---
title: "SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update"
url: https://www.helaba.com/en/ssa-and-financials-weekly-market-update-11
type: dd_research
language: en
updated: 2026-09-28
keywords: Renten, Weekly Market Update_englisch
---

# SSA and Financials: Weekly Market Update

Focus on: SSAs & Financials 2 March 2023 © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 2 March 2023 1 of 7 Research & Advisory Weekly Market Update Primary market environment: Primary markets continue to be receptive, although the market environment is somewhat more challenging. New orders for durable goods in the US fell more than expected in January. Rising inflation in France and Spain fuelled fears of further ECB rate hikes. Bund yields continue to climb. Already in the previous week, our risk trend indicator showed that short-term risks were weighted somewhat higher by investors. The latest development follows on seamlessly from this. Primary market barometer The momentum in the SSA segment continued this week. The state of NRW stood out among the issues with an ultra-long, 50-year maturity. The triple oversubscription of the book showed that there is a market for this maturity segment again. The relatively low issuance activity this week is likely to have been an ex- ception. The picture remains con- structive and valuations of covereds are cheap compared to other asset classes. The market environment has deterio- rated noticeably in recent weeks. This can be seen, among other things, in the recent rise in new issue premiums. Covered Bonds Senior Unsecured SSAs Risk trend indicator: Risk aversion turns out to be slightly higher Relative\* ASW spread change \* ASW levels standardized and 2T-smoothed Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory IBOXX EURO 1 day 1 week 4 week 13 weeks 52 weeks 104 weeks Germany 0,11 -0,11 0,08 1,08 1,83 -0,79 European Union 0,04 -0,14 -0,03 0,49 2,74 2,55 Germany Covered 0,08 -0,17 0,01 0,09 0,77 0,91 EU Covered 0,03 -0,06 -0,02 0,05 0,65 0,73 Banks senior preferred 0,10 -0,03 -0,09 -0,16 0,52 1,14 Banks senior bail-in (SNP) 0,07 0,00 0,10 -0,32 0,60 1,29 Banks subordinated 0,04 -0,01 0,20 -0,07 0,31 1,29 Supranational 0,04 -0,14 -0,05 0,45 2,15 2,03 Agencies 0,10 -0,15 -0,18 0,30 1,11 -0,01 Sub-Sovereigns Germany 0,03 -0,14 -0,23 -0,22 -0,47 -0,53 Sub-Sovereigns 0,06 -0,17 -0,16 0,04 0,58 0,51 strong middle weak unchanged weak middle strong spread widening spread tightening Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 2 March 2023 2 of 7 SSAs In February, the SSA segment again dominated the primary market for the second month in a row. Of the bonds issued in the past month, around 87% succeeded in narrowing spreads compared to the issue. NIPs averaged 3.1 vs. 3.7 bps in January. Since Monday 7 bonds have been placed. The EU kicked off with two increases. As usual, these went through without a hitch. The state of NRW stood out with its benchmark due to an ultra-long maturity of 50 years. The bond with a volume of EUR 2 billion was 3 times oversubscribed and was finally priced at mid-swap rate (MS)+104 bps. Obviously, there is a market for such a duration again. The book for the 7-year benchmark of Rentenbank was also very well filled with EUR 4.4 billion, so that the final spread could be fixed at MS-3 by 2 bps below the default. The autonomous region of Galicia successfully placed a 6-year Sustaina- ble Bond (EUR 500m, WNG) at SPGB +27. The book was 2.8 times oversubscribed. Outlook: Issuance activity is expected to continue unabated in the coming week. The EU has already sent out RfPs (Request for Proposal). Other projects are also likely to be in the pipeline, especially as maturities in March are higher than in previous months. Covered Bonds Primary market activity in the covered bond segment was relatively modest this week. This could be due to pull-forward effects in connection with the ECB's withdrawal from the primary market. In fact, the central bank participated in primary market transactions for the last time within the framework of CBPP3. This marked the end of the purchase programme, which had been in place since October 2014 and involved purchases of around EUR 160 billion. However, maturities will continue to be replaced via the secondary market. Overall, it seems that the central bank's change in strategy was well absorbed by the market. Berlin Hyp kicked off the pri- mary market this week with a 5-year benchmark. HSBC Canada also opted for a 5-year maturity. The EUR 1 billion benchmark bond was successfully placed, not least because it was 1.7 times oversubscribed. For both securities, spreads tightened both at issuance and in secondary market trading. Outlook: The recent somewhat lower activity is likely to be an exception, as maturities of EUR 14.3 billion and EUR 14.5 billion are to be replaced in the current and the coming month, respectively. In addition, it is to be expected that more issuers from Canada will appear on the primary market, after HSBC Canada made a start this week. The secondary picture also remains constructive, the central banks of the Eurosystem have already been relatively ac- Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 0,800% EU Aaa /AA+/AAA 1,770bn  04.07.2025 Auction 27.02.2023 2,880bn Auction 0,000% EU Aaa /AA+/AAA 1,800bn  04.10.2028 Auction 27.02.2023 3,830bn Auction 3,250% Landwirtschaftliche Rentenbank Aaa /AAA/AAA 1,500bn 06.09.2030 ms -3 bps 28.02.2023 4,600bn ms - 1 area 3,400% NRW Aa1 /AA/AAA 2,000bn 07.03.2073 ms +104 bps 28.02.2023 6,000bn ms + 106 area 4,500% Corporation Andina de Fomento Aa3 /AA-/AA- 1,000bn 07.03.2028 ms +110 bps 28.02.2023 2,300bn ms + 115 area 3,711% Galicia Baa1 /A/- 0,500bn 30.07.2029 SPGB +25 bp  28.02.2023 1,500bn SPGB +30 area 3,250% Investitionsbank Schleswig-Holstein - /-/AAA 0,500bn 10.03.2031 ms +2 bps 01.03.2023 1,350bn ms + 4 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € SSAs issues week of 27 Febuary 2023 "The continued upward path in absolute yields is creating good demand in the kitty. This is especially true for short maturities. Swap spreads remain well to very well supported and, despite high spread discounts, are rather an expression of the absolute yield advantage over their counterparts at the long end. An end to this regime, and thus a gamechanger, does not seem to be in sight at the moment." Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 2 March 2023 3 of 7 tive on the buy side and will continue to do so in line with their announced strategy. Compared to other asset clas- ses, the valuations of covereds are attractive. The approach of 2-year maturities to the 4% mark is also attracting further buyers. Chart of the week According to a forecast by the Swedish central bank Riksbank, higher mortgage rates that weigh on dispos- able income could, in the best-case scenario, cause house prices to fall by 18 % by 2024. However, a sharper decline of 20% or more is increasingly likely, after a decline of almost 17% in just nine months. Ini- tially, however, only property purchases within the last two years are affected by a decline in value. During this period, prices climbed by around 20 %. The average LTV on new mortgages in Sweden is around 67 % com- pared to 57 % on existing loans. Only a very small pro- portion of new borrowers have LTV ratios above 80%, which mitigates credit risks for banks for the time be- ing. A decline in property prices usually leads to an ad- justment of the collateral valuation and thus to rising loan-to-value ratios. valuation and thus to rising loan-to-value ratios in the cover pools. As a result, higher over- collateralisation ratios may become necessary. Based on eight selected Swedish covereds, the average overcollat- eralisation is currently around 66%, so that readjustments may only be necessary in individual cases. Despite the growing challenges, rating agencies such as Scope give a stable outlook for the credit stability of Swedish banks for the current year. The agency does not expect any negative effects on the recovery rates of covered bonds un- der stress conditions due to lower house prices. Senior Unsecured Last week, the iTraxx Europe Senior Financial Index widened in the face of existing interest rate fears. This week, interest rate worries were temporarily dampened in the wake of the decline in the money supply and the resulting inflationary potential. However, the central bank remains under pressure, especially as inflation continues to rise in major euro countries. The expectation that the ECB will raise interest rates by 50 bps next month remained unchanged. There was no change in this expectation. In the senior unsecured segment, issu- ing activity picked up somewhat compared to the previous week. Landesbank Berlin made a successful start to the week in a challenging market environment with a 3-year senior non-preferred debut issue as a sub-benchmark (EUR 250 million, WNG). The final spread was set at MS+95, 5 bps below the initial target. De Volksbank placed a 7- year SNP Green Bond. Intesa Sanpao-lo met good demand with a green SNP dual tranche. The spread narrowed by 20 bps on the 5NC4 (EUR 1.5bn) compared to marketing and by 15 bps on the 10-year (EUR 750m). Credit Agricole issued an SP benchmark dual tranche on Wednesday. The bonds had maturities of 2 and 7 years, respectively. The current market uncertainty can be seen from the fact that shorter maturities are significantly more in demand from investors, which is also evidenced by the two issues mentioned. In the cash segment, spreads have widened again recently. In the pref segment, the widening was more moderate and averaged 3 bps. The periphery is an underperformer with up to 7 bps, while Skandis again lived up to their Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3,375% Berlin Hyp AG Aaa /-/- 0,750bn 07.03.2028 ms +1 bps 28.02.2023 1,100bn ms + 4 area 3,625% HSBC Bank Canada Aaa /-/AAA 1,000bn 07.03.2028 ms +32 bps 28.02.2023 2,100bn ms + 35 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Covered Bond issues week of 27 Febuary 2023 Swedish house price index\* in reverse Index points / 2005 = 100 \* Nasdaq OMX Valueguard-KTH Housing Index HOX® Sources: Trading Economics / Valueguard, Helaba Research & Advisory 299 303 302 297 286 278277 269 261257 254 250 260 270 280 290 300 310 Jan 22 Feb 22 Mrz 22 Apr 22 Mai 22 Jun 22 Jul 22 Aug 22 Sep 22 Okt 22 Nov 22 Dez 22 Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 2 March 2023 4 of 7 safe haven status with unchanged spread levels. For non-prefs, the widening is much more pronounced with an average of 7 bps. The risk premiums of peripheral bonds increased by 8-12 bps, but this was partly due to repric- ing as a result of new issues. Outlook: The credit curves steepened again recently, the decompression between prefs and non-prefs is still in- tact and should remain so due to the nervous market environment. In view of the consolidating markets, things have been a little quieter on the primary side recently, but now it seems as if momentum is picking up again. Gen- erally slightly rising new issue premiums offer the chance of a tightening of bond spreads. Short news 2/28 EU Green Bond Standard: EU negotiators reached an agreement on Tuesday that creates the first first-class standard for green bond issuance. The European Green Bonds Standard (EUGBS), which companies can optionally choose when placing a bond, will primarily allow investors to target their invest- ments towards more sustainable technologies and companies with greater certainty. It also gives the company issuing the bond more certainty that its bond is suitable for investors seeking green bonds in their portfolio. The standard is in line with the more horizontal taxonomy legislation that defines which economic activities can be considered environmentally sustainable. The agreement was reached by European Parliament negotiators led by rapporteur Paul Tang (S&D, NL) and the Swedish EU Presidency. It will make clear to bond issuers what economic activities can be carried out with the bond proceeds, establish a clear reporting procedure on the use of proceeds from bond sales and standardise the verification work of external auditors, which will improve confidence in the verification process. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3m€+32 Bp Credit Agricole SA Aa3 /A+/AA- 1,750bn 07.03.2025 ms +32 bps 28.02.2023 3,300bn 3m€ 55/60 bp 4,125% Credit Agricole SA Aa3 /A+/AA- 1,000bn 07.03.2030 ms +90 bps 28.02.2023 1,900bn ms + 110/115 bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Preferred issues week of 27 Febuary 2023 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 4,500% Landesbank Berlin A3 /-/- 0,250bn 06.03.2026 ms +95 bps 27.02.2023 0,275bn ms + 100 area 5,000% Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. Baa3 /BBB-/BBB- 1,500bn 08.03.2028 ms +170 bps  27.02.2023 3,000bn ms + 190 area 5,625% Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. Baa3 /BBB-/BBB- 0,750bn 08.03.2033 ms +255 bps  27.02.2023 2,000bn ms + 270 area 4,875% de Volksbank N.V. Baa2 /-/A- 0,500bn 07.03.2030 ms +160 bps  28.02.2023 0,850bn ms + 170 area 4,656% Morgan Stanley A1 /A-/A 2,000bn 02.03.2029 ms +125 bps 28.02.2023 3,900bn ms + 150 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Non-preferred issues week of 27 Febuary 2023 „Interest rate volatility is increasing massively again and consolidation is taking hold on the stock markets and in the credit cash area. There was no sell-off, as FOMO (fear of missing out) still seems to apply. The iTraxx indices are trading tighter in a weekly comparison, decoupled from the cash. However, nervousness is gradually increasing here. The central bank meetings in a fortnight with further interest rate steps are al- ready casting their shadows.” Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 2 March 2023 5 of 7 2/28 Bloomberg: Foreigners flee Danish Mortgage Bonds as Housing Cools. Foreign investors are reducing their holdings in Denmark’s mortgage bonds at an accelerating pace, leading to higher refinancing costs for home owners who’re already facing declining house prices. Over the past 12 months, foreigners have sold a net 118 bil- lion kroner ($17 billion) in fixed-rate convertible mortgage bonds and now hold 376 billion kroner, according to data published on Tuesday by the Danish central bank. Their share of ownership fell to 31% in January, the lowest in four-and-a-half years. 2/28 Moody’s: RMBS and Covered Bonds Australia – Mortgage Secktor is better placed in current housing downturn than previous slump. The Australian mortgage sector is in a stronger position in the current housing market downturn than it was during the 2008 financial crisis, because risky lending has declined, macroprudential policies have improved underwriting standards, and lenders have a greater propensity to support homeowners than in the past. These factors will continue to support mortgage performance as interest rates increase, house prices decline and the economy weakens in the coming months. Nonetheless, some borrowers are more vulnera- ble than others and we expect mortgage delinquencies to rise from current low levels. 2/27 Barkow: Volume of German mortgage loans declines. The volume of outstanding German mortgage loans fell in January for the first time since 2016, according to Barkow Consulting. "It is down by EUR 1.6 billion month- on-month, which is also the largest decline since 2014," the consultancy said in a statement. 2/27 Moody’s: Finland’s 30-year maximum loan term for mortgages is credit positive for covered bonds: On 16 February, Finland's Ministry of Finance capped the maturity of new housing loans at 30 years and restricted inter- est-only periods for loans to housing companies. Both regulations are credit positive for covered bonds because they lessen the risk of mortgage borrowers becoming too indebted and reduce asset-liability mismatches in cov- ered bond programmes. \* Closing prices from the previous day Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory, \* ASW-Spreads Market Data (current\*, vs. 1 week, vs. 4 weeks) E-STOXX 600 Banks 167 1,74% 3,52% iBoxx € Cov. Germany 6,9 -0,3 0,3 iTraxx Senior Financial 90,0 5,2 0,4 10Yr-Yield 2,7 0,2 0,4 iBoxx € Cov. Bonds 19,6 -0,3 -0,1 iBoxx € Supranational 18,5 -0,66 -0,58 Swap 10J 3,3 0,2 0,4 iBoxx € Banks PS 68,8 0,7 -1,6 iBoxx € Agencies 1,1 -0,25 -1,31 iBoxx € Germany -44,1 0,7 1,9 iBoxx Banks NPS 104,7 0,0 3,9 iBoxx € Sub-Sov. Germany 9,1 -1,06 -2,91 iBoxx € EU 24,7 -0,7 -0,8 iBoxx Banks Subordinated 176,7 -0,7 9,8 iBoxx € Sub-Sovereign 26,0 -0,94 -1,33 Leisure tip for the weekend: Oranienburg Palace Museum Do you have ideas for leisure tips? We would be happy to receive your suggestions at research@helaba.de. Source: https://www.spsg.de/en/palaces-gardens/object/oranienburg-palace-museum/ Oranienburg Palace is one of the most significant Baroque buildings in the Mark Brandenburg, and a symbol of the Electorate of Brandenburg’s regal ascent. After a varied history of use, the Oranienburg Palace Museum today pre- sents a collection of masterly works of art, including the magnificent éta- gères in the porcelain chamber. Outstanding are a group of ivory seating furniture, a series of tapestries from Pierre Mercier's manufactory in Berlin depicting the glorious deeds of the Great Elector, and sculptural works by the sculptor Bartholomeus Eggers. Further information: Oranienburg Palace Museum Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 2 March 2023 6 of 7 Chartbook SSAs, Covered Bonds, Senior Unsecured Senior Primary volumes Senior Unsecured: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 Senior Non-preferred 2023 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Non-preferred 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Mrz.22 Mai.22 Jul.22 Sep.22 Nov.22 Jan.23 Mrz.23 Banks Subordinated Banks Senior Bail-in Banks Senior Preferred Covered Primary volumes Covered Bonds: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 2022 2021 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Mrz.22 Mai.22 Jul.22 Sep.22 Nov.22 Jan.23 Mrz.23 EUR Covered Covered Germany SSAs: Primary volumes SSAs: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2022 2021 2023 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 Mrz. 22 Mai. 22 Jul. 22 Sep. 22 Nov. 22 Jan. 23 Mrz. 23 Sub-Sovereigns Agencies Supranationals Sub-Sovereigns Germany Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 2 March 2023 7 of 7 News from Research & Advisory  Focus on Credits: Social and sustainability bonds: ICMA Principles - the freestyle element makes all the difference  European banks: An optimistic outlook for 2023  Focus on: Corporate Schuldschein: Burgeoning diversity creates new options for investors  Focus on: Primary Market update EUR Benchmark Bank Bonds Q4 2022  Focus on: Singaporean Covered Bonds - Top credit quality made in Asia  Credits: Corporate Schuldschein: Primary market 2022  Markets and Trends 2023  FOCUS ON CREDITS - BASEL III AND THE EU COUNCIL'S POSITION ON THE LEGISLATIVE PACKAGE  FOCUS ON: SUSTAINABLE FINANCE - THE RENDEZVOUS CLAUSE  FOCUS ON: CREDITS – BANK AND COVERED BOND PROFILES GERMANY  FOCUS ON: SSAS – GERMAN AGENCIES  FOCUS ON: COVERED BONDS – EUROPEAN COVERED BONDS: CENTRAL WEBSITE PROVIDES CLARITIY Team of authors Publisher and editorial office Helaba Research & Advisory Editor: Sabrina Miehs Corporate Research & Advisory Responsible: Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chefvolkswirtin/ Head of Research & Advisory Neue Mainzer Str. 52-58 60311 Frankfurt am Main T +49 69 / 91 32 – 20 24 Internet: www.helaba.com Disclaimer This publication has been prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains only non-binding analyses and forecasts of current and future market conditions. The information is based on sources which we consider to be reliable, but for whose accuracy, completeness or up-to-dateness we cannot assume any liability. All state- ments made in this publication are for information purposes only. They must not be understood as an offer or recommendation for investment de- cisions. Here you can subscribe to our newsletter: https://news.helaba.de/research/ Dr. Susanne Knips Senior Credit Analyst T 069/91 32-32 11 Sabrina Miehs, CESGA Head of FI & SSA Research Senior Advisor Sustainable Finance T 069/91 32-48 90 Christian Schmidt Covered Bond & SSA Analyst T 069/91 32-23 88

SSAs: Ultra-long issue by the State of NRW stands out. Covered Bonds: Low issuance activity probably an exception. Senior Unsecured: Market environment noticeably gloomier. Chart of the Week: Swedish house price index falls.