---
title: "SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update"
url: https://www.helaba.com/en/ssa-and-financials-weekly-market-update-22
type: dd_research
language: en
updated: 2026-09-28
keywords: Renten, Weekly Market Update_englisch
---

# SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update

Focus on: SSA & Financials 24 November 2022 © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 24 November 2022 1 of 7 Research & Advisory Weekly Market Update Primary market environment: The approaching end of the year is increasingly casting its shadow on the primary market. Members of the ECB Governing Council disagree on the size of the next interest rate step. In the US, market participants expect a slower pace of interest rates for the December meeting after the Fed minutes. The picture of our risk trend indicator brightened further in the short term. However, the red colouring in the me- dium-term time frame cautions against excessive optimism. Primary market barometer In the SSA segment, it seems as if market participants are gradually getting ready for the end of the year. Transactions are few and far between and the few that do exist are difficult to place, especially if the maturity is too long from the market's point of view. Issuers are taking advantage of the opportunities on the primary market. On the one hand, not all funding plans have been implemented yet. On the other hand, they are trying to avoid the crowding on the primary market expected in January and pos- sibly higher spreads. The primary market remains surpris- ingly active. Even long maturities are attracting lively investor demand, al- beit at elevated risk premiums. Some of the institutions have pre-funded maturities due next year. We expect issuance activity to weaken in Decem- ber at the latest. Covered Bonds Senior Unsecured SSA Risk trend indicator: Relaxation trend continues Relative\* ASW spread change \* ASW levels standardized and 2T-smoothed Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory IBOXX EURO 1 day 1 week 4 week 13 weeks 52 weeks 104 weeks Germany -0,07 -0,16 0,54 1,37 -0,40 -1,54 European Union -0,06 0,00 0,14 0,99 1,66 1,74 Germany Covered -0,11 -0,05 0,34 -0,01 0,70 0,00 EU Covered -0,03 0,00 0,19 0,15 0,49 0,29 Banks senior preferred -0,03 -0,22 -0,60 0,73 2,31 2,04 Banks senior bail-in (SNP) -0,03 -0,16 -0,68 0,35 2,33 2,10 Banks subordinated -0,05 -0,17 -0,68 0,27 2,09 1,76 Supranational -0,06 0,04 0,37 0,69 1,24 0,84 Agencies -0,06 -0,05 0,52 0,89 0,12 -0,42 Sub-Sovereigns Germany -0,02 0,16 0,45 0,41 -0,70 -1,15 Sub-Sovereigns -0,06 0,03 0,31 0,72 0,24 -0,27 strong middle weak unchanged weak middle strong spread widening spread tightening Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 24 November 2022 2 of 7 SSA In the SSA segment, the impression gained last week that issuers have largely completed their fund- ing plans was confirmed. In addition, the federal states, for example, have higher than expected tax revenues, so that the current refinancing can be covered from own funds. The tap (EUR 250 m) of the Hesse 10/27 was priced at MS-18 and thus unchanged compared to the marketing spread. The new issue premium was 2 bps, the order book volume was not disclosed. Overall, interesting developments are emerging in the spreads from the SSA segment: In the case of sub-sover- eigns, they continue to run out, so that both the highs of last year and those from the summer of this year have been exceeded. The increase in the sub-sovereigns Germany is somewhat less dynamic; the previous year's value was not reached there. The trend for the agencies is also upwards. The spreads are in the range of the 12-month high. Outlook: Another EU auction is on the agenda for 28 November. Beyond that, no further transaction has been an- nounced so far. Looking ahead, we believe the trend towards duration avoidance will continue in the coming year. Covered Bonds Four issuers appeared on the primary market this week. With a 1.7 times oversubscribed order book, the Fédération des Caisses Desjardins du Québec attracted the greatest investor interest. Consequently, the final spread was set at MS+12, 3 bps below the marketing spread. The chosen maturity of 2 years - true to the motto "the shorter the better" - certainly contributed to the attractiveness. On the secondary market, market activity is becoming increasingly difficult due to declining liquidity. Market makers are hardly able to pass on positions via brokers, and central banks are known to be holding back on pur- chases, so that pricing is a major challenge. In addition, the market is sensitive to the activities of the primary mar- ket and the new issue premiums that can be obtained there. Good names with good premiums are doing well (HVB, 3Y MS+2, today MS-3 paid), other securities such as Bank- inter (5y, MS+40) are therefore struggling in the environment of similar secondary issues with only slightly more expensive levels. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 2,625% Thüringen - /-/AAA 0,250bn 29.11.2032 ms -9 bps 22.11.2022 ms - 9 area 2,750% Kommunalbanken Aaa /AAA/- 1,000bn 29.11.2027 ms +10 bps 22.11.2022 1,200bn ms + 11 area 3m€+0 Bp Berlin Aa1 /-/AAA 0,250bn 14.07.2028 not disclosed 23.11.2022 not disclosed not disclosed 2,625% Hessen - /AA+/- 0,500bn 10.09.2027 ms -19 bps 02.11.2022 0,840bn ms - 19 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € SSA issues week of 21 November 2022 „ Liquidity in the secondary market is becoming increasingly thin! In addition to seasonality, in the short term also before the coming end of the month, the continuing compression pressure on bund/swap spreads contin- ues to play a dominant role. Market participants are closely following the developments in the ECB Governing Council. It does not seem impossible that the ECB will focus on faster QT instead of large interest rate steps. This, coupled with verbal spikes on the "ECB Bills question" and rampant new debt in the Eurozone, is keeping the Bund/swap spreads under pressure, albeit with fluctuations. Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 24 November 2022 3 of 7 Outlook: Issuers will continue to take advantage of the issuance windows that present themselves, even if the time window remaining this year is getting smaller and smaller. Particularly for issuers from the second tier, short- term opportunities could be interesting, especially since in January, not least on the basis of a high number of ma- turities, a very lively issuing activity is to be expected. Pull-forward effects in anticipation of higher spreads could also play a role. Senior Unsecured The market for senior unsecured bank bonds continues to be surprisingly active. Since Monday, a volume of EUR 7.4 billion has been placed, around EUR 0.7 billion more than in the already strong previous week. The order books were again well filled with an average oversubscription rate of 2.3 times. Even bonds with long maturities met with lively investor interest. Overall, however, issuers have to accept higher risk premiums. As we expected, the institutions used the opportunity to repay their TLTRO III funds borrowed from the ECB on November 23, 2022 to a lesser extent than indicated by consensus estimates. According to the ECB notice of Nov. 18, 2022, the total repayment amount was only EUR 296.3 billion, compared with consensus estimates of an aver- age of around EUR 600 billion. In our view, this is mainly due to the fact that many banks want to maintain their liquidity ratios for the time being. At its meeting on October 27, 2022, the Governing Council decided to change the previously extremely attractive terms of the program; at the same time, participating institutions were given the opportunity to return the amounts they had borrowed for the first time on November 23, 2022, and thereafter on a monthly basis. We expect the institutions to repay around EUR 400 billion of the outstanding volume of around EUR 1.9 trillion at the next repayment date on Decem- ber 21, 2022 (to be announced on December 9, 2022) and a further EUR 800 billion in the months January to March. One argument in favor of early repayment of the funds before the end of the year is that the high volume due in June 2023 (around EUR 1 trillion still outstanding) will then no longer be eligible for the net stable funding ratio (NSFR). Furthermore, total assets at the end of the year will be the basis for calculating the bank levy. At least the June maturities will still be eligible for the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) at year- end 2022, which may seem attractive to some banks - especially from the periphery - notably as the interest on funds is still below money market rates. From March 2023, the LCR eligibility of TLTRO III amounts maturing in June 2023 will then also cease to apply. When the banks presented their Q3 results, the rapid increase in net interest income in the core business due to the rapidly changing interest rate environment came as a positive surprise (see our publication "European banks: Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 2,750% UniCredit Bank AG Aaa /-/- 0,750bn 27.02.2026 ms +2 bps 21.11.2022 1,050bn ms + 6 area 2,875% Fédération des Caisses Desjardins du Québec Aaa /-/AAA 0,750bn 28.11.2024 ms +12 bps 21.11.2022 1,250bn ms + 15 area 3,050% Bankinter S.A. Aa1 /AA+/- 0,750bn 29.05.2028 ms +40 bps 22.11.2022 0,900bn ms + 40 area 2,625% Nordea Mortgage Bank Plc Aaa /-/- 1,000bn 01.12.2025 ms +2 bps 24.11.2022 2,250bn ms + 6 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Covered Bond issues week of 21 November 2022 TLTRO III: Further repayments foreseeable TLTRO volumes outstanding, in trillion EUR \*projected Sources: ECB, Helaba Research & Advisory 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 22/03 22/06 22/09 22/11 22/12 (p)\* 23/03 (p)\* 23/06 (p)\* Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 24 November 2022 4 of 7 Q3 results inspire confidence" of November 15, 2022). This should more than compensate for the interest pre- mium provided by the ECB's TLTRO-III program, which now no longer will be applied. Outlook: Issuers are taking advantage of the recent somewhat more favorable spread development for pre fund- ing in order to be well prepared for potentially even more difficult times in the global crisis environment and to ensure compliance with their regulatory requirements (MREL/TLAC). We therefore expect the primary market for senior unsecured bonds to be quite active again next week provided a friendly market environment. However, the year is drawing to a close, and many banks have largely implemented their issuance plans, and in some cases even exceeded them. We therefore expect a slowdown in activity in December at the latest. Short news 11/23 Draft sustainability reporting standards: The European Commission welcomes the timely submission of draft sustainability reporting standards from EFRAG. Once adopted, companies sub- ject to the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) will use these reporting standards. 11/23 Green Bond Standard: According to Börsenzeitung, the EU Parliament wants to further extend the scope of application. A lack of harmonization between the requirements for future European green bonds and other green bonds, which are subject to less stringent regulation, would otherwise lead to an uneven playing field, ac- cording to the report. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3,375% Credit Agricole SA Aa3 /A+/AA- 1,000bn 28.07.2027 ms +75 bps 21.11.2022 1,400bn ms + 100 area 3,875% Credit Agricole SA Aa3 /A+/AA- 1,250bn 28.11.2034 ms +125 bps 21.11.2022 2,600bn ms + 150 area 4,625% Deutsche Bank AG A1 /A-/A- 0,750bn 29.11.2027 ms +135 bps 21.11.2022 3,000bn ms + 170 area 7,350% OTP Bank Nyrt. - /BBB/- 0,650bn 04.03.2026 ms +458 bps 23.11.2022 1,150bn 7.625% area 3,750% BFCM Aa3 /A+/AA- 1,500bn 01.02.2033 ms +120 bps 23.11.2022 2,700bn ms + 145 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Preferred issues week of 21 November 2022 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap M aturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 4,250% Crédit Mutuel Arkéa A3 /-/A- 0,500bn 01.12.2032 ms +165 bps  22.11.2022 2,000bn ms + 190-195 Bp 5,375% Argenta Spaarbank NV - /BBB/- 0,500bn 29.11.2027 ms +275 bps 22.11.2022 1,250bn ms + 300 area 5,262% Barclays PLC Baa2 /BBB/A 1,250bn 29.01.2034 ms +255 bps 22.11.2022 3,400bn ms + 275 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Non-preferred issues week of 21 November 2022 „The ongoing good sentiment also made itself felt in the secondary trading of the latest new issues, for exam- ple, the 5-year Deutsche Bank Pref issued on Monday is currently trading 12 bps tighter. Even new issues with longer maturities, such as the CMARK 12/32 (Green Non Pref) and the new Agricole 11/34 (Pref) were able to tighten 16 and 11 bps, respectively. Likewise, the new UCGIM 11/27 was able to tighten a further 12 bps and is now trading 49 bps tighter to the reoffer. In contrast, the new issues of ABN Amro (Green Non Pref 02/30 & NonPref 11/34) show a first sign of saturation.“ Einschätzungen aus dem Handelsraum der Helaba Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 24 November 2022 5 of 7 11/22 Consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem: The ECB has published the consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem as at 18 November 2022 11/22 Spain set to approve mortgage relief plan: Spain will act to reduce the impact of higher borrowing costs on mortgage holders by approving a package of relief measures, the Financial Times reports. After weeks of talks between the government and banks, the Spanish cabinet is due to authorize moves that include a reduction in in- terest rates during a five-year grace period. 11/21 List of 30 global systemically important banks updated: The Basel-based Financial Stability Board (FSB) published the list of global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) for 2022. Institutions on the list are subject to particularly stringent regulatory requirements for total liable capital (TLAC). 11/18 ECB on ESG and economic impact: A clearer understanding of the effects of climate change on the economy will help make better decisions. The latest European Central Bank Blog looks at a new climate scenario tool, which provides a comprehensive picture of potential economic impacts. 11/18 Santander management hits out at bank windfall taxes: Santander boss Ana Botín has hit out at windfall taxes on banks’ profits. “Higher taxes should be the same for all companies and governments need to figure out what is the right level of taxes that really allows sustainable growth and investment,” Botín said in an interview for the Financial Times Global Banking Summit. \* Closing prices from the previous day Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory, \* ASW-Spreads Market Data (current\*, vs. 1 week, vs. 4 weeks) E-STOXX 600 Banks 139 3,03% 8,74% iBoxx € Cov. Germany 3,3 -0,8 2,0 iTraxx Senior Financial 99,0 -6,8 -24,0 10Yr-Yield 1,92 -0,08 -0,20 iBoxx € Cov. Bonds 15,3 -0,3 4,3 iBoxx € Supranational 9,3 -0,06 3,77 Swap 10J 2,65 -0,04 -0,32 iBoxx € Banks PS 89,3 -4,9 -13,6 iBoxx € Agencies -6,1 -1,09 7,55 iBoxx € Germany -59,8 -2,39 8,81 iBoxx Banks NPS 133,9 -4,7 -19,7 iBoxx € Sub-Sov. Germany 6,2 1,79 6,76 iBoxx € EU 13,7 -0,39 1,49 iBoxx Banks Subordinated 213,8 -10,4 -34,7 iBoxx € Sub-Sovereign 21,3 -0,04 3,82 Leisure tip for the weekend: Historical Christmas Market at Wartburg Castle Do you have ideas for leisure tips? We would be happy to receive your suggestions at research@helaba.de. Source: https://www.wartburg.de/en/events/events-calendar.html Wartburg Castle - For many years now, the "Historical Christmas Market at Wartburg Castle" has been transporting its visitors into the world of historical trade and time-honored, almost forgotten crafts - candle makers, glass blow- ers, garment masters, lantern makers, soap boilers, stonemasons, herb women, pewterers and traveling merchants offer their wares for sale; musicians provide amusing entertainment and joy - and all this in the unique setting of the fa- mous Wartburg Castle in Eisenach, Thuringia, which has been a UNESCO World Heritage Site since 1999. At short, regular intervals, there is of course also the opportunity to take part in a public guided tour of the medieval main building. The south tower offers a fairytale view over the wintry landscape of the Thurin- gian Forest. More information: Events calendar - Wartburg Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 24 November 2022 6 of 7 Chartbook SSA, Covered Bonds, Senior Unsecured Senior Primary volumes Senior Unsecured: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2021 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Preferred 2021 Senior Non-preferred 2022 Senior Non-preferred 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Nov.21 Jan.22 Mrz.22 Mai.22 Jul.22 Sep.22 Nov.22 Banks Subordinated Banks Senior Bail-in Banks Senior Preferred Covered Primary volumes Covered Bonds: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2022 2020 2021 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Nov.21 Jan.22 Mrz.22 Mai.22 Jul.22 Sep.22 Nov.22 EUR Covered Covered Germany SSA: Primary volumes SSA: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2020 2021 2022 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 Nov. 21 Jan. 22 Mrz. 22 Mai. 22 Jul. 22 Sep. 22 Nov. 22 Sub-Sovereigns Agencies Supranationals Sub-Sovereigns Germany Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 24 November 2022 7 of 7 News from Research & Advisory  MARKETS AND TRENDS 2023 – GLOBAL ECONOMY ON A RIDGE WALK  Focus on Credits - European banks: Q3 results instil confidence  FOCUS ON CREDITS - BASEL III AND THE EU COUNCIL'S POSITION ON THE LEGISLATIVE PACKAGE  FOCUS ON: SUSTAINABLE FINANCE - THE RENDEZVOUS CLAUSE  FOCUS ON: CREDITS - PRIMARY MARKET UPDATE EUR BENCHMARK BANK BONDS: Q3 2022  FOCUS ON: CREDITS - EUR CORPORATE BONDS: PRIMARY MARKET Q3 2022  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – BANK AND COVERED BOND PROFILES GERMANY  FOCUS ON: SSAS – GERMAN AGENCIES  FOCUS ON: COVERED BONDS – EUROPEAN COVERED BONDS: CENTRAL WEBSITE PROVIDES CLARITIY  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – LIVE DEALS – A USEFUL INDICATOR FOR PLANNING ISSUANCE  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – EUROPEAN BANKS: CLIMATE RISK STRESS TEST HIGHLIGHTS NEED FOR FURHTER ACTION  EUROPEAN BANKS: ACTIVITIES BECOMING EVER GREENER  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE: SPAIN VERSUS FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE – STATE OF PLAY: AUSTRIA VERSUS FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE – STATE OF PLAY IN FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  COVERED-BOND-LAWS: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU REGULATION (VIDEO) Team of authors Publisher and editorial office Helaba Research & Advisory Editor: Sabrina Miehs Corporate Research & Advisory Responsible: Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chefvolkswirtin/ Head of Research & Advisory Neue Mainzer Str. 52-58 60311 Frankfurt am Main T +49 69 / 91 32 - 20 Internet: www.helaba.com Disclaimer This publication has been prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains only non-binding analyses and forecasts of current and future market conditions. The information is based on sources which we consider to be reliable, but for whose accuracy, completeness or up-to-dateness we cannot assume any liability. All state- ments made in this publication are for information purposes only. They must not be understood as an offer or recommendation for investment de- cisions. Here you can subscribe to our newsletter: https://news.helaba.de/research/ Dr. Susanne Knips Senior Credit Analyst T 069/91 32-32 11 Sabrina Miehs, CESGA Head of FI & SSA Research Senior Advisor Sustainable Finance T 069/91 32-48 90 Christian Schmidt Covered Bond & SSA Analyst T 069/91 32-23 88

Covered bonds: Issuers take advantage of opportunities in the primary market. SSA: Market participants are gradually getting into the mood for the end of the year. Senior unsecured: We estimate TLTRO repayment volume in December at around EUR 400 billion.