---
title: "SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update"
url: https://www.helaba.com/en/ssa-and-financials-weekly-market-update-19
type: dd_research
language: en
updated: 2026-09-28
keywords: Renten, Weekly Market Update_englisch
---

# SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update

Focus on: SSA & Financials 5 January 2023 © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 5 January 2023 1 of 7 Research & Advisory Weekly Market Update Primary market environment: The primary market is off to a flying start in the new year. The volume has already more than tripled compared to the whole of December. On the market as a whole, the decline in inflation and the significant drop in the price of gas are providing support. On the other hand, German export figures continued to be weak in November. The predominant red colouring of our risk trend indicator underlines the risk aversion that continues to prevail in the market. Primary market barometer Compared to other asset classes, pri- mary market activities in the SSA segment were still comparatively re- strained. Among other things, this was due to the relatively attractive coupons for senior unsecured bonds, for example. As was to be expected, issuers had a furious start to the new year. Already 13 new issues with maturities of 3-10 years were successfully placed. The flood of issues will continue in the coming weeks - not least because of high maturities. This segment also got off to an ex- tremely active start in the new year. Although investors remained sensi- tive, they took advantage of attractive yields and confident credit prospects. Non-preferred issues with medium maturities have dominated so far. Is- suers will continue to make active use of open market windows. Covered Bonds Senior Unsecured SSA Risk trend indicator: The colour red dominates Relative\* ASW spread change \* ASW levels standardized and 2T-smoothed Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory IBOXX EURO 1 day 1 week 4 week 13 weeks 52 weeks 104 weeks Germany -0,04 0,20 1,09 2,22 0,31 -0,84 European Union 0,05 0,20 0,22 1,42 2,53 2,42 Germany Covered -0,01 0,07 0,00 0,57 0,96 0,32 EU Covered 0,00 0,04 0,01 0,34 0,65 0,46 Banks senior preferred 0,17 0,49 0,44 -0,23 1,93 1,61 Banks senior bail-in (SNP) 0,15 0,37 0,30 -0,40 2,10 1,87 Banks subordinated 0,05 0,19 0,29 -1,04 1,83 1,54 Supranational 0,04 0,19 0,19 1,38 1,92 1,65 Agencies 0,01 0,17 0,52 1,83 0,70 0,16 Sub-Sovereigns Germany 0,04 0,16 -0,03 1,04 -0,28 -0,75 Sub-Sovereigns 0,06 0,26 0,14 1,30 0,78 0,25 strong middle weak unchanged weak middle strong spread widening spread tightening Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 5 January 2023 2 of 7 SSA In the SSA segment, the start into the new year was comparatively quiet. However, we assume that there will soon be an awakening of issuing activity in this asset class as well. For example, the EFSF is already in the starting blocks. RfPs (Request for Proposals) for a transaction, probably in the coming week, have already been sent to banks. Special attention was paid to the 10-year EUR Benchmark Landesschatzanweisung of the state of Lower Saxony, which was announced last year. The state already opened its books on Monday, while the US and the UK had not yet returned to the market due to the "substitute New Year's Day". The marketing started with an initial spread target of MS flat and generated an interim order book of EUR 1.8 bn (incl. EUR 250 m JLM) until the spread tightened to MS-2 bps. The arrangers had underestimated the spread sensitivity of the in- vestors when narrowing the spread; as a result, the final order book was halved to only EUR 900 million (incl. EUR 250 million JLM). Outlook: We expect the primary market to pick up significantly in the coming week. Possibly, one or the other fed- eral state will show up in the short maturity segment in addition to the EFSF. Covered Bonds The covered bond primary market started the new year with a veritable flood of issues. What is strik- ing is the pronounced price sensitivity of investors. The order books often show significant declines after the initial spreads have been tightened. For the maturities chosen so far, the average is around 6.6 years. Last year's motto "the shorter the maturity, the higher the order books" continues to apply. Longer maturities of 7 years and more are proving increasingly challenging. Depending on the name of the issuer, new issue premiums (NIPs) in the double-digit range have to be granted. By way of comparison, the NIP for the 3.3-year Social Covered issued by Berlin Hyp was 1 bps. Overall, it is apparent that investors are no longer willing to go along with every- thing. Name picking is taking place, but the spread levels are also decisive. Insurance companies were on the buy side in search of duration at longer maturities, for example in CRH. Outlook: We expect issuance to remain high in the coming weeks. Large maturities and the ECB, which will remain unchanged until the end of February, will contribute to this. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3,000% Niedersachsen - /-/AAA 0,750bn 10.01.2033 ms -2 bps 02.01.2023 0,900bn ms flat area 2,750% KFW Aaa /AAA/AAA 6,000bn 15.03.2028 ms -11 bps 04.01.2023 19,500bn ms - 9 area 3,000% BNG Aaa /AAA/AAA 1,500bn 11.01.2033 ms +11 bps 04.01.2023 2,100bn ms + 12 area 2,875% EIB Aaa /AAA/AAA 5,000bn 12.01.2033 ms +6 bps 05.01.2023 22,500bn ms + 8 area 0,000% Rentenbank Aaa /AAA/AAA 0,325bn  27.11.2029 ms -10 bps 05.01.2023 not disclosed ms - 10 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € SSA issues week of 2 January 2023 "The focus at the start of the year is exclusively on the primary markets. The flood of daily new issues offers very generous new issue premiums. The next few days/weeks will show how the secondary commodity inter- acts with the new bonds. It would not be surprising if the former converges to the new spread structure, even though some new paper shows selective narrowing trends (BHH 01/26 from original MS-4 to MS -8.5, Santan 01/26 from original MS+22 to MS+19/20). In addition, one will look more than usual at the price points of new government bonds/SSA's/LSA's.” Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 5 January 2023 3 of 7 Senior Unsecured With nine EUR benchmark transactions on January 3 and five more on January 4, the issuance year 2023 also got off to a flying start for senior unsecured bank bonds. After a short breather due to the holidays and the end of the year, the extremely lively primary market activity in this segment in Q4 2022 contin- ued as expected. With names such as BNP Paribas, Rabobank, BBVA and ABN AMRO, heavyweights opened the round as usual; ten of the aforementioned transactions had a volume of EUR 1 billion or more. A thoroughly friendly market environment with a confident credit rating outlook for banks - albeit with initially low turnover and cash spreads burdened by the new issues - paved the way for this. Issuers skilfully tried to push through longer maturities and the narrowest possible spreads, which they mostly succeeded in doing on the basis of their standing. Investors, on the other hand, continue to be extremely sensitive in the volatile market environment and only went along with this up to certain thresholds. This was demonstrated, for example, by ABN AMRO Bank's dual tranche, which achieved well above-average subscription rates with matur- ities of two and three years and a comparatively attractive spread premium. Nine of the 14 transactions in the first two days were non-preferred, confirming that much of the issuance activity remains regulatory driven. Overall, investors are snapping up the asset class at yields well above 4% in some cases. However, order books seem to be filling up a little more easily for preferred deals, which underlines the fact that investors are choosy. Outlook: The issuance needs of European banks in 2023 are again extremely high. The main reasons for this are high maturities and regulatory requirements for total liable capital (MREL/TLAC). We therefore expect an un- changed record volume of around EUR 180 billion of EUR benchmark bank bonds with fixed coupons to come to the market in 2023 as a whole. Issuers will therefore continue to make active use of open market windows and lose no time in doing so. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3,250% Erste Group Bank AG Aaa /-/- 1,000bn 10.01.2029 ms +20 bps 02.01.2023 1,400bn ms + 23 area 3,250% Arkéa Public Sector SCF Aaa /-/- 0,500bn 10.01.2031 ms +29 bps 02.01.2023 0,700bn ms + 30 area 3,000% Berlin Hyp AG Aaa /-/- 0,500bn 11.05.2026 ms -4 bps 03.01.2023 2,500bn ms flat area 3,000% Berlin Hyp AG Aaa /-/- 0,500bn 10.01.2033 ms +11 bps 03.01.2023 1,100bn ms + 13 area 3,250% RLB Niederösterreich-Wien AG Aaa /-/- 0,500bn 11.01.2030 ms +33 bps 03.01.2023 0,690bn ms + 35 area 3,375% Banco Santander, S.A. Aa1 /-/AA 2,500bn 11.01.2026 ms +22 bps 03.01.2023 4,600bn ms + 25 area 3,375% Banco Santander, S.A. Aa1 /-/AA 1,000bn 11.01.2030 ms +47 bps 03.01.2023 1,400bn ms + 48 area 3,000% Aareal Bank AG Aaa /-/- 0,750bn 11.10.2027 ms +14 bps 04.01.2023 1,080bn ms + 16 area 3,000% Caisse de Refinancement de l’Habitat Aaa /-/AAA 1,650bn 11.01.2030 ms +24 bps 04.01.2023 1,950bn ms + 26 area 3,125% BAWAG P.S.K. Aaa /-/- 0,800bn 12.01.2029 ms +25 bps 04.01.2023 1,050bn ms + 27 area 2,875% Bayerische Landesbank Aaa /-/- 0,500bn 12.01.2033 ms +10 bps 04.01.2023 0,780bn ms + 13 area 3,000% UniCredit Bank AG Aaa /-/- 1,000bn 13.07.2026 ms +3 bps 05.01.2022 2,538bn ms + 7 area 3,125% Credit Agricole Home Loan SFH Aaa /AAA/AAA 1,000bn 16.08.2030 ms +24 bps 05.01.2023 1,900bn ms + 27 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Covered Bond issues week of 2 January 2023 Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 5 January 2023 4 of 7 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3,875% BNP Paribas SA Aa3 /A+/AA- 1,250bn 10.01.2031 ms +92 bps 03.01.2023 2,000bn ms +110-115 bp 3m€ +35 Bp ABN AMRO Bank NV A /A1/A+ 1,250bn 10.01.2025 ms +35 bps 03.01.2023 2,690bn 3m€ 60-65 bp 3,625% ABN AMRO Bank NV A /A1/A+ 0,750bn 10.01.2026 ms +55 bps 03.01.2023 3,660bn ms + 80-85 bp 4,000% Danske Bank A/S A3 /A+/A+ 1,000bn 12.01.2027 ms +95 bps 03.01.2023 1,550bn ms + 115 area 4,125% Danske Bank A/S A3 /A+/A+ 1,000bn 12.01.2031 ms +125 bps  03.01.2023 1,700bn ms + 145 area 3m€+45 Bp Société Générale A1 /A/A 2,000bn 13.01.2025 ms +45 bps 05.01.2023 3,250bn Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Preferred issues week of 2 January 2023 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 4,375% BPCE SA Baa1 /BBB+/A+ 1,000bn 13.07.2028 ms +140 bps 03.01.2023 1,300bn ms + 155/160 bp 4,500% BPCE SA Baa1 /BBB+/A+ 1,250bn 13.01.2033 ms +155 bps 03.01.2023 1,450bn ms + 175 area 4,000% Rabobank A3 /A-/A+ 1,250bn 10.01.2030 ms +110 bps 03.01.2023 1,850bn ms + 130 area 4,625% BBVA Baa2 /BBB+/BBB+ 1,000bn 13.01.2031 ms +170 bps 03.01.2023 2,000bn ms + 190/195 bp 5,375% Deutsche Bank AG Baa1 /BBB-/BBB+ 0,500bn 11.01.2029 ms +250 bps 04.01.2023 0,850bn ms + 255 area 4,250% Swedbank AB Baa1 /A-/A+ 0,750bn 11.07.2028 ms +135 bps 04.01.2023 0,900bn ms + 150 area 4,375% UBS Group AG - /A-/A+ 1,000bn 11.01.2031 ms +155 bps 04.01.2023 1,800bn ms + 175 area 4,500% Lloyds Banking Group plc A3 /BBB+/A 0,750bn 11.11.2029 ms +160 bps 04.01.2023 1,150bn ms + 175 area 4,250% Credit Agricole SA A3 /A-/A+ 1,000bn 11.07.2029 ms +145 bps 04.01.2023 1,400bn ms + 165/170 bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Non-preferred issues week of 2 January 2023 „The sentiment for financials has been very positive since November 2022, and credit spreads have been tightening massively for weeks, so issuers are now finding a good environment at tight levels after the rally. In addition, some real money accounts still used the year-end tightening for profit-taking and therefore have high cash holdings, which they are now investing in the primary market. However, the new issues are strug- gling in the secondary market and for the most part are trading wider versus reoffer. We also see a lot of fast money selling, which puts further pressure on spreads. ETF funds are buyers in small pieces.” Comment from the Helaba trading floor Mortgage lending: new business plunges bn. EUR % Quellen: Helaba Research & Advisory 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 10 15 20 25 30 35 11/03 11/06 11/09 11/12 11/15 11/18 11/21 DE: Mortgages, new business volume (lhs) DE: Interest rate mortgages, new business (rhs) Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 5 January 2023 5 of 7 \* Closing prices from the previous day Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory, \* ASW-Spreads Market Data (current\*, vs. 1 week, vs. 4 weeks) E-STOXX 600 Banks 149 5,73% 8,82% iBoxx € Cov. Germany 5,2 0,6 -0,8 iTraxx Senior Financial 93,2 -7,9 -7,8 10Yr-Yield 2,3 -0,2 0,5 iBoxx € Cov. Bonds 17,7 0,9 -0,5 iBoxx € Supranational 15,2 2,23 1,50 Swap 10J 2,9 -0,3 0,3 iBoxx € Banks PS 82,8 12,6 12,2 iBoxx € Agencies 2,8 2,07 6,50 iBoxx € Germany -46,1 2,3 15,8 iBoxx Banks NPS 125,6 14,0 12,3 iBoxx € Sub-Sov. Germany 11,0 2,53 -1,03 iBoxx € EU 21,1 2,7 2,2 iBoxx Banks Subordinated 194,2 10,3 15,1 iBoxx € Sub-Sovereign 26,3 3,17 1,31 Leisure tip for the weekend: German Gliding Museum on the Wasserkuppe Do you have ideas for leisure tips? We would be happy to receive your suggestions at research@helaba.de. Source: https://travellersarchive.de Aviation enthusiasts should definitely visit the German Gliding Museum on the Wasserkuppe, the highest mountain in Hesse. Here you can experience 100 years of gliding history, immerse yourself in the development of gliding and discover the development phases of glid- ing with the help of numerous exhibits. Address: Wasserkuppe 2, 36129 Gersfeld (Rhön). Opening hours: Saturday & Sunday from 10:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. More information: Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 5 January 2023 6 of 7 Chartbook SSA, Covered Bonds, Senior Unsecured Senior Primary volumes Senior Unsecured: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2021 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Preferred 2021 Senior Non-preferred 2022 Senior Non-preferred 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Jan.22 Mrz.22 Mai.22 Jul.22 Sep.22 Nov.22 Jan.23 Banks Subordinated Banks Senior Bail-in Banks Senior Preferred Covered Primary volumes Covered Bonds: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2022 2020 2021 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Jan.22 Mrz.22 Mai.22 Jul.22 Sep.22 Nov.22 Jan.23 EUR Covered Covered Germany SSA: Primary volumes SSA: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2020 2021 2022 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 Jan. 22 Mrz. 22 Mai. 22 Jul. 22 Sep. 22 Nov. 22 Jan. 23 Sub-Sovereigns Agencies Supranationals Sub-Sovereigns Germany Focus on: SSA & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 5 January 2023 7 of 7 News from Research & Advisory  Focus on: Singaporean Covered Bonds - Top credit quality made in Asia  Credits: Corporate Schuldschein: Primary market 2022  Markets and Trends 2023  FOCUS ON CREDITS - BASEL III AND THE EU COUNCIL'S POSITION ON THE LEGISLATIVE PACKAGE  FOCUS ON: SUSTAINABLE FINANCE - THE RENDEZVOUS CLAUSE  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – BANK AND COVERED BOND PROFILES GERMANY  FOCUS ON: SSAS – GERMAN AGENCIES  FOCUS ON: COVERED BONDS – EUROPEAN COVERED BONDS: CENTRAL WEBSITE PROVIDES CLARITIY  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – LIVE DEALS – A USEFUL INDICATOR FOR PLANNING ISSUANCE  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – EUROPEAN BANKS: CLIMATE RISK STRESS TEST HIGHLIGHTS NEED FOR FURHTER ACTION  EUROPEAN BANKS: ACTIVITIES BECOMING EVER GREENER  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE: SPAIN VERSUS FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE – STATE OF PLAY: AUSTRIA VERSUS FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU COVERED BOND DIRECTIVE – STATE OF PLAY IN FRANCE AND GERMANY (VIDEO)  COVERED-BOND-LAWS: IMPLEMENTATION OF THE EU REGULATION (VIDEO) Team of authors Publisher and editorial office Helaba Research & Advisory Editor: Stefan Rausch Corporate Research & Advisory Responsible: Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chefvolkswirtin/ Head of Research & Advisory Neue Mainzer Str. 52-58 60311 Frankfurt am Main T +49 69 / 91 32 - 20 Internet: www.helaba.com Disclaimer This publication has been prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains only non-binding analyses and forecasts of current and future market conditions. The information is based on sources which we consider to be reliable, but for whose accuracy, completeness or up-to-dateness we cannot assume any liability. All state- ments made in this publication are for information purposes only. They must not be understood as an offer or recommendation for investment de- cisions. Here you can subscribe to our newsletter: https://news.helaba.de/research/ Dr. Susanne Knips Senior Credit Analyst T 069/91 32-32 11 Sabrina Miehs, CESGA Head of FI & SSA Research Senior Advisor Sustainable Finance T 069/91 32-48 90 Christian Schmidt Covered Bond & SSA Analyst T 069/91 32-23 88

Covered bonds: Furious start into the new year. SSA: Primary market activity still subdued. Senior unsecured: Non-preferred issues with medium maturities dominate.