---
title: "SSAs and Financials: Weekly Market Update"
url: https://www.helaba.com/en/ssas-and-financials-weekly-market-update-32
type: dd_research
language: en
updated: 2026-09-28
keywords: Renten, Weekly Market Update_englisch
---

# SSAs and Financials: Weekly Market Update

Focus on: SSAs & Financials 26 October 2023 © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 26 October 2023 1 of 8 Research & Advisory Weekly Market Update Primary market environment: The Middle East conflict is weighing on sentiment and risk aver- sion in the primary markets continues. According to ECB chief Lagarde, the ECB is closely moni- toring the impact of the Middle East crisis on the economy. As expected, today's ECB meeting did not result in a change in interest rates. The market environment is still characterised by uncertainty. As a result, investors are likely to be selective in their approach to the market. Apart from a slight brightening in the very short term, the warning signals on our heat map clearly outweigh the downside. Primary market barometer The primary markets were largely driven by the SSA segment this week. The NRW issue stood out with a 3.7x oversubscription. Longer-dated is- sues continue to struggle to cross the finish line. The environment is marked by uncer- tainty. Nevertheless, Helaba and SpareBank 1 Boligkreditt were able to successfully execute primary market transactions this week. This shows that the absorptive capacity of the market is still there. As expected, activity in the primary market for senior unsecured bank bonds is low this week. However, as the quarterly reporting season draws to a close, issuers may gradually be- come more active in the coming weeks. The market environment is generally receptive. Covered Bonds Senior Unsecured SSAs Risk trend indicator (heat map): Risk aversion continues Relative\* ASW spread change \* ASW levels standardized and 2T-smoothed Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory IBOXX EURO 1 day 1 week 4 week 13 weeks 52 weeks 104 weeks Germany 0,03 -0,01 -0,03 0,30 1,84 0,23 European Union 0,02 0,03 0,30 0,69 1,29 2,56 Germany Covered -0,02 0,07 0,44 1,05 2,14 2,36 EU Covered -0,01 0,05 0,28 0,62 1,60 2,18 Banks senior preferred -0,03 0,07 0,49 0,68 -0,56 2,45 Banks senior bail-in (SNP) -0,05 0,00 0,36 0,64 -1,13 2,07 Banks subordinated -0,06 0,06 0,31 0,61 -0,95 2,62 Supranational -0,01 0,01 0,36 0,61 1,59 2,35 Agencies 0,00 0,00 0,19 0,69 2,14 1,31 Sub-Sovereigns Germany -0,03 0,02 0,15 0,24 0,91 -0,35 Sub-Sovereigns -0,01 0,04 0,37 0,57 1,10 0,92 strong middle weak unchanged weak middle strong spread widening\* spread tightening\* Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 26 October 2023 2 of 8 SSAs Bpifrance started this week on the primary market in the SSA segment on Monday. A EUR 1.25bn 4- year social bond was well received. With the order book 2.3 times oversubscribed, the final spread was set at OAT+39 bps, 2 bps tighter than guidance. On Tuesday, the State of NRW (EUR 1bn, 5 years, WNG) and Ville de Paris (EUR 295m, 14 years) vied for investors' favour. NRW's first issue in six months attracted an order book of EUR 3.7bn, with the spread tightening by 2bp to MS flat versus the market. A whopping 95 investors placed buy orders, with 46% in bank treasuries and 28% in asset managers. Ville de Paris, on the other hand, had a more difficult time, although demand of EUR 450m was well above the original target of EUR 250m. The spread was unchanged at OAT+ 40 bps, as forecast. The relatively long maturity of 14 years may have played a role. The EU raised more than EUR 4bn through auctions. IDA concluded this week's primary market activity. Outlook: There is likely to be a need for primary transactions from the states in the near future. Covered Bonds The covered primary market remained quiet on Monday. Metaphorically speaking, it is also getting quieter in terms of issuance volume this year: So far this year, transaction volumes in the European primary covered bond market have fallen below the comparable figure for 2022 for the first time. After an unprece- dented first half of the year, in which issuers did all they could to take advantage of comparatively favourable con- ditions and the ECB as a buyer, the tide turned in the second half. In the absence of central bank support, signifi- cantly wider spreads and exhausted investor capacity, the slowdown in the prime market is not surprising. On Tuesday, Helaba successfully issued a public Pfandbrief with a maturity of 3.8 years and a volume of EUR 750 million. The final spread tightened by 3 bps to MS+ 15 bps and corresponded to a new issue premium of 5 bps. This brings the total volume of Public Pfandbriefe for the month to EUR 2.45 bn, with 16 issues in this format total- ling EUR 9.2 bn so far this year. On the same day, Spare Bank 1 Boligkreditt followed with a 4.75 year covered. The final spread was tightened by 4bp to MS+36bp on 1.6x oversubscription. The issuer, we are told, would have liked to place a longer tenor, but in the end a "safe route" was chosen to meet investor demand. According to our trading, there is not enough demand in the secondary market to reverse the current trend in the long term. In the aftermath of the primary deals that were hailed as "icebreakers", the supposed mood of opti- mism is fading in the face of the poor subsequent performance of almost all bonds. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3,500% Bpifrance Financement Aa2 /-/AA- 1,250 Mrd. 27.09.2027 FRTRs +39 bp  23.10.2023 2,900 Mrd. FRTRs + 41 area 3,125% EU Aaa /AAA/AAA 2,203 Mrd.  04.12.2030 Auction 23.10.2023 2,696 Mrd. Auction 3,375% EU Aaa /AAA/AAA 2,257 Mrd. 04.10.2038 Auction 23.10.2023 2,468 Mrd. Auction 4,000% Ville de Paris - /AA/AA- 0,295 Mrd. 02.11.2037 FRTRs + 40 bp 24.10.2023 0,450 Mrd. FRTRs + 40 area 3,375% NRW Aa1 /AA/AAA 1,000 Mrd. 31.10.2028 ms +0 Bp 24.10.2023 3,700 Mrd. ms + 2 area 3,800% International Development Association Aaa /AAA/- 0,550 Mrd. 3/11/2053 ms +74 Bp 24.10.2023 not disclosed ms + 74 bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € SSAs issues week of 23 October 2023 "Quo vadis spreads? This is the question that continues to drive all players, primary and secondary. It can be said that the trend towards wider spreads is still intact. At the same time, the interactions between primary transactions and the day-to-day business of the secondary markets are mutually reinforcing. There is more coming out of the secondary than going to clients on the other side. This keeps spreads under pressure. This in turn leads to higher premium demands for new issues and repricing in the secondary market. “ Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 26 October 2023 3 of 8 The Belgian BNP Fortis issue last Friday is a good example. It should also be noted that in the course of the new issue offer, clients are increasingly selling secondaries with similar maturities and jurisdictions, presumably in order to collect the new issue premiums offered. The lack of new demand is becoming apparent and is therefore at odds with what the order books suggest. Outlook: The environment remains one of uncertainty. At least this week's successful issues have shown that the primary market is receptive. Nevertheless, supply is likely to gradually decline in the coming weeks. Senior Unsecured As expected, activity in the primary market for senior unsecured bank bonds is low this week. This is due to the ongoing bank reporting season and the associated blackout period. The three transac- tions that have taken place so far this week have all gone fairly smoothly, with Portuguese savings bank Banco Montepio managing to fill the order book well despite its weak rating, albeit in sub-benchmark volumes and at a very attractive yield of just under 10% on a three-year tenor. The issuance of a non-preferred bond by DNB Bank and a preferred bond by Nationwide Building Society were very successful - both were almost three times oversubscribed. DNB Bank's issue has a 6-year maturity and carries the green label, while Nationwide opted for a 3-year maturity. This week marks the peak of the quarterly reporting season for banks. As expected, the focus is on net interest income, credit quality and share buybacks. Deutsche Bank, for example, made headlines with its announcement that it would return up to EUR 3 billion of capital to its shareholders. Overall, the sector continues to enjoy rising net interest income with problem loan ratios remaining low. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that net interest income will soon stabilise at a normalised level and will not increase further. Swedbank spooked investors today with the prospect of a "to level off" in net interest income. At French sector leader BNP Paribas, by contrast, it was weak fixed income revenues that disappointed today. The quarterly reporting season for European banks continues next week. The focus is likely to remain on the out- look for interest income and problem loan ratios. Competition for customer deposits is intensifying and banks are under increasing pressure to pass on higher interest rates to customers (the so-called deposit beta). In addition, inflation, higher interest rates and the difficult economic environment are weighing on the outlook for new lend- ing. Overall, however, banks continue to earn high interest income in the current interest rate environment and have good balance sheet quality. Risk buffers in the form of loan loss provisions and core capital are high, and share buybacks are even continuing. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 3,500% Helaba Aaa /-/AAA 0,750 Mrd. 31.08.2027 ms +15 Bp 24.10.2023 0,952 Mrd. ms + 18 area 3,625% SpareBank 1 Boligkreditt Aaa /-/- 1,000 Mrd. 31.07.2028 ms +36 Bp 24.10.2023 1,500 Mrd. ms + 40 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Covered Bond issues week of 23 October 2023 „Investor flows remain below average. Overall, they are becoming more balanced after last week's large ma- jority on the money side. Real money is still on the move on both sides. However, only a few asset managers and insurance companies are currently buying mid/long maturities. These requests are being aggressively serviced by dealers to reduce inventory and therefore risk with an eye to further new issuance and the end of the year. “ Comment from the Helaba trading floor Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 26 October 2023 4 of 8 Outlook: As the reporting season progresses, the blackout periods are gradually coming to an end, allowing is- suers to return to the primary market. The market environment in this segment appears receptive. However, the houses have issued significant amounts so far this year and have already achieved a high level of pre-funding. Chart of the Week According to the Bank Lending Survey published by the ECB on Tuesday, the institutions continued to tighten their corporate lending standards in the third quarter of 2023 (net share of banks at 12%, after 14% in the second quarter of 2023). Since 2022, banks' lending prudence has thus increased significantly, which is in line with the noticeable slowdown in lend- ing momentum, according to the ECB. The share of banks reporting a tightening however declined slightly compared to the previous quarter, but remained above the historical average of 9% for the sixth quarter in a row. The net tightening of credit standards was slightly higher for loans to SMEs (net share of 14%, after 17%) than for loans to large corporates (12%, after 13%). Moreover, the tightening was stronger for long-term loans (14%, after 15%) than for short-term loans (9%, after 10%). At the same time, net corporate credit demand in the euro area continued to decline significantly in the third quar- ter of 2023 (net percentage of -36%, down from -42% in the second quarter of 2023), with the net percentage of banks only slightly above the all-time low of the previous quarter. As in the previous quarters, the decline was sig- nificantly stronger than expected by the banks. Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 10,000% Caixa Económica Montepio Geral , caixa económica bancária, S.A. B1 /-/B+ 0,200 Mrd. 30.10.2026 ms +620 Bp 23.10.2023 0,240 Mrd. 10.000% area 4,500% Nationwide Building Society A1 /A+/A+ 1,250 Mrd. 01.11.2026 ms +100 Bp 25.10.2023 3,600 Mrd. ms + 125 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Preferred issues week of 23 October 2023 Coupon Issuer Rating (M/S&P/F) Volume € Tap Maturity Launch-Spread vs. Mid-Swaps ESG Launch Orderbook 1st Spread- Indication 4,625% DNB Bank ASA A2 /A/- 0,750 Mrd. 01.11.2029 ms +130 Bp  24.10.2023 2,200 Mrd. ms + 155 area Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba DCM € Senior Non-preferred issues week of 23 October 2023 Issuer Date Issuer Date UNICREDIT SPA 10/24 CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG-REG 10/26 BARCLAYS PLC 10/24 BNP PARIBAS 10/26 UNICREDIT BANK AG 10/25 STANDARD CHARTERED PLC 10/26 OP CORPORATE BANK PLC 10/25 SPAREBANKEN M ORE-CAP CERT 10/26 LLOYDS BANKING GROUP PLC 10/25 SPAREBANK 1 SR BANK ASA 10/26 BANCO SANTANDER SA 10/25 SPAREBANKEN SOR 10/26 DEUTSCHE BANK AG-REGISTERED 10/25 SWEDBANK AB - A SHARES 10/26 SPAREBANKEN VEST 10/25 DANSKE BANK A/S 10/27 SKANDINAVISKA ENSKILDA BAN-A 10/25 NATWEST GROUP PLC 10/27 Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Reporting dates of selected banks Stricter lending for companies ASW spread in bp. bp. Sources: Refinitiv, ECB, Helaba Research & Advisory -50 -20 10 40 70 100 -50 -20 10 40 70 100 11/15 05/16 11/16 05/17 11/17 05/18 11/18 05/19 11/19 05/20 11/20 05/21 11/21 05/22 11/22 05/23 11/23 bank lending standards for enterprises corporate demand for loans expected for the next quarter Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 26 October 2023 5 of 8 Short news 10/23 New regulation to promote sustainable finance: The European Council adopted a regula- tion creating a European green bond standard. The regulation lays down uniform requirements for issuers of bonds that wish to use the designation ‘European green bond’ or ‘EuGB’ for their environmentally sus- tainable bonds. The new standard will foster consistency and comparability in the green bond market, benefitting both issuers and investors of green bonds. 10/23 Eurozone lenders and borrowers shun credit as rates climb: Eurozone banks further curbed access to credit in the third quarter even as demand from households and companies fell more than expected amid high borrowing costs and a deteriorating economic outlook, the European Central Bank’s Bank Lending Survey showed. Banks expect a further, albeit less pronounced, decline in demand for all types of loans in the fourth quar- ter, Reuters adds. 10/23 Single Supervisory Mechanism: where do we stand after 10 years?: Alessandra Perrazzelli, Deputy Gover- nor of the Bank of Italy, outlined the main future achievements and challenges in the field of banking supervision. "Three concepts must remain our guiding stars: a rigorous approach, cooperation, and openness to innovation," she says in a speech published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). 10/23 Credit Suisse: Resolution could have worked: The Credit Suisse resolution measures could have worked, but more needs to be done to improve regulation and supervision. This is the conclusion of the reports of the Ba- sel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) and the Financial Stability Board (FSB) regarding the takeover of Credit Suisse. The Swiss Bankers Association (SBA) remains in favor of targeted and effective adaptations of the prudential framework. 10/23 The role of banks in biodiversity conservation: Besides climate change, the preservation of biodiversity is one of the central challenges of our time. This paper by the Association of German Banks (BdB) reflects on the link between biodiversity and the banking sector, especially considering the foundational role the latter could play in financing sustainable transformation. 10/20 Global Covered Bond Insights Q4 2023: Housing market weathering correction: According to S&P Global Ratings, rising interest rates have triggered a prolonged correction in European real estate markets. Although demand is slowing and prices are falling, asset quality remains well supported by stable employment and high savings rates during the pandemic. However, European GDP growth is slowing and labour markets are weakening. In addition, the impact of tighter monetary policy on European household budgets is lagging significantly. S&P Global expects house prices to remain under pressure until 2025. The report examines the impact of the housing correction on covered bond performance. 10/20 The art and science of good supervision: "Non-banks’ market share is rising," says European Central Bank Supervisory Board member Elizabeth McCaul. Risk linked to leverage, counterparty credit and liquidity mis- matches all deserve our attention. 10/19 Banking turmoil to shape sector monitoring in 2024: EU banking regulators have set specific objectives for their 2024 checks on lenders to reflect lessons from global banking turmoil earlier this year, the European Banking Authority (EBA) says. According to Reuters, this includes asking for specific checks on liquidity and funding risks at banks, the impact of higher interest rates on their business models, and how they can recover from shocks and maintain resilience. 10/19 Priorities for prudential supervisors for 2024: The European Banking Authority (EBA) published the Euro- pean Supervisory Examination Programme (ESEP) for 2024, which identifies key topics for heightened supervisory attention across the European Union. Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 26 October 2023 6 of 8 \* Closing prices from the previous day Sources: Refinitiv, Helaba Research & Advisory Market Data (current\*, vs. 1 week, vs. 4 weeks) E-STOXX 600 Banks 153 -4,36% -3,94% iBoxx € Cov. Germany 16,6 0,4 3,2 iTraxx Senior Financial 100,2 1,6 6,9 10Yr-Yield 2,89 -0,03 0,06 iBoxx € Cov. Bonds 29,4 0,4 3,2 iBoxx € Supranational 21,9 -0,1 3,3 Swap 10J 3,44 -0,04 0,06 iBoxx € Banks PS 90,1 1,9 12,4 iBoxx € Agencies 6,9 -0,1 1,5 iBoxx € Germany -39,88 0,61 0,08 iBoxx Banks NPS 119,7 -0,3 11,0 iBoxx € Sub-Sov. Germany 12,7 -0,1 1,6 iBoxx € EU 28,45 0,19 3,23 iBoxx Banks Subordinated 208,9 1,8 13,7 iBoxx € Sub-Sovereign 29,4 0,2 3,6 Leisure tip for the weekend: German toy museum, Sonneberg Do you have ideas for leisure tips? We would be happy to receive your suggestions at research@helaba.de. Source: https://www. Thueringen.info/deutsches-spielzeugmuseum.html Look, marvel, play - immerse yourself in a new world of imagination! There are 5,000 toys waiting to be discovered at the German Toy Museum in Sonneberg. The oldest toy collection in Germany shows toys from their beginnings to the present day. The exhibition of rare and remarkable exhibits in the historic museum building takes you on a journey through the cultural history of toys. Find out more: German toy museum Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 26 October 2023 7 of 8 Chartbook SSAs, Covered Bonds, Senior Unsecured Senior Unsecured: Primary volumes Senior Unsecured: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 Senior Non-preferred 2023 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Preferred 2022 Senior Non-preferred 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 10/22 12/22 02/23 04/23 06/23 08/23 10/23 Banks Subordinated Banks Senior Bail-in Banks Senior Preferred Covered Bonds: Primary volumes Covered Bonds: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2023 2022 2021 -2 2 6 10 14 18 22 26 30 -2 2 6 10 14 18 22 26 30 10/22 12/22 02/23 04/23 06/23 08/23 10/23 EUR Covered Covered Germany SSAs: Primary volumes SSAs: Spread development EUR benchmark issue volume cumulative by weeks, bn EUR ASW spread, bp Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory Sources: Bloomberg, Helaba Research & Advisory 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 2022 2021 2023 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 -25 -15 -5 5 15 25 35 10/22 12/22 02/23 04/23 06/23 08/23 10/23 Sub-Sovereigns Agencies Supranationals Sub-Sovereigns Germany Focus on: SSAs & Financials – Weekly Market Update © Helaba | Research & Advisory | 26 October 2023 8 of 8 News from Research & Advisory  FOCUS on Credit: ESG ratings: Relevance, regulation and responses  Focus on Credit: Primary Market Update Bank Bonds  Focus on Credit: Corporate Schuldschein: Prejudices are out of place"  Focus on Credit: EUR Corporate bonds - Primary market Q3 2023  Video: Sustainable Finance – ICMA & Helaba Talk 2023  Focus on Credit: Social and sustainability bonds: ICMA Principles - the freestyle ele- ment makes all the difference  European banks: An optimistic outlook for 2023 Team of authors Publisher and editorial office Helaba Research & Advisory Editor: Sabrina Miehs Corporate Research & Advisory Responsible: Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chefvolkswirtin/ Head of Research & Advisory Neue Mainzer Str. 52-58 60311 Frankfurt am Main T +49 69 / 91 32 – 20 24 Internet: www.helaba.com Disclaimer This publication has been prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains only non-binding analyses and forecasts of current and future market conditions. The information is based on sources which we consider to be reliable, but for whose accuracy, completeness or up-to-dateness we cannot assume any liability. All state- ments made in this publication are for information purposes only. They must not be understood as an offer or recommendation for investment de- cisions. Here you can subscribe to our newsletter: https://news.helaba.de/research/ Dr. Susanne Knips Senior Credit Analyst T 069/91 32-32 11 Sabrina Miehs, CESGA Head of FI & SSA Research Senior Advisor Sustainable Finance T 069/91 32-48 90 Christian Schmidt Covered Bond & SSA Analyst T 069/91 32-23 88

SSA: NRW issue stands out. Covered Bonds: Uncertain environment. Senior Unsecured: Issuers more active again soon. Chart of the Week: Tighter credit standards for corporates.