometer Oberhausen Gasometer Oberhausen- The current exhibition shows the beauty of nature and the influence of humans on their environment. Under the title "The Frag- ile Paradise", visitors are taken on a visually stunning journey through the turbulent climatic history of our Earth and can see impressive, award-winning photographs and videos of how the animal and plant world has changed in times of the Anthropocene. Thanks to the latest 3D technology, visitors to the exhibition can virtually explore the world's largest rainforest conservation area, taking on the role of various inhabitants of this primeval forest. The highlight of the exhibition is a monumental sculpture of the earth, onto which new, high-resolution satellite images are projected, which hangs freely in the 100m high space of the Gasometer. More information: The Fragile Paradise — Gasometer Oberhausen Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 20 October 2022 6 of 7 Chartbook SSA, Covered Bonds, Senior Unsecured Senior Primary volumes Senior Unsecured: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2021 SP 2020 SP 2022 SP 2020 SNP 2021 SNP 2022 SNP 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Okt.21 Dez.21 Feb.22 Apr.22 Jun.22 Aug.22 Okt.22 Banks Subordinated Banks Senior Bail-in Banks Senior Preferred Covered Primary volumes Covered Bonds: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2022 2020 2021 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Okt.21 Dez.21 Feb.22 Apr.22 Jun.22 Aug.22 Okt.22 EUR Covered Covered Germany SSA: Primary volumes SSA: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2020 2021 2022 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 Okt. 21 Dez. 21 Feb. 22 Apr. 22 Jun. 22 Aug. 22 Okt. 22 Sub-Sovereigns Agencies Supranationals Sub-Sovereigns Germany Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 20 October 2022 7 of 7 News from Research & Advisory  FOCUS ON: CREDITS - PRIMARY MARKET UPDATE EUR BENCHMARK BANK BONDS: Q3 2022  FOCUS ON: CREDITS - EUR CORPORATE BONDS: PRIMARY MARKET Q3 2022  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – BANK AND COVERED BOND PROFILES GERMANY  FOCUS ON: SSAS – GERMAN AGENCIES  FOCUS ON: COVERED BONDS – EUROPEAN COVERED BONDS: CENTRAL WEBSITE PROVIDES CLARITIY  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – LIVE DEALS – A USEFUL INDICATOR FOR PLANNING ISSUANCE  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – EUROPEAN BANKS: CLIMATE RISK STRESS TEST HIGHLIGHTS NEED FOR FURHTER ACTION  EUROPEAN BANKS: ACTIVITIES BECOMING EVER GREENER  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE: SPAIN VERSUS FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE – STATE OF PLAY: AUSTRIA VERSUS FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE – STATE OF PLAY IN FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  COVERED-BOND-LAWS: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU REGULATION (VIDEO) Team of authors Publisher and editorial office Helaba Research & Advisory Editor: Stefan Rausch Corporate Research & Advisory Responsible: Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chefvolkswirtin/ Head of Research & Advisory Neue Mainzer Str. 52-58 60311 Frankfurt am Main T +49 69 / 91 32 - 20 Internet: www.helaba.com Disclaimer This publication has been prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains only non-binding analyses and forecasts of current and future market conditions. The information is based on sources which we consider to be reliable, but for whose accuracy, completeness or up-to-dateness we cannot assume any liability. All state- ments made in this publication are for information purposes only. They must not be understood as an offer or recommendation for investment de- cisions. Here you can subscribe to our newsletter: https://news.helaba.de/research/ Dr. Susanne Knips Senior Credit Analyst T 069/91 32-32 11 Sabrina Miehs, CESGA Head of FI & SSA Research Senior Advisor Sustainable Finance T 069/91 32-48 90 Christian Schmidt Covered Bond & SSA Analyst T 069/91 32-23 88

SSA: Low-risk assets still in demand. Covered Bonds: Short maturities are popular with investors. Senior Unsecured: High spread concessions necessary.